If you want to know who will be crowned champion 2-year-old colt in Europe, the winner of the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (G1) is usually the first port of call, but if you want to know who will be coming home in front in the first classic the following season, the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (G1) is the place to go.
The past three Dewhurst winners, US Navy Flag, Too Darn Hot, and Pinatubo, are all retired, and of those only Pinatubo lined up in the QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas (G1), finishing third.
Conversely, Kameko, Magna Grecia, and Saxon Warrior all progressed from Doncaster to win at Newmarket the following spring, while Camelot also completed the Futurity/Guineas double in the past 10 years.
As is normal for this time of year, Aidan O'Brien is seemingly inundated with high-quality juveniles, and at Monday's entries stage had seven options for this race. Interestingly, he opted to send only one of those seven to Town Moor, although Wembley was arguably his strongest contender.
Not since 2012 has there been a Futurity without multiple O'Brien runners in the field, but that year Kingsbarns won for the yard. Wembley deserves to head the market on the strength of his seconds in the Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (G1) at the Curragh and the Dewhurst.
O'Brien said: "He hasn't done a whole lot since the Dewhurst. We were delighted with his run there, and he seems to be in very good form since."
While O'Brien has nine Futurity winners to his credit, Charlie Appleby has yet to strike in the race. In fairness to the Godolphin trainer, he has not targeted this contest too often, and One Ruler will be his first runner since 2017.
The winner of the Emirates Autumn Stakes (G3) last time, One Ruler should have no problems with the mile trip, nor soft ground, as evidenced by his victory at Newmarket, where he asserted in the closing stages, although he may have been on the best ground against the stands' rail. He has progressed and boasts solid claims.
Appleby is hopeful for One Ruler. He said: "We were obviously very pleased with One Ruler's win in the Autumn Stakes, when he handled the soft ground well and the step up to a mile suited.
"We're confident a repeat performance of his latest start is going to make him very competitive."
The case for King Vega is not as straightforward. He is trained by Andrew Balding, who won the race last year with Kameko and that is an obvious plus, although it must be weighed against the fact King Vega is a two-race maiden. The last maiden to win this was Authorized in 2006 when the race was staged at Newbury.
King Vega was second on his debut in a Sandown maiden, then filled the same position in the Betway Solario Stakes (G3) there. The form of those two starts is decent but looks a touch short of being group 1 class.
"I'm really pleased with the horse," Balding said on Sky Sports Racing. "We've always rated him really highly, and he ran a very decent race in the Solario last time. The extra furlong will certainly be to his advantage. I don't think the ground conditions will be too much of a concern for him."
