Japan's Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes Looks Up for Grabs

As 2024 neared its end, Croix du Nord (JPN) scored his third straight win in the Hopeful Stakes (G1T), then went on in 2025 to win the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1T) and a group 3 race in France before finishing fourth in the Japan Cup (G1T). A year earlier, Regaleira (JPN) defeated males in the Hopeful and parlayed that into grade 1 wins in both 2024 and 2025. In 2019, Contrail (JPN) won the Hopeful and, in the following season, swept the Japanese Triple Crown and finished second to Almond Eye (JPN) in one of the most dramatic runnings of the Japan Cup. In short, the Hopeful usually is a key race for identifying players for the coming year's classics and beyond. And, often, some of the main contenders for Hopeful honors make their case known in preparation for the race. This year's renewal of the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4 miles) race Dec. 27 at Nakayama Racecourse may well turn out again to be a springboard to glory. But the candidates for future fame remain unusually undefined. Croix du Nord was sent off as a massive favorite a year ago on the strength of a 2-for-2 record capped by a victory in the Hai Nisai Stakes (G2T) a month before the Hopeful. This year, there are no grade 2 winners in the field. Punters can consider two grade 3 winners—Shonan Gulf (JPN) and Justin Vista (JPN). Anduril (JPN) and Badrinath (JPN) each have a listed win. After that, there's an abundance of promising but lightly raced colts, almost all of whom look theoretically capable of putting on a good show. Justin Vista has impressed trainer Tatsuya Yoshioka not only with his determination in winning the Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3T), also at 2,000 meters, but also with his raw speed. In a work session a week out from the Hopeful, the colt registered his second "lap," or 200 meters, in :10.8. "It's not a number you see often," Yoshioka said in understatement. "His footwork has gotten lighter compared to his last start, and he's showing improvement." Shonan Gulf caught the eye with a determined stretch move from far off the pace to catch Gene King (JPN) and win the Sapporo Nisai Stakes (G3T) Sept. 6. Gene King, with a win, two seconds, and a third, also returns for the Hopeful. There are some pedigree clues. Justin Vista and Anduril are both by Saturnalia (JPN), who won the 2018 Hopeful Stakes. Saturnalia went on to win the Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas, G1T) the following year, then finished second in the Arima Kinen (G1T), earning the title as Japan's champion 3-year-old male. Badrinath, like the appropriately named Gene King, is from the first crop of the aforementioned Contrail, but out of the Galileo mare Mohini (IRE). He hasn't disgraced his ancestors, posting a second in his career debut and two subsequent wins, culminating in the Hagi Stakes Oct. 26 at Kyoto Racecourse. The 2,000 meters at Nakayama is tough for horses of any age, but a special challenge for youngsters. It starts at the top of the stretch, takes an uphill climb from about 200 meters to the finish, and continues to rise around the turn into the backstretch on the inner loop. The climb is a full 5 meters before the course begins to descend, and then it's back up for the second trip into the stretch.