Report: KY Tracks Can Expect Increased Wet Weather

As Sovereignty splashed to victory in this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) in Louisville, Ky., it marked the seventh time in the past 17 editions of the Churchill Downs classic that it's been contested on either a sloppy or wet-fast track. In April, Keeneland had to push back its opening weekend from Friday and Saturday, April 4 and 5 to Monday and Tuesday, April 7 and 8 after heavy rains brought flooding to the area. Based on a United States Environmental Protection Agency report posted to its website in January, Kentucky tracks would be wise to continue to be prepare for increased wet weather. That report predicts climate change will bring increased extreme precipitation events and flooding in Kentucky, which can affect communities and economies across the state. Unfortunately, that prediction would play out this spring when multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms impacted the area April 1-6. Flooding led to three fatalities in Central Kentucky and seven fatalities across the state. The report noted that since tracking began in 1980, all four of the billion-dollar flooding disasters to affect Kentucky occurred in 2010 or later. This spring's flooding figures to be a fifth in that category. The report, titled "Climate Change Connections: Kentucky (Thoroughbred Horses)," was part of a series that highlighted climate change connections to culturally, ecologically, or economically important features of each state and territory. In this case, it looked at the impact of climate change on racing and raising Thoroughbreds. The report noted that racing can expect a higher percentage of off-tracks in Kentucky as the trend is expected to continue. It also noted added concerns for horse farms. "Flooding also presents challenges for horses and other livestock," the report said. "During flooding, horses can become injured or stranded. Flooding can also create conditions, such as standing water, that can attract pests, such as mosquitos, which can lay eggs and spread diseases, including eastern and western equine encephalomyelitis and West Nile virus that can be harmful to humans and horses. "In July 2023, nearly 11 inches of rain over a two-day period in Kentucky broke some local rainfall records and resulted in flash flooding that destroyed homes and displaced residents. The aftermath of the storm also created a myriad of issues for farms and horse operations. Grass fields were flooded and animals did not have anything to graze on, and fences were washed away, making it hard to keep animals contained." The report's analysis seems to be in line with Kentucky Derby weather patterns. The National Weather Service lists the longest stretch of wet Derby days (based on the full 24 hours) in the race's 151-year history as 2007-13 with precipitation surpassing a half-inch in four of those years. Rainfall on Derby day has surpassed an inch of rain just six times overall but half of those occasions have occurred since 2010, including the 3.15 inches that fell in 2018—a Derby day record. This year saw 0.37 inches of rain. While fans had to deal with wet weather, on the track the Churchill crew delivered a surface that was fair to competitors. The bigger concern this spring were the multiple rounds of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and tornadoes that impacted Kentucky April 1-6. That brought flash flooding and areal flooding, including historic and near-record river flooding along many river basins; as well as mudslides and landslides. Three people died in Central Kentucky with seven flood fatalities across the state.