Like his sire, Deterministic was good at three, and even better at four. As a sophomore, Liam's Map won a stake, then tallied two grade 1 races at four; Deterministic has won graded stakes at three and four. Most recently, the dark bay colt annexed the June 8 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes (G1T) at Saratoga for St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steve Duncker, and Vicarage Stable. And Duncker is feeling the win’s impact deeply.
On May 25, Deterministic’s trainer, Christophe Clement, passed away; he and Duncker shared a close bond. “Christophe was just a great friend of mine, just a great friend,” he mused. Since then, Clement’s son Miguel has donned his father’s mantle, and the Manhattan marked his first grade 1 win as a trainer. Duncker said of the win, “I internalized it as testimony to Christophe and a milestone for Miguel.”
Like the Clements, Duncker is closely involved with Empire State racing. He is the former chairman of the New York Racing Association (NYRA). He still is a board member of NYRA and Equibase and chairman of the Jockey Club Safety Net Foundation, and he’s involved in other charitable ventures. Duncker previously served as chairman of TOBA’s American Graded Stakes Committee from 2002 to 2006.
Duncker worked for Goldman Sachs in Manhattan, eventually relocating to Palm Beach, Florida, before winding up in Durham, North Carolina. But he originally hails from St. Louis, Missouri. “When I was 13, my best friend took me to the track and I immediately fell in love with the handicapping angle of picking winners and looking at the data,” he recalled. “And then that same friend and I started a business when we were 17, tarring driveways in St. Louis, and we took the money and bought a racehorse.”
As a young man, Duncker even owned a share of champion Bates Motel. He said, “So when I was at Duke in college, I had a friend, fraternity brother with whom I played backgammon, and I won $2,000 from him and he couldn’t pay, and he was given 10% of a yearling for Christmas by his parents. And the shortest version of the story is, he asked me if instead of the $2,000, I’d take the 10%, and I did and sold half to my buddy that I had owned horses with before, the driveway buddy, Ted Levis, he and I went halves.”
Duncker enjoys being part of a group ownership experience, explaining, “I did find over the years that having partners is so much more enjoyable than doing it alone. And so I've gravitated to small partnerships, three, four, or five people, and that’s really where I get a lot of joy out of owning horses and introducing people to the sport is a lot of fun.” Duncker also campaigns horses with friends under the name Jump Sucker Stable.
One example of an enjoyable and successful partnership has come with Team Deterministic. Hinkle Farms bred Deterministic out of Giulio’s Jewel (by Speightstown), and Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable bought the colt as a yearling for $625,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Deterministic showed ability early on. In fact, he won the 2024 Gotham Stakes (G3) in only his second career start.
After briefly trotting down the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail, Deterministic found his footing on the grass. “Well, I think he just has a lot of natural ability on the turf,” Duncker said. “The first time we ran him on turf in the Manila Stakes (G3T), he ran into a horse named Neat who was really at the top of his game, and I believe, finished second. There was nothing at all wrong with that effort. And then he was always right there in the highest-class races.”
Last fall, Deterministic wound up taking the New Kent County Virginia Derby (G3T) and Hill Prince Stakes (G3T). This year, his two wins in three starts have come in the May 3 Fort Marcy Stakes (G2T) at Belmont at The Big A and the Manhattan. How has the colt matured? Duncker explained, “I think this year the big change has been running style, and that when you put him on the lead, he’s a little bit of a different horse, in that his two victories this year may not have happened if we’d have tried to rate him. So I think that’s really opened up a new dimension to his talent and it’s really exciting for us.”
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