Brad Cox has trained many good fillies, but none then greater than two-time champion Monomoy Girl. The tough-as-nails chestnut put Cox on the map with her gallant victory in the 2018 Kentucky Oaks (G1) and two Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) titles. Now, only four years after Monomoy Girl's exit, Cox may have found the brilliant mare's heir apparent in Good Cheer.
A perfect 5-for-5 lifetime, Good Cheer puts her undefeated record on the line in the March 22 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. The $400,000, 1 1/16-mile contest for 3-year-old fillies awards a massive 100 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. Kentucky Oaks (G1) points for second through fifth-place finishers are offered on a 50-25-15-10 scale.
Godolphin homebred Good Cheer, a monster of a filly, has shown every inclination that she can ascend to Monomoy Girl-level stardom. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro has conquered every obstacle she's come across with relative ease, boasting an average winning margin of 7 3/4 lengths.
Following her 6 1/4-length season-opening romp in last month's Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), Good Cheer currently sports 45 points on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard behind Quietside, a filly she defeated in the 2024 Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, Drexel Hill, La Cara, and Fondly.
"I am a figures guy and I hear that, but with her, that doesn't concern me," Cox said of the observation that Good Cheer's speed figures have not improved significantly from 2 to 3. "She's been dominant. It's not like anyone's come close to her. When you talk about an eye test, when she's been asked to quicken, she's really separated herself. She's beat who we've asked her to run against and she's done it the right way.
"She's just different. The word I always use is class. She's very intelligent. It's hard to explain if you're not around horses all the time, but she's just different, mentally."
Luis Saez, Good Cheer's faithful companion for her last four starts, will ride the morning-line favorite from post 7.
A win on Saturday would give Cox his fourth winner in Fair Ground's signature Oaks prep for fillies. The Cox-trained Tarifa, also bred and owned by Godolphin, captured last year's running. He also landed back-to-back editions of the race with Bonny South and Travel Column in 2020-21.
With the exception of Gowells Delight and Bless the Broken, the distant 2-3 finishers in the Rachel Alexandra, Good Cheer takes on a gaggle of fresh faces in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
Greenwell Thoroughbreds' Quickick could be a worthy contender. The daughter of McKinzie had an excellent juvenile campaign for trainer Thomas Amoss, breaking her maiden at Saratoga Race Course before a runner-up effort in Keeneland's Alcibiades Stakes (G1) and a third-place showing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Given a freshening after the Breeders' Cup, Quickick may have been a tad short in her 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 23 Honeybee Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, finishing a flat fifth.
With one start under her belt and a new rider in Tyler Gaffalione, it'll be interesting to see if the Quickick of 2024 resurfaces Saturday.
Oaklawn shipper Jenkin, from the Lindsay Shultz barn, is another hoping to rebound from a poor showing in the Honeybee. The Shortleaf Stable homebred had rolled to two consecutive victories in Arkansas, including a game score in the Year's End Stakes.
Her Laugh, a frontrunning winner of Fair Ground's Untapable Stakes in December, is exiting a good second-place finish to La Cara in the Suncoast Stakes Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs. The Practical Joke filly had a nightmarish start in the Suncoast, losing all chance when throwing her head at the bell and missing the break. Despite losing valuable ground early, Her Laugh was game throughout, rallying tenaciously to pass every horse except the winner.
Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the call on Her Laugh for trainer Whit Beckman and owner/breeder Grantley Acres.
Recent impressive Fair Grounds debut scorer Ahavah, a half sister to grade 1-winning sprinter Vahva, makes the giant leap to black-type company in her second career start for trainer Cherie DeVaux.
"If (Ahavah) didn't have the constitution to do it physically and mentally, we wouldn't try it," DeVaux said. "But she seems to have that going for her. It's a tough ask to go two turns against that level, but she's running out of her own stall. I don't have to change anything with her. This will be a good guide on what to do with her going forward in her career."
Insights From Thoro-Graph
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Ahavah ran a good one (7 1/2) in her debut, and if she goes forward she's a major contender here. But one-figure horses are notoriously unpredictable, and this one is stretching out off one six-furlong race. Nothing she does Saturday would surprise us, good or bad.
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Her Laugh is another that ran well sprinting (7) in her debut, but in Thoro-Graph terms, she's been going backward since, despite a win and a second in stakes.
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Good Cheer jumped to a big one (5) in her second start and has stayed at exactly that level in her three starts since. Another 5 might be good enough to win this, but if she's going to live up to the hype in Louisville she needs to show it by moving forward right now.
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Secret Faith is cross-entered in a state-bred stakes, but this would definitely be the right choice, since the other race came up equally tough figure-wise, with a lot less upside. Amazingly, this Louisiana-bred goes in as slightly the fastest filly in the race, having run 4 1/4 three times. Can she go long? No idea, but this is the right place to find out.
Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Sheets for the Fair Grounds Oaks are accessible here. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.
Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, Saturday, March 22, 2025, Race 11Entries: Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Girl Math (KY) Flavien Prat 122 Rodolphe Brisset 12/1 2 2Gowells Delight (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 122 Kenneth G. McPeek 8/1 3 3Ahavah (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 122 Cherie DeVaux 8/1 4 4Jenkin (KY) Florent Geroux 122 Lindsay Schultz 20/1 5 5Her Laugh (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 122 D. Whitworth Beckman 12/1 6 6Bless the Broken (KY) Axel Concepcion 122 William Walden 15/1 7 7Good Cheer (KY) Luis Saez 122 Brad H. Cox 4/5 8 8Secret Faith (LA) Jareth Loveberry 122 Jayde J. Gelner 6/1 9 9Quickick (KY) Tyler Gaffalione 122 Thomas M. Amoss 10/1
