The last few editions of the Preakness Stakes (G1) have not been kind to Kentucky Derby (G1) winners and runners, but because this recent trend goes against a two-decade stretch of success for such runners, it's unclear if something has changed or this is just an oddity.
No Derby starter has won the Preakness since 2019 and no Derby winner has captured the Baltimore classic since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018. The odd thing about this recent run of years is that War of Will 's 2019 Preakness victory capped a 19-year stretch in which 16 Derby starters captured the Preakness, including eight Derby winners.
That trend then hit the wall. In a rescheduled 2020 classic because of COVID-19, filly Swiss Skydiver edged Derby winner Authentic in an October edition of the Preakness. The two Preakness editions that followed were won by horses who skipped the Preakness: 2021 winner Rombauer , who entered off a third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1, and Early Voting , who started off a runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2).
In 2023 National Treasure earned Preakness glory off a fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). That would end a three-year run of Preakness winners who entered the 1 3/16-mile classic off of major Kentucky Derby prep races where they didn't win but finished in the top four.
Last year trainer D. Wayne Lukas captured the Preakness with Seize the Grey off of two weeks' rest. But that race 14 days earlier wasn't the Derby, but rather the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) on the Derby undercard.
As for Derby winners in this recent stretch? We already know that Sovereignty will not contest this year's edition. Mystik Dan finished second last year, and 2023 winner Mage finished third. Rich Strike did not race in the Preakness after his 2022 Derby win, nor did Mandaloun , who would be promoted to first well after the 2021 Derby. Medina Spirit, who at the time of the Preakness was still the Derby winner, finished third in Baltimore.
Authentic, the 2020 Derby winner, ran a close second to Swiss Skydiver in the rescheduled classic season. That effort followed the connections of Country House not opting to move forward to the 2019 Preakness after his upset Derby win.
This year's Preakness field features a fairly even mix of runners from those various categories. Favorite Journalism finished second in the Derby and is joined by fellow Derby runners American Promise, 16th in the Derby, and Sandman, seventh.
Goal Oriented makes his stakes debut after winning an allowance optional claiming race on the Derby card.
Clever Again and Pay Billy punched their Preakness tickets with stakes wins in races that awarded berths in the classic. Clever Again enjoyed a clear lead throughout the March 30 Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park and drew off to a four-length score while Pay Billy nailed down the local bid with a clear win in the Federico Tesio Stakes April 19 at Laurel Park.
In a recently familiar path to the Preakness winner's circle, River Thames will make his first start since a third-place finish in one of the major Derby preps, the Blue Grass Stakes April 8 at Keeneland. Heart of Honor also enters off of one of the major Derby preps but has the added wrinkle of making his United States debut as that most recent start was a close second in the UAE Derby (G2) April 5 at Meydan Racecourse.
Gosger will break from the outside post in his first start since a two-length victory in the Lexington Stakes (G3) April 12 at Keeneland.
