First, let's do the numbers.
Over the next eight months, commencing the afternoon of Feb. 3 with a cross-country cluster of Triple Crown preps, there will be 34 graded stakes on the books open to all 3-year-old Thoroughbreds at a mile or more on dirt, plus one on the all-weather. The total advertised purse money for those events comes in at around $27 million. Of those races, 11 offer purses of at least a million dollars.
The annual gold rush kicked off Jan. 20 in the $194,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, where Track Phantom led all the way to draw first blood. On Saturday, the cash starts to flow at 3:55 p.m. ET in the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Players will have time to let those results sink in before the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) is run at Santa Anita Park, at 5:23 p.m., followed by the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, at 5:45 p.m. Don't touch that dial, though, because at 5:42 p.m. the $800,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) comes right up at Oaklawn Park.
In case anyone asks, all of them carry points toward a starting berth in the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) May 4. The presence of freshly crowned Eclipse champion 2-year-old male Fierceness makes the Holy Bull must-see TV, and the dozen in the Southwest are led by Maycocks Bay, this year's point colt for Godolphin's elusive Derby quest. As usual, the Withers is being maligned before it is even run, but at a mile and one-eighth some attention must be paid.
Then there's the Lewis, named for a man who should need no introduction. Bob Lewis built a California beer distribution empire from the back of a station wagon when Santa Anita Park was an early client. As his fortune grew, Lewis dove head first into Thoroughbred ownership. Bob and Beverly Lewis raced champions Silver Charm, Serena's Song, Folklore, Orientate, and, in a partnership, Timber Country.
In a business that often leans toward chaos, Bob Lewis was racing's even keel. He was forthright, upright, and usually just plain right about whatever issue burned brightest on the day. His death at 81 in February 2006 left one of those holes in the fabric of the sport that never can be mended.
Clever Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation referred to this version of the Robert B. Lewis as a "Preakness prep." And it is, at least for the three entrants trained by Bob Baffert. Churchill Downs management again has forbidden horses trained by Baffert from darkening their Derby doorstep, perpetuating a vendetta that has achieved what once seemed impossible, by framing the trainer in a sympathetic light.
As a result, the Baffert colts Wine Me Up, Coach Prime, and morning-line favorite Nysos could finish 1-2-3 in the Lewis and casually sweep 36 of the 42 Derby starting points off the table, benefitting no one.
Still, they'll all leave the gate at the same time, and if he runs, Stronghold looks like he could break up the Baffert log jam. The son of Ghostzapper could not handle Nysos in the Nov. 19 Bob Hope Stakes (G3), but he came right back to give Wynstock a scare in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), and Wynstock is second choice on the Southwest morning line for Baffert. Phil D'Amato trains Stronghold for his breeders, Eric and Sharon Waller.
"We had him in Kentucky early, quite frankly to take advantage of the purses," D'Amato said.
Mission accomplished. In his first start, Stronghold finished second at Ellis Park to Awesome Road, who runs in the Southwest for Brad Cox. He then banked $69,000 in winning a $120,000 maiden race last October at Churchill Downs.
"I trained his dam," D'Amato said, referring to Spectator, a daughter of Jimmy Creed who won the 2017 Sorrento Stakes (G2) and finished second to Midnight Bisou in the 2018 Santa Anita Oaks (G1). "He's got a lot of his mom in him, though I think he'll favor Ghostzapper even more in getting a distance."
Stronghold was beaten a half-length in the mile and one-sixteenth Los Al Futurity.
"For your first test going going two turns on the longest stretch in North America, it's a pretty tall task," D'Amato said. "He fought every step of the way and passed the test, even though he was bumped in the stretch."
Forty-eight hours out, D'Amato was leaving his options open. The Sunland Park Derby (G2) Feb. 21 also was tempting, although there will be no hiding from Baffert runners anywhere serious money is on the table in a dirt race. D'Amato pushed back.
"I'd say we're holding our own pretty good lately," D'Amato said, and he's right. The stable's Desert Dawn handled the Baffert filly Midnight Memories in the La Canada Stakes (G3), and last weekend it was Newgrange topping Baffert runners Newgate and Mr Fisk in the San Pasqual Stakes (G2).
In fact, beating the dominant Baffert on his home ground has become a badge of honor for even the most accomplished West Coast trainers. John Sadler, last seen on the national stage at the side of Flightline , is running Scatify in the Lewis off a maiden win in December.
"He beat two Bafferts that day," Sadler said, barely hiding his pride. "That's never a bad thing."
Scatify is a chestnut son of Justify who cost West Point Thoroughbreds $120,000 as a 2-year-old.
"He needed a little time after the sale and got to me when we came back from Del Mar," Sadler said. "He trained well and showed some grit in that first race. I wish we hadn't drawn all the way on the outside Saturday, but we'll give it a go."
Sadler trains for the kind of clients who want to play at the top of the game when it comes to classic colts and fillies. But in Southern California, the top of the game has been so monopolized by the Baffert juggernaut that it can be disheartening.
"I look at it this way—at least you know where you stand," Sadler said. "There's no slipping into the Derby scraping up points here and there in easier spots. We're running with the front-line material here, and if you can't compete you don't belong."
Tim Yakteen knocked off the Baffert colts Urban Legend ($1.3 million 2-year-old) and Cornell ($675,000 yearling) right out of the box with Moonlit Sonata in a maiden race at Del Mar on Nov. 25. The son of Malibu Moon, a $75,000 yearling, shocked at 33-to-1 that day for Soma Racing Stables.
Yakteen scratched Moonlit Sonata from the Los Alamitos Futurity and ran instead in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Jan. 6. A so-so fifth after breaking from post 1 was not what the trainer had in mind.
"We were stepping up in class," Yakteen said, "but I'm not sure if being down on the inside for the first time might have been a bit discouraging for him. Sometimes a young horse is not as willing to hold their spot and step on the gas. Fortunately, he came out of it great and has trained forwardly, so we should know more about him after this race."
For the past two years, Yakteen had taken over a handful of Baffert horses otherwise banned by Churchill Downs so they could acquire points and run in the Derby. With Baffert's owners staying put this time, Yakteen's services were not required in the work-around. He was asked, tongue-in-cheek, if he took it personally.
"No," he said with a laugh. "Of course, I'm neutral when it comes to the issue. I do wish Bob's owners had the opportunity to campaign their horses just like any other owners.
"Anyway, I'd rather make the Derby this way, with our colt running well on Saturday," Yakteen added. "Who knows? Maybe there will be another surprise."
