Confrontations between representatives from the Epsom Derby (G1) and Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby, G1) have not been two-a-penny in recent years, so the €600,000 Grand Prix de Paris (G1) July 13 at Longchamp could provide valuable insight into where the future form of those two classics might be heading.
New Ground, trained by Henri-Francois Devin, ran a huge race from an unpromising position to be fourth in the Epson Derby and justify Juddmonte's decision to supplement him there at a cost of £75,000.
Back on home soil, New Ground faces the Aidan O'Brien-trained Trinity College, who backed up his excellent fourth behind stablemate Camille Pissarro in the French Derby with a runaway win in the Hampton Court Stakes (G3).
That Royal Ascot success was at the group 3 level, and the market is struggling to separate him and New Ground, who will be ridden for the first time by Colin Keane.
Devin said of New Ground, "He's taken his race in the Derby very well, where the ground was a little bit soft for him. He came back in very good form and although it was a tough race over a mile and a half, he's taken it very well. He seems a little bit more mature than he was, it was a big learning experience, and he had to take in a lot."
New Ground appeared to appreciate having more pace to run at when charging home at Epsom, although Juddmonte's Europe and Ireland racing manager, Barry Mahon, is hopeful the colt will cope fine if the six runners end up going a more sedate "Parisian" pace.
"I think he's relatively versatile and when you look back at his two runs last year he made the running," said Mahon. "Henri made a concerted effort to hold him up and teach him to settle this year. Ideally something will go forward but I'm relatively relaxed."
Trinity College was the mount of Wayne Lordan in the Jockey Club and made the running before staying on well as Camille Pissarro came up his inner, while Ryan Moore also rode him positively at Ascot.
"He's very well and we're stepping him up to a mile and a half, which we think will suit him," O'Brien said. "He was very green when he ran at Epsom earlier on this season (in the Blue Riband Trial), but he's kept on progressing throughout the season and we thought this looked a nice race for him.
"Everything has gone well since Ascot. We obviously haven't done too much with him at home since then, but he seems very well."
Don't Disregard Key Chantilly Trial
Since the Grand Prix was extended to a mile and half in 2005, six of the winners have come via the Prix du Jockey Club, including in each of the last three years.
The average Racing Post Ratings across the six for their performance at Chantilly works out at 110.5, with the lowest to convert being the 106-rated Imperial Monarch, who posted a figure of 116 when winning Sandown's Classic Trial (G3) in 2012.
Trinity College posted 115, while back in seventh Frankly Good Cen (111) also fits the profile, having enjoyed a ground-saving trip under Augustin Madamet after slightly missing the break, before running into minor traffic problems in the straight.
It might seem counterintuitive to put up stamina as a concern for any horse trained by O'Brien, but visually Frankly Good Cen looks more in need of going out in trip than Trinity College.
"I was very happy with his performance in the Jockey Club on only his third start," Frankly Good Cen's trainer Victoria Head said. "He was still a little immature and I hope he has come on for the run. He seems very well in the mornings. I've always thought 2,400 meters would be his best trip and good ground should suit."
New Ground's 114 from Epsom puts him right in the mix and, while he is some way below the mark set in 2021 by Hurricane Lane, the most recent Grand Prix winner to have run in the Derby, he looks open to further improvement on only his second try at the trip.
The other race that has had a major bearing is the group 3 run on the Prix de Diane (G1) undercard—most recently the Prix du Lys (G3), but on one occasion the Prix Hocquart (G3)—which has provided five Grand Prix winners since 2005.
This year's winner, Rafale Design, would have been a major player here but for a minor setback, and the Aga Khan Studs' Surabad was only half a length off him at the line.
"Surabad's a lovely horse. He's so genuine and very straightforward, and nothing phases him," said Nemone Routh, racing manager to the Aga Khan Studs. "He'll like good to firm ground, he's better on that and stays well, while he worked well this week. He's won over the course and distance and I think he's got a solid chance."
