Playing Against the Favorites in the Springboard Mile

One of the most competitive stakes races taking place this weekend is Saturday's $300,000 Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park. The one-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier has drawn a dozen entries. There isn't a standout favorite, and in fact, the top two choices on the morning line have meaningful questions to answer. #7 Spice Runner (3-1) is the favorite, which isn't surprising since he's the most accomplished horse in the field. During the summer, he showed fine form against stakes competition, finishing second by two lengths to Comport in the seven-furlong Ellis Park Juvenile S. before turning the tables on that rival by a head in the one-mile Iroquois (G3). But Spice Runner's form has deteriorated since stretching out around two turns. He was never a factor after stumbling at the start of the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1), finished fifth by a dozen lengths. Then in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), he broke slowly and never got involved while finishing last out of seven, beaten 15 lengths. It's possible Spice Runner will rebound while dropping in class for the Remington Springboard Mile. Keep in mind, he's trained by Steve Asmussen, who has won the Springboard Mile four times since 2014. But I'm not keen to back Spice Runner at a short price. #1 Arctic Beast (4-1) is the morning-line second choice. The New York-bred colt is unbeaten against state-restricted competition, winning a Saratoga Race Course maiden special weight by a nose before dominating the Aspirant S. and New York Breeders' Futurity at Finger Lakes. In terms of Beyer speed figures and Brisnet Speed ratings, Arctic Beast is a logical win threat in the Remington Springboard Mile. But can he replicate his best numbers while stepping outside the New York-bred ranks and stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time? Those are two significant obstacles to overcome. Also, drawing the rail could be tricky since Arctic Beast has employed outside pace-pressing tactics in each of his first three starts, and he's unlikely to work out a similar trip at Remington. Since I'm hesitant to support Spice Runner and Arctic Beast on top, I'll side with #2 Time for Music (9-2)--another Asmussen trainee--as my choice to win the Remington Springboard Mile. A son of red-hot sire Not This Time, Time for Music is gradually turning into a quality racehorse. He didn't show much talent in his first two starts sprinting six furlongs or less, but when he stretched out for a maiden special weight racing about seven furlongs at Keeneland, he saved ground in third place before rallying to win by a neck. Time for Music ran even better in a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last month. After dropping as many as six lengths behind a hot pace, he closed ground nicely down the homestretch to finish second by 2 3/4 lengths. In the Remington Springboard Mile, horses with early speed have drawn posts 10, 11, and 12. This should ensure a contested run to the first turn, and--likely--an honest pace. A quick tempo should play to Time for Music's strengths, allowing him to drop off the pace while saving ground before launching a homestretch rally. It helps that he'll be ridden by hot jockey Erik Asmussen, a 27% winner at Remington this meet. According to Brisnet stats, Erik Asmussen has won at a 25% rate teaming up with Steve Asmussen over the last two months. For second place, I'll choose #6 Supreme Good (IRE) (8-1) from the barn of Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek. Supreme Good debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Saratoga and failed to menace, finishing fifth. He ran fifth again when trying the Saratoga dirt in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. But when Supreme Good stretched out over one mile for a $75,000 maiden optional claimer at Aqueduct Racetrack, he moved forward in a huge way, launching a midrace move into a hot pace before surging clear to score by 8 1/2 lengths. This big step forward while stretching out in distance suggests Supreme Good still has upside and can outrun his odds in the Springboard Mile. Selections 1st: Time for Music 2nd: Supreme Good 3rd: Spice Runner 4th: Arctic Beast Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Remington Springboard Mile? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!