In advance of the fall yearling sales, BloodHorse spoke with four bloodstock agents to ask them about their purchase plans, how they feel about the economic outlook, and which sires they are thinking about.
Name: Travis Durr
Affiliation: Owner/operator Travis Durr Training Center in St. Matthews, S.C., and partner in Legion Bloodstock
BloodHorse: What is your general buying plan heading into the fall yearling sales?
TD: We'll be buying mostly for end-users to race. I'll also do a little yearling-to-2-year-old pinhooking, but we'll be looking 95% for horses for us to race.
BH: What do you feel from this economic climate and the horse market?
TD: The one thing is it's an election year, but I don't think that will stop us from what we've got going on and our game plan.
BH: How much weight do you place on sires in your search?
TD: For us, we are just trying to find the individuals. The sire affects the final price, and there are some sires we maybe haven't had luck with or haven't performed yet, and it's hard to go to that well. Then again, there are some new sires that might not have had luck at the 2-year-old sales or in the early races that we still might find useful and be willing to try. One of the advantages of having a training center is I get to see how these horses develop. I might have some horses by sires that I think might be a little more late-developing, and we might stay on them longer than the market does. For us that's where the value can come in, buying progeny of a not-so-hot sire, but primarily we buy the individual.
The freshman sires are usually hot and they drive the market. You're gonna have to pay for them, not knowing how they're gonna turn out. And then those sires with four or five crops of runners, sometimes the market moves on from them, and we can look for value on them and maybe even get a little pedigree, too, and not be fighting everyone for that horse.
BH: Which sires are you most interested in seeing the progeny of this year?
TD: From what I've already seen, I really like the Beau Liam s. They have stood out to us from what we saw last year in November through the July and Saratoga sales. Obviously, the Yaupon s are nice, too. We were on Complexity last year and he has come out and done well. If we land on a sire as babies and then we land on them as yearlings again, and they are showing the athleticism we look for, it seems like those are the ones who work out.
Name: Nick Hines
Affiliation: Adviser with MyRaceHorse and also an independent bloodstock agent
BH: What is your general buying plan heading into the fall yearling sales?
NH: I've been pinhooking yearlings to 2-year-olds since 2011, and we've taken a nice little profit three of the last four years. We had good success this past season, so we're looking to do it again.
For MyRacehorse, we are looking for yearlings who can turn into Saturday horses and get us to the next level.
BH: What do you feel from this economic climate and the market?
NH: I think in general it's been a few years since we lost the bottom in the marketplace. There are some new players in the game, namely one. The names are out there, but I personally believe it to be a bit of (a) mirage at the top.
There's no middle market now. It's feast or famine. There's no real basement and there is a ceiling. As a buyer, I think there are opportunities. Good horses at the top sell for above market value, but horses in the middle market can be your value.
It's tricky because when buying yearlings, you're trying to get the page and the athlete. With MyRacehorse, we have to be a bit more critical on physical, and from a pedigree standpoint the page needs to be there, too.
BH: How much weight do you place on sires in your buying plan?
NH: From my perspective, it's probably 60/40 or even 70/30 mare over stallion. I look at mare productivity quite a bit. A great sire can move up an average mare, but how many great sires are there and what do the yearlings by them cost? I am not too critical of an unraced mare, but you need to do some homework.
In pinhooking, we're always on the lookout for the new faces in town, the freshmen stallions. As a pinhooker, you generally look at as many freshmen stallion horses as you can. You have a little bit of an advantage in that when you sell, the stallion isn't exposed yet.
But from a pinhook perspective, I think this is important. I always go in with a mindset of asking, "If we didn't sell, would we be OK to own the horse?" I think if you go in with the attitude that a horse has to sell as a pinhook, you will end up losing in the end.
BH: Which sires are you most interested in seeing the progeny of this year?
NH: Tiz the Law clearly had the talent and he came from a barn in Barclay Tagg's that runs a very straightforward program. I would have full confidence in Tiz the Law as a second-crop stallion, which normally we wouldn't look at as a pinhook candidate.
This is a game of instant gratification. Look at Audible , his horses are just starting to come around, and the market was ready to move on from him.
In MyRacehorse, we are looking at every horse out there. We bought a Yaupon at the Saratoga sale that we are excited about. I think Yaupon is one new sire in particular that will have a positive strike rate to begin with.
