Was Mystik Dan's eight-length win in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes (G3) the product of a muddy track and/or rail-skimming trip, or is the colt a contender on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, no matter the circumstances?
He can answer that question March 30 at Oaklawn Park when he faces nine other 3-year-olds in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1).
"That's kind of the unknown, the (wet) track that day," jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. said. "But, I mean, he's a horse that we've liked all along. We've always thought a lot of him and he went ahead and proved it in the Southwest. The nice thing about him is he's so tactical. He's naturally fast, but now he's kind of learning his lessons. We got him to settle the other day. He sat midpack and kind of cruised along and finished it off well."
Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez sweep the @OaklawnRacing prep races! MYSTIK DAN wins the Southwest Stakes and earns 20 points on the Road to the #KyDerby! š¹ pic.twitter.com/hO0HHgz0NX
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) February 3, 2024
A son of two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents owned by Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III, Mystik Dan has 21 qualifying points for the May 4 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. A win or runner-up finish in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, or potentially even a third-place finish, would leave him poised to qualify.
The Arkansas Derby could award as many as 200 points to its top five eligible finishers (100-50-25-15-10, respectively) for the Run for the Roses.
"He's a fast horse—period," trainer Kenny McPeek said of his colt, noting a quick maiden win on a fast surface last fall at Churchill. "He did that on a dry track. That didn't have anything to do with the mud. Spaced him a lot. Skipped the Rebel (Stakes). He's had plenty of time in between. One bad thing is all of our eggs are in this basket to get points. But if he's good enough, he'll get there."
McPeek opted to train Mystik Dan up to the Arkansas Derby. Mystik Dan finished fifth in Oaklawn's first Kentucky Derby points race, the $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1.
A number of other talented 3-year-olds in the lineup also need Kentucky Derby qualifying points, among them Time for Truth (0 points) and Liberal Arts (19 points), both of whom will be middle prices on the oddsboard behind favorites Muth and Timberlake. Timberlake is safely in the Derby from a points perspective with 66, while Muth is ineligible owing to his trainer, Bob Baffert, being banned from competition at Churchill Downs Inc. tracks.
Late-running Liberal Arts finished third in the Southwest, his 3-year-old debut, but galloped out strongly. Trainer Robert Medina also skipped the Rebel Stakes (G2)—the Southwest was postponed one week because of winter weather—to point for the Arkansas Derby. The gray/roan son of Arrogate has six published workouts at his base, The Thoroughbred Center in Central Kentucky, since the Southwest and gets an additional sixteenth of a mile to work with Saturday.
"There's no excuse," Medina said. "Looking at it on paper, there doesn't look like an abundance of speed, but usually when it looks like that, there will be enough pace. He is what he is. I think he'll be five, six lengths behind them. He's going to have to make his run and whether that's going to be good enough, we're going to find out."
Post time for Saturday's Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 6:47 p.m. CT. A fast track is expected with sunny skies and warm temperatures forecast.
This press release has been edited for content and style by BloodHorse Staff.
