Limited Liability to Try to Fend Off Gold Cup Invaders

With 10 career graded stakes placings, including in his last three starts, 2-1 morning-line favorite Limited Liability will try to get over the hump and into the winner's circle in the $250,000 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes (G2T) June 6 at Saratoga Race Course. The Gold Cup is a return engagement for the 6-year-old Kitten's Joy gelding. The Stuart Janney III homebred finished a close third in last year's edition of the two-mile test. Two races after that effort, Limited Liability delivered a dominant 8 1/4-length win in the Nashville Gold Cup Stakes over The Grey Wizard (IRE)—who won last year's Belmont Gold Cup. He then ended 2024 with a second in the Red Smith Stakes (G2T). He opened 2025 a tough-luck third in the William L. McKnight Stakes (G3T) at Gulfstream Park in which he took the lead in early stretch but was overcome late. The near-misses continued in the Elkhorn Stakes (G2T), taking the lead with a half-mile to go, but not having enough to hold off a rival. "He will run as far as you want him to run," trainer Shug McGaughey said. "He ran good there at Kentucky Downs (in the Nashville Gold Cup). All his races of late have been good. His race in Florida, he got unlucky down there and just got beat. Then he got unlucky and just got beat at Keeneland. I am expecting him to run well." The mystery of Friday's race comes in the form of Flatten the Curve (FR), a 6-year-old Zarak (FR) gelding who has 38 races to his name, just not any in the United States. He enters on a four-race winning streak including a narrow victory in the about two-mile Oleander Rennen (G2) at Germany's Rennbahn Hoppegarten. Now he must adjust to a different course than what's been used to in Europe. "I don't think he will have any problem with the left-handed smaller course at Saratoga or if the ground is soft from rain," said trainer Henk Grewe. "He won for us at Nantes, where it was left-handed and a small track with soft ground. We learned a lot that has helped us from our trips with Sisfahan and Donjah." A win Saturday would make Flatten the Curve the third German-trained runner to win the race since 2017. The Kentucky-bred Anglophile has had an almost two-year absence from the winner's circle. But the Brian Lynch trainee appears to be on the cusp of breaking through after posting his best Equibase Speed Figure (112) his last time out in the Man o' War Stakes (G2T). Another runner who might be nearing a big breakthrough is Le Mehana (FR). Trained by Miguel Clement, the mare has run in graded company in 10 of her last 11 starts dating back to her last start in her native France. In that stretch, she picked up two wins in the States with the most notable the Waya Stakes (G3T) by a neck. The winner of the Belmont Gold Cup earns automatic entry into the AU$8 million Melbourne Cup (G1) Nov. 4 at Flemington Racecourse in Victoria, Australia. Insights From Thoro-Graph Flatten the Curve was just okay in Europe, and spots weight worth a couple of lengths to some pretty good horses. Limited Liability has gotten significantly better with age, and generally gets better as the year goes on. His last two make him a strong contender, and his last two last year would make him a clear winner. Anglophile started from the rail but somehow was wider than Far Bridge last time, which cost him the race. But his figures that day and overall make him a major player here. Grand Sonata spots weight to better horses, and only has one figure in his life that would give him any real shot against these. Tawny Port ran poorly in his return, but ran some races last year that would make him a borderline contender if he still has one left. Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for the Belmont Gold Cup can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.