But generally speaking for MyRacehorse, we're going to go after the proven product as opposed to the surprise in the box. Established sires such as Twirling Candy , Uncle Mo, maybe now an Omaha Beach , are sires that I want to look for. At the top end, I see Justify and Not This Time as locks. With Justify it may be a question of how deep is your pocketbook? I think Quality Road still has a big chance of trending upward again. The Twirling Candies are holding steady. Good Magic is another one I like if you can afford them.
On the first-crop yearlings, Maxfield is intriguing to me. I loved him as a racehorse. I don't know how much instant gratification you will get with him being by Street Sense , but I loved what he did on the racetrack. He seems to be the type of horse that they allowed his natural talent to do it on the racetrack.
Another new stallion I think is interesting is Independence Hall . He could be a sleeper.
Name: Jamie Hill
Affiliation: Co-owner of McMahon & Hill Bloodstock, and co-managing partner Bourbon Lane Stable racing partnership
BH: What is your general buying plan heading into the fall yearling sales?
JH: Our plan for Bourbon Lane is to add a filly. We already bought two colts, and for our LLC partnerships, we like to buy three horses to a group. We feel it gives our partners a better chance to have a runner than just one horse.
We are also looking specifically for New York-breds. We have several clients that race in New York.
And then we will look to fill out orders for individual clients to race. If the right call comes in and one of our clients says let's add a horse, we'll have a nice list ready for them.
We pinhook yearlings to 2-year-olds both with Hidden Brook and also with Randy Miles and Bo Hunt.
BH: What do you feel from this economic climate and the horse market?
JH: I've got to say I was surprised by the strength of both Saratoga sales. I was a little concerned with the stock market dropping 1,000 points the day before the sale. I guess at that level, those guys aren't worried about a market correction. But to set a record at $82 million in sales was surprising to me. I have a feeling Keeneland, at least the first few books, will be a continuation of that. I think the middle market is a tough sled right now.
BH: How much weight do you place on sires in your buying plan?
JH: My father (Dr. Jim Hill) was pretty good at picking out horses, and he always said the mare is 70% of the deal. But to that end, the breeding game has changed. A small group of sires gets all the mares now. They're the top, proven successes or the first-year guys until they're proven failures.
I don't think people take chances with their good breeding stock anymore. That's why you see so many by the top sires. Any farm where the sire is successful, they're breeding 200 mares to them now.
BH: What sires are you most interested in seeing the progeny of this year?
JH: There's a handful of stallions out there right now who don't have many 2-year-old winners, and people are already asking, is he gonna make it? Those stallions can be value. If they're out of the right mare and have a good physical, we will buy those yearlings.
In this current crop, McKinzie has been the horse for me. We have a 2-year-old by him now. He did get hurt in training leading up to his first start, but he was just different than the other horses. We went out and bought two more McKinzies. Between weanlings, yearlings, and 2-year-olds, I've seen a bunch by him who caught my eye. He is seventh on the freshman sire list right now, but he's not one who struck me as coming out and tearing up the world early. I think they are coming.
Name: Bob Feld
Affiliation: Founder Bob Feld Bloodstock and partner in Feld Family Finds and Feld Family Racing with son Sean Feld
BH: What is your general buying plan heading into the fall yearling sales?
BF: We'll be looking to buy for end-users and ourselves. We don't pinhook yearlings to 2-year-olds anymore but we do weanling to yearling.
BH: What do you feel from this economic climate and the horse market?
BF: I think the market is strong in the right areas, such as Keeneland, while the regional sales seem to be off. I know California is struggling. What did they average at their most recent sale, $6,000? But I find the market at the higher-end sales is still very strong.
BH: How much weight do you place on sires in your buying plan?
BF: I go into it without any pre-judging. We buy physicals, so we never know who the sire will be. We've done well buying good physicals at fair prices or even under market, so we are sticking with that program. We really are not sire-oriented at all. My son and I look at every horse at every auction. We will look at 2,000 horses each at Keeneland.
I always say, "Be like a Boy Scout, always prepared." You never know if you are gonna bump into someone who says, "I want a Derby horse, my budget is 300k." I always want to be ready if something like that happens.
When I look at the list of great horses we have bought and been involved in, all the sires were viewed as underachievers. That's how we bought (classic-placed, grade 1 winner) Hot Rod Charlie for $17,000. No one was interested in an Oxbow . The sire just tells you how much you're going to have to pay.
BH: You said you are not sire-oriented, but are there any new sires that have caught your and Sean's attention?
BF: It is fun to look at your short list and see which ones have the most on your list. I haven't seen enough numbers yet, but we did land on a few Beau Liams and Yaupons. Those two kind of caught our eyes.
