Two weeks out from the Breeders' Cup, restricted stakes runners have their day in the sun Oct. 24. The Empire Classic Handicap tops an Empire Showcase Day program with eight stakes worth a combined $1.2 million at Belmont Park, and the Maryland Million Classic headlines a 12-race Maryland Millions Day card at Laurel Park.
The richest race in North America is the $400,000 Breeders' Stakes for Ontario-bred 3-year-olds at Woodbine, where the one-eyed Mighty Heart, winner of the Queen's Plate Stakes and Prince Of Wales Stakes, bids to become the 13th horse—and first since Wando in 2003—to sweep the Canadian Triple Crown.
The only graded event on the calendar is the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (G3T) for filly and mare turf sprinters at Santa Anita Park, which features Magic At Midnight making her stakes debut after four front-running triumphs in as many starts.
Working backward chronologically:
Sen. Ken Maddy (SA, race 8, 7:37 ET): There's no secret regarding the tactics for Magic At Midnight (5), who has enjoyed clear leads each and every time out. Only one of those races was on turf, though, when the daughter of Midnight Lute returned from a layoff of nearly a year in mid-summer at Del Mar. Granted she may be loose up front again, but I can't hang my hat on a favorite in a spot where everyone else has stakes experience except her.
Jo Jo Air (1) has won stakes each of the past two years for Wesley Ward and had an excuse (yielding turf) when beaten at odds-on in her recent return from a layoff. She gets a switch back to Flavien Prat, who was up for her win in the Daisycutter Handicap two back.
An Eddie Surprise (3) is among a trio of Doug O'Neill-trained entrants. She hasn't been out since taking the restricted Wishing Well Stakes eight months ago, but a solid work tab suggests she may fire fresh.
Aqua Seaform Shame (6) comes off a rallying second in the Unzip Me Stakes, her first loss from three turf sprints.
A — 1, 3
B — 5, 6
Breeders' Stakes (WO, race 10, 5:43 ET): Josie Carroll sends out the two favorites in the 129th edition of this 1 1/2-mile grass route, Mighty Heart (8) and Belichick (9), and it feels as though either can win.
Mighty Heart's grass ability can't be accurately assessed based on one try as a second-time turf starter, as he has clearly blossomed since leaving New Orleans early in the year. His sire Dramedy won the 2015 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes (G2T) at a mile and a half on grass. Mighty Heart doesn't need the lead, as he showed in an off-the-pace win in the Prince Of Wales, but there isn't much speed in this match-up so he may go right to the front as he did in the Queen's Plate.
Although still a maiden, Belichick closed with good energy for second in the Queen's Plate after steadying at the start and encountering traffic approaching the stretch. He seems like a run-all-day type who will relish this trip.
Clayton (3), third in the Queen's Plate and second in the Prince Of Wales, tries turf for the first time and seemingly has just as good a chance of liking it as Mighty Heart.
The pedigree play at a 12-1 morning-line price is English Conqueror (5), who is by 2007 grass champion English Channel, a multiple grade 1 winner at this distance, and out of Regal Conqueror, a winner on turf for English Conqueror's trainer, Darwin Banach. Regal Conqueror was sired by Sky Conqueror, back-to-back winner of the 1 1/2-mile Northern Dancer Stakes (G2T) on Woodbine turf in 2006-07. English Conqueror is taking a big step up after a hard-fought maiden win in which he turned back three late challenges and galloped out with good energy. His figure pattern—paired tops—indicates a potential forward move may be forthcoming.
A — 8, 9
B — 3, 5
Empire Classic (Bel, race 10, 5:05 ET): The winners of the last three renewals of the Albany Stakes, Sea Foam (2018), Funny Guy (2019), and the $2 million Tapit colt Chestertown (2020), take on defending Empire Classic winner Mr. Buff in a solid edition of this one-turn route at nine furlongs.
Mr. Buff (2) has been freshened for 12 weeks since setting the pace for six furlongs in the Whitney Stakes(G1). He's run okay fresh before, but it's fair to wonder about the potential readiness of a heavily raced 6-year-old gelding making his 40th start. That's especially true since he figures to have his hands full early with Sea Foam (7), a front-running winner of both of his races on fast tracks this year.
Funny Guy (3) gets some class relief after respectable tries as the favorite in the Forego Presented By America's Best Racing (G1) and the Vosburgh Stakes (G2). He has won each of his last three stakes starts against fellow New York-breds including a decision over Mr. Buff and Bankit in the Commentator to begin his 2020 campaign.
Among other good efforts, Bankit (5) was a fast-closing second to Funny Guy in last year's Albany. The deep closer may get the right kind of setup here.
A — 3, 5
B — 2, 7
Maryland Million Classic (Lrl, race 11, 4:53 ET): It's tough to see past Harpers First Ride (5) and Top Line Growth (7), who respectively bring to the table 6-for-7 and 4-for-4 records over the track and come off sharp efforts in graded stakes company, the former taking the Pimlico Special Stakes (G3) and the latter finishing second in the Salvator Mile Stakes (G3).
Neither has won at Saturday's 1 1/8 miles, however, so Cordmaker (4) makes the play in backup mode. The hard-knocker has been beaten three times by Harpers First Ride this season but appears to be gradually rounding back to top form.
A — 5, 7
B — 4
