Barring an astounding performance from a leading Triple Crown candidate in this week's Kentucky Derby (G1) preps, the favorite for the May 4 classic at Churchill Downs appears established. It figures to be Fierceness, last year's champion 2-year-old male and a favorable-trip 13 1/2-length winner of the March 30 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park in his final race before the first leg of the Triple Crown.
But three 1 1/8-mile Derby preps across the country April 6 could go a long way toward determining some of his principal challengers or potential upsetters should the talented but inconsistent Fierceness not run to his potential on the first Saturday in May.
More so than Saturday's $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) later in the day, the $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland has the most potential to produce a Derby player. The 11-horse field of 3-year-olds includes four stakes winners—Dornoch , Epic Ride, Sierra Leone, and Encino—and Dornoch and Sierra Leone were victorious at the graded level.
Four other Blue Grass entries are graded placed: Seize the Grey , Be You, Just a Touch, and Lat Long.
Brad Cox, who trains Godolphin's Encino and Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing and Marc Detampel's Just a Touch, told publicist Jennie Rees of the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association that the Blue Grass is "a real grade 1. It's a very, very good race. It looks to be one of the better Derby preps run so far—or could be."
While not as proven as Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and 2023 Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Dornoch or Risen Star Stakes (G2) victor Sierra Leone, his two runners appear of high quality. Just a Touch ran second in the March 2 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack behind Deterministic, the morning-line favorite in the Wood Memorial, and Encino developed nicely through the winter while racing on a synthetic surface at Turfway Park. He won the March 2 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes there over a weight-spotting Epic Ride.
Twenty-three Blue Grass participants have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, making it among the most influential Derby preps. The last to do so, however, was Street Sense , who took the 2007 Run for the Roses after a runner-up finish in the Blue Grass over Keeneland's then-synthetic main track.
Blue Grass runners have threatened in the Derby in recent years, particularly its victors. In a few examples, 2018 Blue Grass winner Good Magic ran second to Triple Crown winner Justify in that year's Run for the Roses; 2021 winner Essential Quality ran third via the positive-test disqualification of Medina Spirit in the Derby before later taking the Belmont Stakes (G1); and 2022 Blue Grass winner Zandon ran third a month later in the Derby.
Chad Brown, the trainer of Sierra Leone and Blue Grass up-and-comers Top Conor and Good Money, conditioned Good Magic and Zandon, while Cox trained Essential Quality.
Pletcher Could Deepen HIS Derby Hand in Wood
The Wood Memorial is not far behind the Blue Grass in producing 20 Derby winners, though the last was more than 20 years ago when Funny Cide triumphed in the 2003 Kentucky Derby after a runner-up finish in the Wood.
Horses from it have impacted the Triple Crown since, particularly two years ago. Mo Donegal , the 2022 Wood Memorial winner trained by Todd Pletcher, ran fifth after breaking from the fence in the Derby before later taking the Belmont Stakes (G1). Between the Derby and the Belmont, the horse second to him in the Wood, the Chad Brown-trained Early Voting , took the Preakness Stakes (G1) after skipping the Derby.
Pletcher, a seven-time Wood winner, runs Protective and Tuscan Sky this year. Protective is a 30-1 longshot on the morning line, while Tuscan Sky is the 4-1 second favorite behind the Christophe Clement-trained Deterministic.
Spendthrift Farm's Tuscan Sky is 2-for-2, like Deterministic, but has yet to race in a stakes. He defeated eventual stakes winner Nash in an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in his first route Feb. 17.
With Nash racing clear on the lead over a short field on a wet track, Tuscan Sky was able to "beat him under those circumstances, which I thought was really encouraging," Pletcher said.
Since then, Tuscan Sky was well outpaced by stablemate Fierceness in breezes last month at Palm Beach Downs in South Florida, though Fierceness has encountered few members of his age group that can keep up in the mornings.
Among those starting for other trainers, further threats in the 13-horse Wood include Resilience, fourth in the Risen Star; the twice graded placed New York-bred stakes winner El Grande O; and Withers Stakes (G3) winner Uncle Heavy, who might have to race wide from the outside post.
Santa Anita Derby Could Be a Derby OR Preakness Prep
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, whose horses remained barred by Churchill Downs Inc. from racing at their tracks in action that followed Medina Spirit's positive test findings, entered a pair in the Santa Anita Derby: Imagination and Wynstock. Notably absent from his entries was the promising Maymun.
If one or both of his entries were to run well, they could be candidates for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, a race on the agenda for their stablemate, Zedan Racing Stables' Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Muth —absent successful legal action by his owner for a temporary injunction that would allow him to run in the Derby.
Imagination is a deserving favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, though his tendency to wait on horses in the stretch upon making the lead could infuse some drama.
In terms of the Derby picture, the Phil D'Amato-trained Stronghold appears to be the 3-year-old most probable to continue onward to Kentucky. He won the Sunland Park Derby (G3) last out and has 25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for owners/breeders Eric and Sharon Waller.
El Camino Real Derby runner-up Tapalo, a late nomination to the Triple Crown, and the maiden Mc Vay, third behind Imagination in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), could also challenge Saturday.
Like the other two preps, the Santa Anita Derby offers qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to its top five finishers, provided they are Triple Crown-nominated and their trainer is eligible to race at Churchill Downs. The Santa Anita Derby has produced 19 Kentucky Derby winners, with four of Baffert's six Derby winners making this California stop.
