Charles Darwin Looks to Defy the Odds in Norfolk

It seems counterintuitive that, with speed and precocity being so en vogue in the breeding industry, the juvenile races at Royal Ascot are harder than ever to call. The June 19 Norfolk Stakes (G2) embodies that. In its first nine years as a group 2, the winners returned 11-4, 2-1, 11-4, 10-1, 16-1, 6-1, 4-1, 4-1, and 8-1. In the last decade, most winners have returned double-figure odds and two of the last three have been 50-1 and 150-1. There will be several reasons for this, but the main one for form readers is that the races in the run-up are more competitive. This makes it harder to identify the outstanding candidates. At the same time, the rush to precocity has not made connections any more keen to run more than once before Royal Ascot. This could be summarized as: if you see one that has knocked your eye out, trust it, and prices be damned. It is a shock that the Heri-Francois Devin-trained Afjan (FR) is not a lot closer to the favorites. "Like a lot of the Mehmas horses, he's very straightforward with a very good temperament," Devin said. "This race comes a little bit quick but the family has lots of speed, his dam (Al Johrah—second to Lady Aurelia in the 2016 Queen Mary Stakes) was very good, so we think he'll run a very good race. He's much more straightforward to train than Al Johrah, a lot more relaxed. "There are very few negatives, other than he’s a little bit less experienced than some of the others. The family likes it a little bit softer but I expect him to handle conditions." The maiden that opened the card on French Derby day at Chantilly Racecourse was supposed to be all about the Aga Khan-owned Vardif (FR). He did nothing wrong, coming 6 1/2 lengths clear of the main body of the field. But Afjan gave him a head start and a hiding. He ran the last furlong 2 1/2 lengths quicker than the favorite, and seven lengths faster than anything else. And that was after he had clocked an :11.17 penultimate furlong. Can Charles Darwin Prove Another Juvenile Star for O'Brien? An Aidan O'Brien-trained hotshot may seem like a sure thing but Charles Darwin (IRE) will have to defy a 17-year losing trend for favorites in the opener on the third day of Royal Ascot. The Ballydoyle colt has been well supported since striking at Naas last month and is likely to go off odds-on for the fourth consecutive start. Whistlejacket (IRE) became the third Aidan O'Brien odds-on shot to fall victim to the Norfolk hoodoo 12 months ago, and shrewd punters and bookmarkers alike may be hoping another outsider can upset the party by replicating the 12-1, 150-1, and 50-1 victories over the past three years. Coral's David Stevens said: "Aidan O'Brien has already sent out two well-backed juvenile winners this week, and Charles Darwin has strong credentials to be a third, but he's not one we'll be running away from on the day. There's decent opposition against him and in the last decade this has been a hard race for favorites." Moore's two Norfolk victories came at 12-1 and 14-1 but he will be seeking to give O'Brien his first winner with a favorite since Johannesburg in 2001. O'Brien said of Charles Darwin: "We've always thought he was very smart. He's had the three starts so he brings experience to the race, which is always a help. He's a fast colt and we thought this was the right race for him this week." American Connections In 2024, Gabaldon came to Royal Ascot after breaking his maiden in Gulfstream Park's Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes. The gelding ran well to finish second in the Windsor Castle Stakes in his second career start. This year, Sandal's Song aims to do one better, attempting to take the Norfolk Stakes after his debut victory in the Royal Palm. Bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley Farm and Tony Hegarty and campaigned for his first start by Dew Sweepers, Sandal's Song was purchased by Wathnan Racing ahead of the royal meeting. The Mendelssohn colt gets the services of rider James McDonald and stays with trainer George Weaver. The winner of the five-furlong Norfolk, a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win and You're In event, is guaranteed a starting position in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1T) Oct. 31 at Del Mar.