There's a lot to look forward to this Saturday. There are 16 stakes taking place across the U.S. and Canada, seven of them graded.
I'm most intrigued by a couple of the ungraded stakes. The Dwyer S. at Aqueduct Racetrack and the James F. Lewis III S. at Laurel Park have both drawn strong fields. In one, I like the favorite. In the other, I'm picking a double-digit longshot.
Let's handicap both races:
Dwyer Stakes
The $200,000 Dwyer S. at Aqueduct has lost its graded status, an unfortunate downfall for a race that carried Grade 1 status from 1983 through 1988. But Saturday's running of the historic one-mile dirt contest has drawn a compelling field of six three-year-olds. Three are proven graded stakes winners.
Some bettors will favor #2 Disco Time (6-5), an undefeated colt from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox. Winner of the Lecomte (G3) during the winter, Disco Time recently returned from a lengthy layoff to dominate the St. Louis Derby by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a flashy 101 Beyer speed figure.
But Disco Time benefited from securing an uncontested lead in the St. Louis Derby, and his 101 Beyer marked a huge jump forward from his first three starts. He's facing two serious pace rivals in the Dwyer, and a speed duel could make it difficult for Disco Time to replicate that 101 Beyer in his second start back from the layoff.
One of Disco Time's key pace rivals is #1 Tip Top Thomas (2-1), who led all the way to win the Indiana Derby (G3) by half a length and the Smarty Jones S. by a head. But he benefited from a speed-favoring track in the Indiana Derby, and in the Smarty Jones he just barely held on after leading by 2 1/2 lengths in midstretch. Drawing the rail could complicate Tip Top Thomas' path to the winner's circle since he'll face pressure from pace rivals to his outside, including Disco Time.
The other speed horse in the field is #6 Crudo (6-1), a gate-to-wire, 7 1/2-length winner of the Sir Barton S. during the spring. His recent efforts (including two on turf) have been only so-so, but the son of Justify seems likely to challenge for early supremacy, especially while adding blinkers.
With so much speed entered in the Dwyer, accomplished turf horse #3 Dream On (15-1) is an intriguing alternative. True, he failed to factor in his only dirt start to date, but that misfire came in his career debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. There were several future stakes horses in the field, and I don't think it's fair to conclude Dream On can't handle dirt based off this one effort. As a son of Not This Time out of Fantasy (G2) winner Mamma Kimbo, his pedigree suggests he can be effective on dirt.
As far as talent is concerned, Dream On fits nicely against the Dwyer field. He's a capable turf miler who boasts wins in the Penn Mile (G3) and Woodhaven S. plus a third-place finish in the Summer (G1) on his record.
While Dream On has shown tactical speed in the past, lately he's been closing from midfield. I'm optimistic he can rate behind the three pacesetters in the Dwyer, then launch a winning rally as the leaders tire from their early exertions.
James F. Lewis III Stakes
A field of 11 juveniles will sprint six furlongs over the Laurel Park dirt in the $100,000 James F. Lewis. The entrants are coming from all over the country, having last raced in Delaware, West Virginia, New York, Maryland, Kentucky, and California.
I'm siding with the California shipper. #10 Balboa (5-2) has knocked heads with tough competition out west and should be tough to beat in his East Coast debut.
Purchased for $875,000 as a yearling, Balboa began his career under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. His first three starts came during the summer at Del Mar. He debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, dueling for the lead through hot fractions of :21.56 and :44.78 before tiring to finish third behind Brant and Civil Liberty, the future first-place and third-place finishers in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
Balboa was much the best when making his second start in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. Allowed to set more relaxed (but still quick) fractions of :22.03 and :45.29, Balboa was still full of run in the homestretch, powering away to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths.
Unfortunately, Balboa failed to replicate that form when stepping up to the Grade 1 level. He was beaten to the lead by Brant in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity and soon tired to finish fifth. Then in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita Park, he broke slowly, trailed for much of the race, and passed only a single rival to finish fifth.
Brant has since transferred to the care of red-hot trainer Brittany Russell, a 32% winner at Laurel Park this meet. Russell has inherited former Baffert trainees in the past, and has found success with them; a high-profile example is Doppelganger, whose first three starts for Russell yielded back-to-back Laurel Park allowance wins plus a triumph in the Carter H. (G1) at Aqueduct.
Overall, Brisnet statistics indicate Russell wins at a 28% rate with horses running for the first time under her care.
Jockey Sheldon Russell, a 23% winner at Laurel this meet, is picking up the mount on Balboa. According to Brisnet stats, Sheldon Russell has won at a 30% rate teaming up with Brittany Russell over the last two months.
Throw in the fact Balboa is now dropping down in class and distance, and he's a compelling choice to win the James F. Lewis.
For second place, I recommend backing #3 Channel the Music (10-1), who was beaten only three lengths when sixth in the Futurity (G3) on turf at Aqueduct last month. Channel the Music has also shown promise on dirt, winning a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Colonial Downs by 6 1/2 lengths before finishing third in the one-mile Sapling S. at Monmouth Park. Getting back to a dirt sprint may unlock a peak performance from the son of Maclean's Music.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like this Saturday?
