When a grade 1 winner on dirt is entered in a turf race for the first time during a rainy period, the logical conclusion is that the connections are hoping for soggy ground and a switch to the main track.
But that's not the case with Leave No Trace.
The 3-year-old filly won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) a year ago and then was second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), yet when the entries came out for the Oct. 14 $200,000 Sands Point Stakes (G2T) at Aqueduct Racetrack, there she was among a group of 13 3-year-old fillies.
But she was not one of three main track only entrants.
With forecasts calling for a 90% chance of rain in the area on Saturday, it would seem to tip trainer Phil Serpe's hand in regards to Leave No Trace. But Serpe, just like the trainers of the top turfers in the race, is hoping the rain will stay away from Ozone Park, N.Y., home of the Big A.
"Her next start is going to be turf," Serpe said. "She is either going to be a dynamic turf horse or a dynamic broodmare. We'll find out on Saturday."
WellSpring Stables' daughter of Outwork skyrocketed to a spot as a finalist for the Eclipse Award as the champion 2-year-old filly through her grade 1 win and runner-up finish at the World Championships, but Leave No Trace struggled mightily in her two starts since then, losing by a combined 121 lengths.
Some cannon bruising and a small ankle chip explained the first of them, a March 4 3-year-old debut and 65 3/4-length loss when eased in the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. But after surgery and rest, the daughter of the Good Journey mare Tanquerray returned in an Aug. 30 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga Race Course and finished an eased-up 55 1/2 lengths behind, bringing Serpe back to square one from a year ago and prompting the decision to race her on turf for the first time.
"From the time this filly walked into the barn as a 2-year-old, we all kind of figured she was going to be a grass horse. She's got pedigree for it. She's built for it. She has the long pastern, the foot. The whole nine yards," Serpe said. "But she did so well on dirt as a 2-year-old, though we know that can happen with horses when they are young. Things happen. Look at Wonder Wheel (the Juvenile Fillies winner and 2-year-old filly champion who was retired in July after finishing unplaced in three straight stakes). When 2-year-olds are good, there's a fine line that can affect them later on. It happens to a few of them. It's one of those things."
After the Spa debacle, Serpe took the unusual step of giving her a workout four days later, this time on turf.
"A few days after the race, since she came out of it fresh, I worked her on the turf and she had a really, really good work," Serpe said about the four-furlong :47 3/5 turf work on Sept. 3. "It was what I hoped and expected to see and this is the direction we are going. It was a great work without really trying and her gallop out was great which we didn't see on dirt. She went :59 and change. I was very happy with that."
In one sense a clock is ticking for the connections. The Outwork filly is entered in the Nov. 8-16 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale and before the decision to sell her is finalized, they would like to see how she performs on turf. A good showing and she will likely run next year. Another poor effort and she'll embark on a new career on a breeding farm.
"We don't want to sell her, but we have to face facts. If she doesn't run well on turf, she's going to have a new job as a broodmare," said Serpe who registered his first graded stakes win since 2011 and first grade 1 victory since 1993 with the filly bred by Red Cloak Farm in Kentucky.
Should rain cause a switch to the main track, Serpe said the fallback option is the Oct. 27 Valley View Stakes (G3T) at Keeneland. He would also be willing to run her in an allowance race. Suffice it to say, dirt racing is a thing of the past.
"I don't care if it's a stakes or allowance race," he said. "We need to find out how she handles turf before the sale."
Bought for $40,000 from the Vinery Sales consignment at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Eastern Fall Yearling Sale, Leave No Trace has won two of her six starts with earnings of $602,450.
The field of 13 for the mile and an eighth Sands Point, which includes the aforementioned three main track only starters, is topped by Godolphin's Eternal Hope. Trained by Charlie Appleby, the homebred daughter of Teofilo won the Sept. 16 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes (G3T) at the Belmont at the Big A meet in her initial United States start.
Also entered are JC Oaks runner-up Neecie Marie, a Pennsylvania-bred daughter of Cross Traffic who finished a neck behind Eternal Hope, Del Mar Oaks (G1T) runner-up Be Your Best, and Root Cause and Alpha Bella, who were second and third, respectively, in the Virginia Oaks.
The Sands Point will be the second of 10 races Saturday, with post time slated for 1:10 p.m. ET.
Belmont at the Big A, Saturday, October 14, 2023, Race 2Entries: Sands Point S. (G2T)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Soviet Excess (KY) Dylan Davis 118 Todd A. Pletcher 4/1 2 2Quarrel (KY) Kendrick Carmouche 118 Robert Ribaudo 15/1 3 3Leave No Trace (KY) Jose Lezcano 118 Philip M. Serpe 15/1 4 4Be Your Best (IRE) Manuel Franco 118 Horacio De Paz 7/2 5 5Neecie Marie (PA) Abner Adorno 118 Robert E. Reid, Jr. 8/1 6 6Root Cause (KY) Trevor McCarthy 118 Chad C. Brown 10/1 7 7Eternal Hope (IRE) Jamie P. Spencer 120 Charles Appleby 5/2 8 8Highland Grace (KY) Junior Alvarado 118 Barclay Tagg 10/1 9 9Stephanie's Charm (KY) Jose Antonio Gomez 118 Jose M. Jimenez 30/1 10 10Alpha Bella (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 118 Todd A. Pletcher 8/1 11 11Essaouira (KY) Manuel Franco 118 H. Graham Motion 5/2 12 12Amanda's Folly (NY) Jose Lezcano 118 Linda Rice 6/1 13 13Ichiban (NY) Jose L. Ortiz 118 Linda Rice 2/1
