A new ratings-based handicap race for Thoroughbred racehorses, based on Equibase Ratings tied to multirace performance, could take place as early as Oct. 24 at Santa Anita Park. Three such handicap races are among 14 "extras," or back-up races, for potential use at Santa Anita next Friday.
To be carded, a ratings handicap—just like any other race—would need to garner sufficient entries when entries are taken, in this case Oct. 19. The races also could be "carried" on an overnight to two more racing programs at Santa Anita for potential use before the end of its autumn meet Oct. 26, or they could be not used altogether if short of entries.
Beyond considerations such as age and sex, eligibility for these handicaps is based upon Equibase Ratings, which provide an algorithmically generated predictive performance score based solely on race outcomes and measurable factors such as speed, race strength, track conditions, and trip factors. So, in the case of the richest of the three potential handicap races for next Friday, that 6 1/2-furlong turf race is for fillies and mares that have a rating number of 95 to 80. The race carries a purse of $65,000.
Those with lower ratings will receive weight breaks relative to higher-rated horses based on a scale, in much the same way that a longshot might carry less weight than a favorite in a major handicap stakes race such as the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).
The goal of the new type of race—which is set to expand to tracks elsewhere around North America—is to replicate ratings systems in other parts of the world, while adapted to the structure of North American racing. Goals include simplifying conditions, improving race competitiveness, and creating larger fields.
Another aim of the system was to provide an outlet for owners to run horses lacking allowance conditions in races that would not put their horses at risk of being claimed from a claiming race. A claiming race is a type of race where horses can be purchased for a predetermined price.
"This certainly won't replace claiming; I think it gives us a really nice complement to it," said Kyle McDoniel, president and COO for Equibase.
One of the handicap races carded for next Friday illustrates how such races might replace some optional claiming races or those with multiple eligibility conditions.
The 6 1/2-furlong turf handicap "is sort of a carbon copy of a race that we've had on the overnight, (that's) still on the overnight, that's been carried with five or six entries for a few days now," said Jason Egan, Santa Anita's director of racing and racing secretary. "I'm gonna try to push them into the ratings race and see if I can find anybody else to get this done."
One challenge is that many owners and trainers are not aware of their horses' ratings and eligibility outside of those who have recently been in contact with the Santa Anita racing office staff. The ratings are not yet published online, though they soon will be, Equibase officials said.
Compared to races in a condition book, extra races also don't give trainers as much planning time to ponder the optimal placement of their runners.
The ratings will soon be listed on the horse profile pages on Equibase.com, giving horsemen and horseplayers more familiarity with the numbers. Listings of ratings for full stables will also be available by trainer, either on Equibase.com, or via racing office access through the technology provider InCompass Solutions.
Both Equibase and InCompass Solutions are part of The Jockey Club's portfolio of companies.
Additionally, "We've worked (ratings) into the Equibase past performances and then we've also made it available to all the other downstream partners of ours of past performances, as well," McDoniel said.
That data could also be utilized to assist handicapping by bettors.
Equibase's senior manager of strategic projects and business development and project manager for the ratings project, Chance Moquett, said the ratings will be regularly fine-tuned as they work to make them as representative as possible.
He noted some of the ratings for some of the top prospects for this fall's Breeders' Cup, mentioning Sovereignty is rated at 104, Mindframe and Fierceness each at 103, and Sierra Leone at 102. These ratings have no bearing on their eligibility and weights for the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar.
"So our rating believes that the race is as competitive as the public thinks, right now," Moquett said.
Equibase Ratings are updated daily. They differ from the company's Equibase Speed Figures, and are meant to represent more than a horse's last race. For a horse to be rated, they must have at least two races and have won at least one race. Their initial rating will be calibrated based on their performance and race quality in those races.
Equibase spearheaded the ratings initiative in collaboration with industry stakeholders, including racing secretaries, data analysts, horsemen's associations, and wagering experts. The rating formula is complex, taking into account raw speed, beaten lengths, layoffs, ground gain or loss, race strength and class, track and distance adjustments, post positions, track bias, track variant considerations, and other factors.
If a horse's last race is an outlier of its overall recent form, it won't send the rating plummeting the way a figure based solely on one race would.
"We've designed the rating to not be terribly volatile, because I don't think we want to see wild swings based on if the horse has a troubled trip or whatever else, and so it's really more about the body of work and less about penalizing for any single incident," McDoniel said.
McDoniel said track management at Santa Anita was keen to be a part of the new ratings and race-scheduling initiative, and Equibase staff is looking forward to working with "a lot of the other racing offices around the country as well."
He wants to make handicaps based on ratings part of many tracks' condition books.
McDoniel did not disclose the costs of the ratings initiative.
"The great news is that we've been able to develop this with internal resources, and this is something we've developed as a service for the industry," he said. "We're not charging racetracks anything. We're not charging any downstream customers anything for it. This is just something that we wanted to do to help move the industry forward."
