Journalism can write his way into horse racing history should he prove victorious at Churchill Downs in the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1), becoming one of 151 winners of the historic race. But to do so, he might need to splash his way to victory against 18 other 3-year-old Thoroughbreds.
More than a half-inch of precipitation is forecast Saturday in Louisville, Ky., per a midday May 2 forecast from the National Weather Service, which could lead to a wet track and a damp Derby day crowd. Last year, more than 156,000 fans were in attendance.
The last sloppy track in the Kentucky Derby came in 2019 when Country House won the Derby via the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference.
The Churchill Downs dirt track dries quickly, however, so a break in precipitation for a matter of hours before the 6:57 p.m. ET race could allow for the surface to be rated fast or good.
Journalism, like most of the other favorites in the 1 1/4-mile classic, has never raced on anything but a dry track. Since his debut third in a sprint, he is unbeaten in four longer races around two turns and is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line to win the Derby, the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Irrespective of track condition, a win is not expected to come easily.
Sovereignty is a strong-finishing closer who romped in his only start over the Churchill Downs surface last fall in the Street Sense Stakes (G3); Sandman, a flashy gray and/or roan Tapit colt purchased for $1.2 million before beginning his racing career, is even more valuable today after winning the Arkansas Derby (G1); and Luxor Cafe, a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah , is riding a four-race win streak.
Along with Admire Daytona, who qualified for the Derby via a victory in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, Luxor Cafe is one of two Japanese-trained runners. Though Japanese horses are winless in eight starts in the Derby, their top hope in the race last year, Forever Young, came within two noses of winning the race when third in a blanket finish behind Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.
Beyond these, Journalism has to outrun the speedy Citizen Bull, the reigning 2-year-old champion male and trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the most successful trainer in Triple Crown history with 17 wins between the Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1), and Belmont Stakes (G1). Baffert trained American Pharoah and Justify in 2018 to sweep all three races.
Baffert's other runner, Rodriguez, was scratched, as was the Todd Pletcher-trained Grande, both due to minor physical setbacks. Horses competing in the Derby are under close veterinary scrutiny.
With these scratches, also-eligible Baeza drew into the field.
Banned for more than three years by Churchill Downs after his horse Medina Spirit tested positive for a medication infraction in the 2021 Derby, Baffert finally makes his Derby return. A victory in Saturday's Run for the Roses would give him a seventh Derby win, moving him out of a tie with "Plain Ben" Jones as the winningest trainer in Derby history.
But it is not Baffert, nor the Japanese, that have rival trainers most worried. It is Journalism, who has rattled off four consecutive route victories in a maiden race, the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), the San Felipe Stakes (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1). The latter victory came over Baeza and Citizen Bull, who finished second and fourth, respectively.
Expressing his high opinion of Journalism, Sandman's Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse said, "If you said to me, 'Mark, you get to pick one horse and you don't have to run against him,' it would be Journalism."
Since arriving from California last week, Journalism has been unrattled by his new surroundings or by the buzz of Derby week backstretch activity. He and the other 3-year-olds in Saturday's field must now deal with the frenzied walkover Saturday, not to mention the scrum of racing in the Derby itself.
Journalism found himself in trouble in the Santa Anita Derby, stuck behind a tiring leader and boxed in by rival horses, before extricating himself and rallying past the well-bred Baeza for a three-quarter-length victory.
Speaking of the trouble that could await him and other horses attempting to rally in the Derby, Journalism's trainer, Michael McCarthy, reflected, "Who knows how many times it could happen Saturday? (Nearly) 20 horses, a lot going on.
"You know, our problem in California is the smaller field size compared to some of these other preps. But I thought that was a very good experience for him, all things considered."
His Italian-born jockey, Umberto Rispoli, who now calls California home, returns in the irons aboard Journalism in post 8. Rispoli has twice ridden in the Derby, finishing 14th on Brooklyn Strong in 2021 and ninth aboard Endlessly last year.
The mount on the latter came for McCarthy, representing his trainer's lone starter. McCarthy, who won the 2021 Preakness Stakes with Rombauer , had been hesitant to run Endlessly in the Derby, believing him better suited to turf racing, but deferred to wishes of the colt's ownership, Amerman Racing, to participate.
In contrast, McCarthy has reserved confidence in his horse this year—or at least as much confidence as one can reasonably expect in the Derby, which, due to its depth and quality, is widely regarded as the most difficult race in North America to win.
