Ted Noffey, Brant Head Maiden Watch BC Starters

This column highlights the performances of maidens who have made no more than five starts and who either sold for more than $500,000 at public auction, have siblings that are grade/group winners, or have dams that are grade/group winners. BloodHorse research shows maiden winners, in particular, who meet these criteria are more likely to go on to be graded stakes winners. The list below highlights horses that have met the Maiden Watch criteria in the past 11 months and have gone on to become starters in this year's Breeders' Cup Championships at Del Mar. This week at sunny Del Mar, thirteen Maiden Watch graduates will head postward for the Breeders' Cup World Championships. These alumni, each selected for their exemplary pedigrees or lofty price tags, will compete in six different events across the Friday and Saturday afternoon cards. Six of those maiden winners spawned from Kentucky tracks, a testament to the rising maiden special weight purses at the Ellis Park, Kentucky Downs, Churchill Downs, and Keeneland. While a dozen of the Maiden Watch grads are 2-year-olds, there is one 3-year-old, Dry Powder, that made the cut. A $525,0000 yearling purchase, Dry Powder made her first appearance in March of this year, scoring by a neck in a six-furlong Gulfstream Park maiden special weight. Five starts later, the late-blooming daughter of Gun Runner is bound for the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) on the heels of a runner-up effort to Clicquot in the Sept. 20 Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx Racing. As has been the case in the last two years, the morning line favorite for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hails from Maiden Watch beginnings. That said horse is Spendthrift Farm's Ted Noffey. Named for an infamous social media misspelling of Spendthrift's general manager, Ned Toffey, the lanky gray colt has been untouchable in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. A son of six-time leading Spendthrift stallion Into Mischief, Ted Noffey's progression has been like clockwork—he broke his maiden on debut Aug. 2 at Saratoga Race Course going 6 1/2-furlongs, stepped up to seven furlongs in his first stakes test in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) only to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths, and then finally, solidified his position as the Juvenile favorite with a decisive victory in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (G1) in his first start around two turns. There are few times in recent memory where a 2-year-old comes into the Breeders' Cup with no questions left to answer, and for Ted Noffey, the one question remaining would come in the form of one horse: Brant. Can the best juvenile in the East beat the top gun in the West? Unlike Ted Noffey, Brant has been brilliant but has many questions left to answer before taking home racing's biggest prize for 2-year-olds. The most expensive of the Maiden Watch grads with his $3 million price tag, Brant flaunted his speed with two flashy one-turn victories at Del Mar over the summer. After a 5 1/4-length debut romp, the son of Gun Runner landed the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in front-running fashion over his highly-regarded stablemates, Litmus Test and Desert Gate. However, Brant has been benched since his Sept. 7 win and is unproven over the 7-furlong distance. While trainer Bob Baffert has given the gray a series of six-furlong works to improve his stamina, he'll need to prove he can carry his speed successfully around 1 1/16-miles on Friday. While she was a $500,000 purchase at the time of her July 3 maiden win at Saratoga, Iron Orchard's value skyrocketed following the New York-bred sensation's back-to-back victories in the Seeking the Ante and Frizette Stakes (G1). The undefeated daughter of Authentic, only weeks before the Breeders' Cup, sold for a record-breaking $2.5 million over the Fasig-Tipton digital sale platform in October. Prior to Iron Orchard's sale, the aptly named Schwarzenegger was the second most expensive MaidenWatcher on the list. One of two pricey yearlings trainer Wesley Ward selected at last year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale, along with Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) contender Outfielder, Schwarzenegger commanded $950,000 in the ring. Schwarzenegger, a son of red-hot stallion Not This Time, was caught late after setting dizzying fractions in his Saratoga debut. The strapping bay rebounded handily a month later at Keeneland, cruising gate-to-wire in the Indian Summer Stakes in a stakes record time for 5 1/2-furlongs on the turf. Schwarzenegger, lining up against a field of European invaders on Friday, will look to give Ward a fourth title in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1T). Not This Time wins the award for the top Maiden Watch sire of the year. The Taylor Made stallion has four Maiden Watch offspring bound for the Breeders' Cup. Apart from Schwarzenegger, the sire has the well-bred filly pair of Infinite Sky (a half sister to grade 1 winner Wet Paint) and Time to Dream (a half sister to grade 2 winner Red Carpet Ready) chasing championship glory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T), as well as Breeders' Futurity runner-up Blackout Time in the Juvenile.