The Road to the Kentucky Derby kicks into high gear as the calendar turns to March, and Gulfstream Park will be a focal point on a nationwide day of prep races March 1 as it hosts the 79th Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
The $415,000 stakes held at 1 1/16 miles on dirt distributes Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers. Fourteen horses have come out of this race to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown, most recently Mage in 2023, who finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth and then pulled a 15-1 upset under the twin spires.
This year's renewal drew a solid field headlined by recent Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Burnham Square and Sovereignty, who won the Street Sense Stakes (G3) last fall and is making his first start at age 3. The race will be televised live on CNBC and FanDuel TV and streamed on Peacock, with a scheduled post time of 5:42 p.m. ET.
Read on for information about each contender and some betting insights:
1. Gate to Wire
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Donegal Racing
Career record: 5 starts—2 wins—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $192,790
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Munnings —Sansibar Jewel, by Street Cry
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Closer
Analysis: After Gate to Wire had modest success on turf and all-weather tracks through four starts, Todd Pletcher decided to try him on dirt in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes Feb. 1 at Gulfstream. The Munnings colt responded with a powerful five-length win at 13-1 odds, which is the sort of "wake-up" effort that can motivate connections to try even tougher races, such as this Kentucky Derby qualifying race. The Fountain of Youth will be Gate to Wire's first start in a two-turn race, and if he can handle the extra distance—and there's no reason based on his pedigree that he can't—he's got a chance to overshadow several more prominent contenders and post the upset. Dylan Davis rode Gate to Wire for the first time in the Swale and retains the mount Saturday.
2. Sovereignty
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: Godolphin
Career record: 3 starts—1 win—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $143,280
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Crowned, by Bernardini
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Sovereignty makes his eagerly anticipated return to the track in the Fountain of Youth and projects to be among the post-time favorites based on his final race at age 2 way back on Oct. 27. He competed in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes that day at Churchill Downs as a maiden, having finished fourth and second in his two prior starts, and was a revelation under the Twin Spires, rallying from off the pace and romping to a five-length victory. Since then, the Godolphin homebred son of top sire Into Mischief has been patiently managed by trainer Bill Mott in preparation for his 3-year-old debut, and he's back on schedule after missing several training days due to a fever. There is always an element of uncertainty when a young, lightly raced horse returns after several months away as to whether they can re-start the maturation process, but if Sovereignty is ready to "fire off the bench," as racetrackers say, he'll be tough to handle in the Fountain of Youth.
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Career record: 4 starts—2 wins—1 second—1 third
Career earnings: $202,330
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 20
Pedigree: Liam's Map —Linda, by Scat Daddy
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: This gelding is among the top Kentucky Derby prospects heading into the Fountain of Youth after posting an impressive 1 3/4-length win in the Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 1 at Gulfstream. Burnham Square had a slow start in that 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby prep and had to settle farther back off of the pace than trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey Edgard Zayas had planned, trailing the seven-horse field early on before starting to pick off horses on the backstretch. He swept into contention through the far turn in the Holy Bull, and showed plenty of stamina in the final yards to win going away. Burnham Square has trained very well since that breakout stakes win, according to Wilkes, and a repeat or improvement of his Holy Bull effort Saturday will place him right into contention for another Kentucky Derby prep victory at Gulfstream. Look for him to race closer to the pace provided he gets off to a better start than he did last month.
4. McKellen
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Jose D'Angelo
Owner: Leon King Stable
Career record: 3 starts—1 win—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $41,700
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 86
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: McKinzie —Don't Blame Me, by Blame
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: This colt from the first crop of young stallion McKinzie enters off of a sixth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 4 at Gulfstream. He stalked the early leaders in that one-turn, one-mile race, but soon weakened and finished ahead of only one other entrant. Prior to the Mucho Macho Man, McKellen won a one-mile race in his Gulfstream debut last October and finished second at the same distance in November at Churchill Downs to recent Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Disco Time. He'll look to get back on track after a dud of an effort in the Mucho Macho Man, and that race has not turned out to be very productive among 3-year-old stakes, as winner Guns Loaded finished last in the Holy Bull Stakes in his next start and runner-up Treaty of Rome finished ninth of 10 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his subsequent outing. McKellen was scratched from a 1 1/8-mile allowance optional claiming race Feb. 27 at Gulfstream Park and seems likely for the Fountain of Youth.
5. Solid Left
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Owners: Susan Hill and Jim Hill
Career record: 2 starts—1 win—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $42,400
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 81
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: West Coast—Solid Appeal, by Successful Appeal
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
(Editor's Note: Likely to scratch. He is set to compete Thursday in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park.)
6. River Thames
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owners: WinStar Farm and CHC
Career record: 2 starts—2 wins—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $85,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Maclean's Music —Proportionality, by Discreet Cat
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Even though Burnham Square, Sovereignty, Gate to Wire, and Keep It Easy all come into the Fountain of Youth Stakes off of stakes wins, there's a chance that this undefeated colt could go off as the post-time favorite. He's not been tested in two starts so far, both coming on Gulfstream's main track, first taking a six-furlong sprint Jan. 11 by 4 3/4 lengths and then winning a one-turn, one-mile race on the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes undercard by a widening 6 1/2 lengths. River Thames was forwardly placed in both races by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and took over at will when asked, and it's a good bet that Velazquez will attempt the same strategy as his colt extends to two turns Saturday in a race where most of the main win threats are come-from-behind runners. River Thames has a pedigree more suited to running in sprints and one-mile races that could hinder him in the coming months if he stays on the Triple Crown trail, but 1 1/16 miles should be well within his scope. He's a main win threat for six-time Fountain of Youth Stakes-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.
7. Neoequos
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Owners: Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, and Stefania Farms
Career record: 5 starts—2 wins—2 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $137,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Neolithic —Bold Birdie, by Birdstone
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: In a Fountain of Youth Stakes field lacking much speed, this sprinter could be the early leader as he tries a two-turn race for the first time in career start number six. Neoequos was bumped and lost his jockey in his career debut, but since then has won twice and finished second twice, all of his starts coming on Gulfstream's dirt main track. His two runner-up finishes came to fellow Florida-bred Rated By Merit in stakes races last fall, and that unbeaten colt had generated healthy Kentucky Derby buzz before he was sidelined due to bone bruising. In his only start this year, Neoequos took the early lead in a six-furlong sprint Jan. 23 and extended it to the finish line, scoring by 3 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. Gulfstream's leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will take the reins aboard Neoequos for the first time in the Fountain of Youth. Look for Ortiz to be aggressive early and try to pull off a gate-to-wire upset if no other horse tries to challenge him.
8. Keep It Easy
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owners: St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Thoroughbreds
Career record: 4 starts—2 wins—0 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $207,671
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Hard Spun —Boxwood, by English Channel
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: This colt could be overlooked somewhat in the pari-mutuel betting pools for the Fountain of Youth as he makes his 3-year-old debut. He was very impressive when last seen Nov. 30 at Churchill Downs in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes, stalking a pair of longshot leaders patiently through the far turn and then powering clear of the field to win by 5 1/4 lengths. Prior to that race, Keep It Easy won one of three starts during last summer and had an excuse in his prior stakes race where he stumbled badly at the start. He'll be stretching out around two turns and trying 1 1/16 miles for the first time Saturday after a layoff of three months, but like Gate to Wire on the opposite end of the Fountain of Youth starting gate, this colt has the bloodlines to handle running longer. His workouts since shipping to South Florida from Kentucky have been strong. An intriguing upset candidate.
