Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert believes pace will be a determining factor in the chances for his trainee, Rodriguez, in the June 7 Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course.
A wire-to-wire winner of the April 5 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack and a maiden race in fast time at Santa Anita Park Jan. 4, Rodriguez is expected to be sent early in an attempt to outsprint longshot Crudo for the early lead in the eight-horse Belmont, the final leg of the Triple Crown. Rodriguez and Crudo are the two principal speed horses in a 1 1/4-mile Belmont that is otherwise filled mostly with stalkers and closers.
Rodriguez's victory in the Wood followed defeats when third in the March 1 San Felipe Stakes (G2) and second in the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). In each of those two races, both at Santa Anita, he raced from just off the pace, in part due to facing stablemates with front-running styles.
"We tried rating him," Baffert said. "He just didn't want any part of that; you know, he wasn't happy being behind horses. So, unfortunately, he's sort of a one-dimensional kind of horse. When you have the horse like that, you're at the mercy of the pace."
WATCH: Baffert Hopeful Rodriguez Will Be On Lead in Belmont
With Rodriguez drawn in post 3, two spots inside Crudo, whose wins have similarly come in catch-if-you-can fashion, Rodriguez's jockey, Hall of Famer Mike Smith, may attempt to dictate terms and force fellow Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez on Crudo to ease off applying pressure. A slow break from one or the other could quickly alter the pace.
A wet track would add to a further level of uncertainty for Rodriguez. The Authentic colt has raced exclusively on fast tracks with a 2-2-1 record and earnings of $522,800 over five starts for owners SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan.
According to a midday report June 5 from the National Weather Service, there is a 70% chance of rain Saturday in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. More than half an inch of rain is forecast to fall.
"I'm hearing all these different weather reports, so (hoping) for a fast track," Baffert said. "We like fast, but he's doing well."
Rodriguez missed a start in the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs due to a foot issue. Baffert also elected not to run him in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the May 17 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course, feeling he could not train him as he desired into the race with the injured foot still on the mend.
Baffert seeks a fourth victory in the Belmont. He previously won the Belmont with Preakness winner Point Given (2001), and Triple Crown winners American Pharaoh (2015) and Justify (2018).
"I think they were all gimmes. You know, they were all good horses," Baffert said.
