When a 2-1 morning-line favorite such as Medina Spirit is scratched from a grade 1, it's usually good news for the outsiders in the race.
But that's not exactly the case with the Sept. 25 Pennsylvania Derby (G1).
BLOODHORSE: Medina Spirit Out of PA Derby, Pointed to Awesome Again
When posts were drawn for the 1 1/8-mile $1 million test for 3-year-olds, the connections of the seven other starters were no doubt delighted at the prospect of a heated duel on the front end after the three speedy favorites (Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Medina Spirit) drew the 7-9 posts at Parx Racing.
There were no doubt visions of brutal fractions that could render some or all of the favorites vulnerable in the final furlong. But those hopes dimmed a bit a day later when trainer Bob Baffert announced Sept. 21 that Medina Spirit, the expected pacesetter in the Pennsylvania Derby, would remain in California to run in the Oct. 2 Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
For Robertino Diodoro, who trains the late-running Keepmeinmind , news of Medina Spirit's defection offered a dose of good news-bad news.
"In a way you don't mind seeing Medina Spirit out of there but with a horse like ours it's going to take away a bit of the pace factor," Diodoro said. "It helps a few horses, but not us."
The feeling was quite different from the camps of Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon.
"Win, lose, or draw it's an easier race without Medina Spirit in there," said Doug O'Neill, who trains Hot Rod Charlie. "It's still a very contentious race. You have Midnight Bourbon, 'Charlie,' and a few up-and-comers who are Rookie of the Year candidates that are coming in from Triple-A who can knock one out of the park. It's still a tough, tough race, but with Medina Spirit out of there, though the pace will still be heated, it won't be as heated as it would have been with Medina Spirit in there."
Medina Spirit led from start to finish in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) with Hot Rod Charlie third and Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon sixth after a sluggish start. A son of Oxbow owned by Boat Racing, Gainesway Stable, Roadrunner Racing, and William Strauss, Hot Rod Charlie displayed his speed and quality five weeks later when he set a demanding :46.49 half-mile split in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) and still managed to finish a game second behind 2-year-old champion Essential Quality .
Hot Rod Charlie was the 5-2 second choice in the morning line for the Pennsylvania Derby and now looms a bet-down favorite at post time.
Midnight Bourbon, a son of Tiznow trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, is 5-1 on the line and likely to drop in price with Medina Spirit out. He has been either first or second at the halfway point of six of his last seven races—the troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby was the lone exception—and efforts like setting the pace in the Aug. 28 Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) and losing by a neck to Essential Quality illustrates why he should be prominent on Saturday.
"It changes the pace projection, obviously. All three of those horses had been successful staying on the front end. It's one less pace factor," said David Fiske, racing manager for Winchell Thoroughbreds. "I think it helps us somewhat, but there are other good horses in there and it may encourage someone else in the race to shoot out for the lead. Maybe someone down on the fence. It doesn't move us closer to the rail, but there's arguably less pace in the race."
With Medina Spirit landing post 9 at the Sept. 20 draw, the only 3-year-old whose post will be impacted is Americanrevolution , who will now break from the ninth and final spot in the gate.
Hot Rod Charlie will remain in post 7 and Midnight Bourbon in post 8, putting an emphasis on how smoothly each one breaks from the gate. While neither horse needs to be in front early to win, it would be a surprise if they are more than a length or two off the lead on the backstretch of the two-turn dirt test for 3-year-olds.
"We came to the conclusion yesterday, whether it's right or not, you have to play the break and see where you wind up. If you get a good break and you're a half-length in front you go on," Fiske said. "But if someone crashes into you leaving the gate and you lose a length or two, you have to come up with a different plan. The riders will have to figure it out. It will depend on the break and our horse usually breaks well."
As for the others, Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Weyburn, who has been first or second in the early to mid-stages of his last six starts, Speaker's Corner , a Street Sense colt stretching out beyond seven furlongs for the first time, Americanrevolution, and the Pennsylvania-bred I Am Redeemed should also be fairly close in the early furlongs.
Keepmeinmind , who rallied from last to finish second to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), Fulsome , and Bourbonic figure to play the role of closers who would love to see extremely rapid early fractions.
Cyprus Creek Equine, Arnold Bennewith, and Spendthrift Farm's Keepmeinmind, at 8-1, was the only other entrant at less than 12-1 in the original morning line.
Parx Racing, Saturday, September 25, 2021, Race 12Entries: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Fulsome (KY) Florent Geroux 124 Brad H. Cox 12/1 2 2Keepmeinmind (KY) Joel Rosario 119 Robertino Diodoro 8/1 3 3Speaker's Corner (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 119 William I. Mott 12/1 4 4Weyburn (ON) Paco Lopez 124 James A. Jerkens 12/1 5 5I Am Redeemed (PA) Abner Adorno 119 Penny Pearce 20/1 6 6Bourbonic (KY) Kendrick Carmouche 124 Todd A. Pletcher 12/1 7 7Hot Rod Charlie (KY) Flavien Prat 124 Doug F. O'Neill 5/2 8 8Midnight Bourbon (KY) Ricardo Santana, Jr. 124 Steven M. Asmussen 5/1 9 9Medina Spirit (FL) John R. Velazquez 126 Bob Baffert 2/1 10 10Americanrevolution (NY) Luis Saez 122 Todd A. Pletcher 15/1
