Grade 1 winners Muth and Timberlake square off in search of a second top-level victory when an expected field of 10 3-year-olds compete in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park March 30.
Although on opposite coasts, the careers of Muth and Timberlake—the top two morning-line choices—have mirrored each other before and after their Nov. 3 meeting in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita Park, a race in which Muth finished second and Timberlake fourth.
Both colts followed their maiden victories with runner-up finishes amongst graded competition before grade 1 victories Oct. 7. For Muth, that victory came via a 3 3/4-length triumph in Santa Anita's American Pharoah Stakes (G1) while Timberlake conquered the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct Racetrack by 4 1/4 lengths. As 3-year-olds, both colts have landed grade 2 wins.
Muth has not raced since a 2 3/4-length triumph Jan. 6 in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. Zedan Racing Stable's son of Good Magic enters off a nearly three-month layoff to run the 1 1/8-mile distance of Saturday's test.
Timberlake had a successful start to his season Feb. 24 when he rolled down the Oaklawn stretch to win the Rebel Stakes (G2) by two lengths. The win made Siena Farm and WinStar Farm's Into Mischief colt a millionaire.
"I really like the timing of the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby," trainer Brad Cox said of Timberlake. "Obviously, he has the experience there now after winning the Rebel. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started this winter. That worked out well and it leads nicely to the Arkansas Derby."
Where the two differ is for which race the Arkansas Derby will act as a prep. The Arkansas Derby offers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points to the top five finishers on a scale of 100-50-25-15-10. Muth is ineligible to earn points as he is trained by the Churchill Downs Inc.-suspended Bob Baffert. Leaving his home state of California for the first time, this will serve as a solid test for the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course.
Timberlake appears safely in the Kentucky Derby with 66 points. It is unclear what the point minimum will be to enter the race, however, 50 points is widely considered a safe bet. Several competitors need a top showing to keep their Derby dreams alive.
Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III's Mystik Dan currently holds 21 Derby points. He looked like a prime contender Feb. 3 as he obliterated his competition by eight lengths in the Southwest Stakes (G3) on a muddy Oaklawn track, earning a career-high 110 Equibase Speed Figure—the highest in this field. Trainer Kenny McPeek will need a top-two finish to feel comfortable for a trip to Louisville, but 25 points for third should get him a reasonable shot at making the field on the bubble.
In Need of Kentucky Derby Points
- Just Steel's 15 points don't tell the story of how hard-trying the son of Justify is. Second in both the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes and the Southwest, the BC Stables colt disappointed with a seventh in the Rebel. Keith Asmussen will be aboard for the first time.
- Liberal Arts returned in the Southwest from a three-month layoff and closed to finish a respectable third, upping his point total to 19. The son of Arrogate won the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in October.
- Informed Patriot ran a disappointing fifth Feb. 18 in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) as the 8-5 second choice. Connections will hope a return to the track where he ran third in the Smarty Jones will add to his eight-point total.
The Arkansas Derby is race 12 with post time of 6:47 p.m. CT.
Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 30, 2024, Race 12Entries: Arkansas Derby (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Will Take It (KY) Francisco Arrieta 121 Eddie Milligan, Jr. 50/1 2 2Timberlake (KY) Flavien Prat 124 Brad H. Cox 9/5 3 3Dimatic (KY) Cristian A. Torres 121 Steven M. Asmussen 20/1 4 4Time for Truth (KY) Rafael Bejarano 121 Ron Moquett 20/1 5 5Liberal Arts (KY) Tyler Gaffalione 124 Robert Medina 15/1 6 6Informed Patriot (KY) Ricardo Santana, Jr. 121 Steven M. Asmussen 30/1 7 7Muth (KY) Juan J. Hernandez 124 Bob Baffert 8/5 8 8Just Steel (KY) Keith J. Asmussen 124 D. Wayne Lukas 15/1 9 9Mystik Dan (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 124 Kenneth G. McPeek 5/2 10 10Imperial Gun (KY) Emmanuel Esquivel 121 Steven M. Asmussen 30/1
