Back at 1 1/4 Miles, Locked Holds Keys to Suburban

Limited pace and a cutback in distance contributed to a flat performance from Locked when he was fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba Stakes (G2) May 2 at Churchill Downs. Freshened for two months to await the July 4 Suburban Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles—the distance over which he won the March 1 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)—Friday's $400,000 race seems a no-excuse spot. Besides having enough distance for his customary rally, there are at least three speed horses in Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian, and Awesome Aaron to suggest a fair tempo. The Alysheba unfolded with slow splits of :24.39 and :48.31 before a pace-pressing Fierceness dialed up the heat and quickened to stop the clock in a track-record 1:40.66. Locked, who appeared disinterested while trailing for three-quarters of a mile, never got close, finishing 6 3/4 lengths behind. His performance in the Santa Anita Handicap was far better, the Todd Pletcher trainee romping by 8 1/2 lengths over Express Train. Eventual Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show ran another 3 3/4 lengths back in third. Locked is 5-1-2 from nine starts with earnings of $1,698,825 for owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Walmac Farm. He is a three-time stakes winner who also captured the 2023 Breeders' Futurity (G1) at age 2 and the 2024 Cigar Mile Handicap (G2) as a 3-year-old. "He's doing well," said Aron Wellman, president and founder of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. "We are looking forward to running him. That was a little bit of a distorted race last time in the Alysheba, so I'm not entirely sure what to make of that, but we are looking forward to getting him back to one mile and a quarter, which we know he thrives at." Locked added blinkers for the Santa Anita Handicap after a slow-starting second in the Jan. 25 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) when racing 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park. Jose Ortiz, who won the 2017 Suburban with Keen Ice, returns aboard Locked, a 4-year-old chestnut son of Gun Runner who broke his maiden impressively over the Saratoga main track as a juvenile. Locked is among two starters for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, the other being Centennial Farms' Antiquarian. Last year's Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner, Antiquarian raced erratically when second to Mystik Dan in the May 31 Blame Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. Pletcher has captured four runnings of the Suburban, including the last three renewals. Three-time Suburban winner John Velazquez rides Antiquarian, and not Awesome Aaron, whom he piloted to a three-quarter-length victory over Phileas Fogg in the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special Stakes (G3) May 16 at Pimlico Race Course. Irad Ortiz Jr., another three-time Suburban winner, accepts the mount on Awesome Aaron. Others in the eight-horse Suburban include millionaire Disarm; San Siro, the fourth-place finisher from the Pimlico Special; Bendoog, an allowance optional claiming winner May 4; and dual stakes winner Honor Marie, who was given time to recover after a case of postrace heatstroke following a hard-fought triumph in the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes April 30 at Churchill Downs. Insights from Thoro-Graph Phileas Fogg improved dramatically when Rodriguez got hold of him, and has stayed at that level. With reasonable weight and the rail he's a serious contender, and the most solid horse in the race. Locked jumped to the best figure run in North America this year to win the Big 'Cap despite a very wide trip, then bounced quite a bit last time. On anywhere near his best he'll take this, but it's a guess as to whether or when he'll get back to that level. Bendoog has been a cut below the contenders, but a lot of Mott horses jump up at Saratoga. Antiquarian ran the best race of his life last time to get in range here, but would need another forward move to have a real shot. Awesome Aaron moved way forward over the last few months, along with most of the rest of Norm Casse's barn. We'll see whether that continues at Saratoga, if so this gelding's last would give him a good shot here, even at the weights. Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and, when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Complimentary sheets for the Suburban Stakes can be found online at Thoro-Graph. Learn more about how to analyze Thoro-Graph data at www.thorograph.com/basics.