Improbable , a colt trainer Bob Baffert previously called "Baby Justify "—a reference to his 2018 Triple Crown winner—is living up to the hype in 2020.
Racing Sept. 26 in the $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park, the 4-year-old City Zip colt won his third consecutive grade 1 by defeating stablemate and 3-5 favorite Maximum Security by 4 1/2 lengths. This followed top-level scores in the Whitney Stakes (G1) and Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) over the summer.
Though he performed at his best in the Awesome Again, Improbable received an assist from several rivals in the 1 1/8-mile dirt race who never gave Maximum Security a chance to catch a breather.
Take the One O One shot to the lead with splits of :23.33, :46.36, and 1:09.79, but it was what was immediately unfolding behind him that seemed to compromise Maximum Security. The 1-2 favorite was blanketed by a pace-chasing foe to his inside in Sleepy Eyes Todd and one on his outside in Midcourt.
Watching this unfold, jockey Drayden Van Dyke allowed Improbable to fall farther off the pace than usual. Kept all by himself in last, free of traffic behind the four speed horses, Van Dyke then called him into action on the second turn, and Improbable did the rest.
Six lengths off the leader after a half-mile, Improbable pulled within 3 1/2 lengths after six furlongs and was in front soon after turning into the stretch. He opened up a three-length advantage with a furlong to run and continued pulling away under confident handling.
He finished in 1:49.01 on a fast track, paying $5.60 as the second choice in the field of five.
Improbable was a bit antsy in the starting gate, a typical issue for him, but was under control when it was sprung and broke sharply.
"The gate guy did a fabulous job with him, holding him still—he got out clean," said Van Dyke. "I was going to see what everyone else was gonna do, and they did what they did and I did what I did, and it worked out good."
Maximum Security, who came under early urging on the second turn from Luis Saez, did not produce his customary top-notch performance. He was a bit slow to change leads in the stretch but grabbed the place, a half-length ahead of wide-racing Midcourt, who settled for the show.
"There was a lot of pressure along the way and he couldn’t get comfortable, but that’s how these races go. You win sometimes and don’t others," Saez said. "The good thing is he pulled up pretty good, so let’s see how next time goes. He was fighting at the end of the race, but we lost.”
The Improbable-Maximum Security outcome gave Baffert a 1-2 finish. Baffert began training Maximum Security this spring after former trainer Jason Servis was indicted on doping-related charges in March.
Take the One O One and Sleepy Eyes Todd completed the order of finish.
The Awesome Again was just the second meeting between Improbable and Maximum Security following an encounter in the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1 at Churchill Downs. That day, Maximum Security crossed the wire first before he was disqualified and placed 17th for interference, while beaten favorite Improbable saw his position elevated from fifth to fourth when largely unaffected by Maximum Security's erratic run.
The Derby was one of numerous disappointments from Improbable at age 3. He also ran sixth as the public choice in the Preakness Stakes (G1) last year.
His Awesome Again score gave Baffert his sixth victory in the race, the final major prep on the West Coast leading up to the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
It was the second Awesome Again for Van Dyke, who won on the Baffert-trained Mubtaahij in 2017.
Saturday's score was the seventh in 14 starts for Improbable, who was bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. from the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event. He is one of two winners from his dam, who also has a yearling colt by Cross Traffic .
Bought for $200,000 by Maverick Racing and China Horse Club from the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Improbable increased his earnings to $1,709,520. He raced for owners WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing.
Saturday's race was a Breeders' Cup Challenge event for the Nov. 7 Classic at Keeneland, though that was of little consequence for Improbable. He already earned an automatic, paid berth in the Classic by winning the Whitney.
"I hate to see my horses have to beat the other horse, but ‘Max’ ran gallantly," Baffert said. "He fended off the speed but the next one is the big one, but today it was all about Improbable.”
Twice this past decade, Awesome Again winners took the Classic: Mucho Macho Man in 2013 and Accelerate in 2018.
None of Baffert's five other Awesome Again winners scored in the Classic. The trainer has won the marquee Breeders' Cup event with 3-year-olds Bayern (2014), American Pharoah (2015), and Arrogate (2016).
