March comes in like a lion in terms of qualifying races for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). There are five 85-point contests (50-20-10-5) in all: The Gotham Stakes (G3), San Felipe Stakes (G2), and Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) for males, along with the Busher Invitational Stakes and Honeybee Stakes (G3) for fillies.
The San Felipe kicks off a Rainbow Pick Six with a mandatory payout at Santa Anita Park that continues on through a strong renewal of the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes (G1T), and the unbeaten Maxfield heading the Santa Anita Handicap Sponsored by San Manuel Casino (G1). Many bettors will start off the sequence singling the Bob Baffert-trained Life Is Good in the San Felipe.
At Aqueduct Racetrack, the Gotham and Busher are supported by the Tom Fool Handicap (G3) and Heavenly Prize Invitational Stakes. The Gotham looms a showdown between Highly Motivated , who set a track record winning the Nyquist Stakes on the Breeders' Cup undercard Nov. 6, and Freedom Fighter, who ships cross-country for Baffert after a sharp second in the San Vicente Stakes (G3).
The Tampa Bay Derby climaxes a five-stakes card that also includes the Hillsborough Stakes (G2T) and Florida Oaks Stakes (G3T), but a rainy forecast could significantly alter the complexion of grass racing there.
San Carlos Stakes (SA, race 8, 6:52 ET): This is an unusual situation because there are no graded sprint stakes winners in this seven-furlong affair, and the first two betting choices, Tigre Di Slugo (9) and Brickyard Ride (6), have never been past six furlongs on dirt.
We're keying on the only graded winners of any kind, Storm the Court (1) and Extra Hope (2). Storm the Court hasn't won since lighting up the board in the 2019 TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) but appears well suited to the cutback and surface switch after battling up front to deep stretch in the Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (G2T) and Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1T). Extra Hope captured the Native Diver Stakes (G3) in his penultimate outing last year, and he has run well twice previously when turned back to seven-eighths.
A — 1, 2
B — 6, 9
Frank E. Kilroe Mile (SA, race 9, 7:26 ET): There are seven graded stakes winners in the field and that's not counting Flavius (6), who set a course record in the $645,700 Tourist Mile Stakes last September at Kentucky Downs.
Flavius is among six horses shipping in from South Florida, and the Juddmonte Farms homebred represents a rare opportunity to bet a Chad Brown-trained runner at a square price.
Trips often tell the tale in two-turn mile races on the grass, and with a short run to the first turn we're leaning inside with Smooth Like Straight (1), Hit the Road (2), and Social Paranoia (3).
Umberto Rispoli has been riding Smooth Like Straight and Hit the Road regularly, and he sticks with the former, who makes his 4-year-old debut and first attempt against older stakes horses.
Hit the Road picks up Florent Geroux—nothing lost there—and goes in search of a fourth straight victory after a sharp comeback score in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3T) over the course and trip.
Social Paranoia comes off a wide pace-pressing effort from post 12 in the Pegasus Turf at 1 3/16 miles, and while the hard-knocking son of Street Boss has run well going long—notably a win in the 2019 Exacta Systems Dueling Grounds Derby—his fastest races have come at a flat mile.
Lukewarm morning-line favorite Ride a Comet (9) wasn't well served by the post position draw but it's otherwise hard to fault the 6-year-old son of Candy Ride , whose only loss from six grass races came on yielding ground.
A — 2, 3
B — 1, 6, 9
Santa Anita Handicap (SA, race 10, 8:00 ET): Maxfield (2) will be heavily favored to run his record to six wins from as many starts, but there are enough questions about the Street Sense colt to seek plenty of coverage as he ventures past 1 1/16 miles for the first time, also races without Lasix for the first time, and spots weight to seven rivals.
Idol (6) finished behind some of these when second in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) and third in the San Pasqual Stakes (G3) behind second choice Express Train (5), but galloped out in front past the wire each time and is capable of turning the tables at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. A switch to Joel Rosario bodes well for the 4-year-old by Curlin , who romped at 1 3/16 miles three races back.
The other Curlin in the lineup is Coastal Defense (4), who was a close fourth in the Hagyard Fayette Stakes (G2) and Clark Stakes Presented By Norton Healthcare (G1), before a lackluster sixth in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1). The latter race marked the third time he has failed to fire over the main track at Gulfstream Park, so maybe he just doesn't like that surface. He adds blinkers and has wake-up potential at the distance, as his half brother Hawkbill won the 2018 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) at about 1 1/2 miles.
A — 2, 6
B — 4, 5
Tampa Bay Derby (Tam, race 11, 5:25 ET): The prospect of a wet track could be a stumbling block for morning-line choice Candy Man Rocket (3), who spun his wheels in the slop first time out, but then romped against maidens at Gulfstream and came right back to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Nevertheless, he has posted two good works for this and has the tactical speed to sit a nice trip.
Hidden Stash (8) was a rallying third in the Sam Davis first out this year. He exhibits a nice development pattern figure-wise, having never taken a backward step, and is reuniting with Rafael Bejarano, who was aboard for both wins in Kentucky last fall.
The back-up team consists of King of Dreams (4), who has striking parallels to last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner King Guillermo (check his past performances in the Big 'Cap); and the Todd Pletcher-trained pair of Unbridled Honor (9) and Promise Keeper (11), who step up from maiden victories four weeks ago.
Like King Guillermo, who posted a 49-1 upset in the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby, King of Dreams was a buy as a juvenile from the Ocala Breeders' Sales Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Moreover, King Guillermo was switching from turf to dirt along with a switch from Emisael Jaramillo to Samy Camacho, and so is King of Dreams. Could it be déjà vu all over again?
A — 3, 8
B — 4, 9, 11