Journalism races for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, breeder Don Alberto Stable, Bob LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, and the Coolmore-affiliated Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith. Journalism will eventually stand as a stallion at Coolmore's Ashford Stud.
Casse is also pursuing his first Derby win, having won the 2019 Preakness with War of Will and that year's Belmont Stakes with Sir Winston .
After some starts with difficult trips that resulted in defeats this year in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Rebel Stakes (G2), Casse said Sandman "got a lot of good luck in the Arkansas Derby. You know, they set a very fast pace and he came running and was impressive.
"And, and since then, he's just done better and better. He's grown. He's 17 hands tall now. He's a big boy and he's happy."
Sandman, who races for D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables, could further give his legendary sire, Tapit, whose progeny have won four runnings of the Belmont, a first win in the Run for the Roses.
Godolphin's Sovereignty, just to his outside, also will be rallying from far back. A closing second in the Florida Derby (G1) after a season-opening win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), he showed an affinity for the Churchill Downs surface in winning the Street Sense Stakes last fall in his lone appearance over the track. Two of those that chased him in that race were Tiztastic, the eventual Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, and Sandman.
"So those horses have obviously made some improvements since then, but I believe we have too," said Sovereignty's trainer, Bill Mott.
Presumably, they will have Citizen Bull and another Godolphin-owned horse, the Brendan Walsh-trained East Avenue, to catch.
The Kentucky Derby is one of the few major races worldwide that has not yet been won by Godolphin, the global owning and breeding powerhouse founded by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. The Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality came close in 2021 with a third after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes five weeks after the Derby.
The Derby is not filled strictly with blue-blooded runners trained by Hall of Famers. Coal Battle has come from humble beginnings, debuting last year with a win at Evangeline Downs for Louisiana trainer Lonnie Briley, and Louisiana Derby runner-up Chunk of Gold was a bargain $2,500 yearling purchase who competes for Turfway Park-based trainer Ethan West.
Coal Battle, Neoequos, American Promise, and Luxor Cafe have won over wet dirt tracks.
"Well, you know, today the way horses are bred, I think anybody can come up with a runner," Briley said of Coal Battle, a son of Coal Front owned by Norman Stables.
NBC will televise the Derby, Saturday's 12th race, along with numerous supporting stakes races on the program. An audience of about 20 million is expected to watch the Derby.
Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 3, 2025, Race 12Entries: Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Citizen Bull (KY) Martin Garcia 126 Bob Baffert 20/1 2 2Neoequos (FL) Flavien Prat 126 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. 30/1 3 3Final Gambit (KY) Luan Machado 126 Brad H. Cox 30/1 4 4Rodriguez (KY) Mike E. Smith 126 Bob Baffert 12/1 5 5American Promise (KY) Nik Juarez 126 D. Wayne Lukas 30/1 6 6Admire Daytona (JPN) Christophe Lemaire 126 Yukihiro Kato 30/1 7 7Luxor Cafe (KY) Joao Moreira 126 Noriyuki Hori 15/1 8 8Journalism (KY) Umberto Rispoli 126 Michael W. McCarthy 3/1 9 9Burnham Square (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 126 Ian R. Wilkes 12/1 10 10Grande (KY) John R. Velazquez 126 Todd A. Pletcher 20/1 11 11Flying Mohawk (KY) Joseph D. Ramos 126 D. Whitworth Beckman 30/1 12 12East Avenue (KY) Manuel Franco 126 Brendan P. Walsh 20/1 13 13Publisher (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 126 Steven M. Asmussen 30/1 14 14Tiztastic (KY) Joel Rosario 126 Steven M. Asmussen 20/1 15 15Render Judgment (KY) Julien R. Leparoux 126 Kenneth G. McPeek 30/1 16 16Coal Battle (KY) Juan P. Vargas 126 Lonnie Briley 30/1 17 17Sandman (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 126 Mark E. Casse 6/1 18 18Sovereignty (KY) Junior Alvarado 126 William I. Mott 5/1 19 19Chunk of Gold (KY) Jareth Loveberry 126 Ethan W. West 30/1 20 20Owen Almighty (KY) Javier Castellano 126 Brian A. Lynch 30/1 21 21Baeza (KY) Flavien Prat 126 John A. Shirreffs 12/1
