A boosted prize fund worth almost twice the value of last year's race and some changing plans have produced a bumper 12-runner Prix du Moulin (G1) Sept. 7 at Longchamp and left bookmakers unsure about where to place their faith.
Rosallion returns to the track where he made his name in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1) two seasons ago and looks like he'll get similar underfoot conditions to those he enjoyed that day, as the Parisian sun dries out the ground with every passing hour. Sheikh Obaid's 4-year-old son of Blue Point has not enjoyed the best of fortunes this season and, having been drawn out wide when a running-on fourth in the City of York Stakes (G1) over seven furlongs last month, has once again been done no favors here in stall 11.
This is the biggest field in any of the last 10 runnings of the Moulin and a wide draw has historically been a handicap over a mile around the Grande Piste, where the course turns rightward after barely a furlong. Only Tribalist last year has won from higher than stall 6 in that time, while the statistics from the two French Guineas tell the same story.
Plenty of the traveling contingent have the same problem, with Lockinge Stake (G1) winner Lead Artist in stall 10, and Dancing Gemini in stall 9. Dancing Gemini also has excellent course form, having finished second to Metropolitan in last year's Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1), and comes here off the back of another strong effort when third in the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1) on very quick ground.
Aidan O'Brien's leading contenders fared much better at the draw. Henri Matisse, winner of this season's Poulains, will emerge from stall 2, while The Lion In Winter drew stall 4 as he aims to bounce back from a no-show when asked to lead at Deauville. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on Henri Matisse for O'Brien, with Wayne Lordan on The Lion In Winter.
"Henri Matisse ran well at Goodwood and won the French Guineas around this track. The better the going the better for him," O'Brien said. "We made the running with The Lion In Winter last time which didn't suit him. He has been in good form since."
Alcantor can be expected to improve on his last two efforts, although he might not want conditions to dry out too much. "He had a little summer break and was a bit heavy, but now he's working normally and is in good shape," trainer Andre Fabre said. "It's a very difficult group 1—the best Moulin for some years—but he'll run well."
Sahlan has a turn of foot that should not be underestimated, for all that his style of coming from behind is not an advantage here.
The real wild card is Go to First, who had not shown himself to be among Japan's top milers before running a fine race to be fifth in the Marois after four and a half months off, and might not need to improve too much more to get involved under Maxime Guyon. Masahiro Yokoi, assistant trainer of Go to First, said the 5-year-old son of Rulership galloped well this week.
"His movement was as powerful as always, and since he's showing no signs of fatigue, I believe he remains in very good form," Yokoi said.
Whirl Must Defy Recent Trends in Prix Vermeille
It is not news to most people in racing that the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) has bestowed its favor towards fillies and mares over the colts somewhat unequally in recent seasons, and so the Prix Vermeille (G1), also Sunday at Longchamp, should be a key—perhaps the key—stopping point en route to Europe's middle-distance championship race.
Last year the 1-2 from the Vermeille filled the same two places in the Arc, and the cast for this year's running could see another high-caliber candidate or three emerge from Whirl, Gezora, and Aventure.
Recent Vermeille history has the battle between the 3-year-olds and their elders as a virtual toss-up, with the younger generation edging the last 20 years 11-9.
But the Vermeille has proved something of a graveyard this century for those who have run in that year's classics. France's version of the Oaks, the Prix de Diane (G1) over 1 5/16 miles, should be the logical starting point in the search for the winner come Longchamp in September, yet no filly has done the double since Treve in 2013, with the last four to attempt the feat coming up short.
Whirl comes here off the back of group 1 wins at the Curragh and Goodwood, and was beaten only a neck by stablemate Minnie Hauk when trying to make all in the Epsom Oaks (G1). This century only Tarnawa has won the Vermeille having also run at Epsom, while 21 other fillies have failed.
Quite aside from the difficulties the classic fillies have experienced in this race down the years, there are some extremely talented older horses to contend with, notably Aventure, whose second behind Calandagan in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) looks even better since his win in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1), and Survie, who must overcome a short turnaround from a second in the Prix Jean Romanet (G1), but has the talent to figure.
Of course, either Gezora or Whirl can buck those troublesome trends and win this race. It's just that they will be taking a large chunk out of the market and if ever there was a race that marked the changing of the seasons, then this is so often the one.
Whirl burst to prominence with an emphatic success in the Musidora Stakes (G3) before backing up that breakthrough performance with a narrow defeat in the Oaks and then group 1 victories in the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) and Nassau Stakes (G1).
"Whirl goes back up to a mile and a half again, but she seems to be in good form since her Goodwood run," O'Brien said.
Also for the Coolmore partners, Bedtime Story has endured wretched luck on each of her last three starts, with a wide draw costing her valuable ground when a running-on second to Gezora in the Diane, before she forfeited many lengths to Whirl in a Nassau started by flag, and then got no run in the Jean Romanet.
"Bedtime Story ran well at Deauville last time when she got a little bit tight for room," O'Brien said. "Ryan (Moore) thought there was a chance that she could get a mile and a half."
