If one were to measure the influence of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on the Kentucky Derby (G1) through the years, the San Felipe Stakes would loom the larger of the two 1 1/16-mile prep races.
The San Felipe at Santa Anita Park has served as a launching pad for 13 winners of the Kentucky Derby, most recently in 2020 when subsequent Horse of the Year Authentic captured it on his way to eventually taking a Run for the Roses postponed until September due to the onset of COVID-19. The Tampa Bay Derby, meanwhile, has produced two just Derby winners: Street Sense , who won both races in 2007, and Super Saver, who began his 2010 campaign with a third in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Yet when the two races are renewed March 7, the lineups for both races this year suggest each will play a meaningful role in advancing a key Kentucky Derby contender or two on their way to Churchill Downs. The San Felipe carries its usual gravitas, featuring graded stakes winners Brant and So Happy plus five other foes, while the Tampa Bay Downs race has assembled a deeper lineup, luring a more compelling group of Derby prospects than has been typical for the race.
Two Tampa Bay Derby participants are ranked in BloodHorse's Derby Dozen: Further Ado (third) and Canaletto (10th). Brant (eighth) is the sole San Felipe starter in these rankings.
As usual, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is well represented in the San Felipe, with Zedan Racing Stables' 2025 Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Brant and also Speedway Stables' Potente, a sprint winner on debut Jan. 31. Baffert, who has the deepest annual roster of 3-year-old talent of any trainer in Southern California, has won the San Felipe Stakes a record nine times, with his most recent victory coming two years ago with Imagination.
Additionally, he's won the Kentucky Derby six times, topped by two Triple Crowns. The disqualification of Zedan Racing Stables' Medina Spirit from the 2021 Derby for a medication violation denied him from standing alone among trainers in the Kentucky Derby record books as a seven-time winner in the American classic.
But last year's San Felipe Stakes served as a reminder to consider 3-year-olds from other capable trainers. The Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism ran down Baffert's hot favorite in Barnes in the 2025 San Felipe before adding the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Preakness Stakes (G1), and Haskell Stakes (G1) later in 2025. Journalism ran second in the Derby and Belmont Stakes (G1) to Sovereignty, the eventual Horse of the Year.
McCarthy doesn't have a starter in this year's race, but Tim Yakteen—a former assistant to Baffert who has a promising record taking on his former boss—does in Secured Freedom, who showed in the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) behind Plutarch and Intrepido, neither of whom compete in the San Felipe. The former, trained by Baffert, is sidelined, and the latter, conditioned by Jeff Mullins, is awaiting the Santa Anita Derby (G1) next month.
Secured Freedom, a son of Practical Joke , is 1-0-1 in three starts for owners Leslie Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., and Roger Beasley. Those owners and Yakteen scored in the 2023 San Felipe with Practical Move, another son of Practical Joke. That colt would go on to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but was scratched from the Kentucky Derby and laid up for months afterward.
The San Felipe represents a stamina test for many of the competitors—including Brant, a Gun Runner colt who faded to third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his first start around two turns, and So Happy, a son of 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy whose two starts have resulted in a maiden victory at 6 1/2 furlongs and a San Vicente Stakes (G2) triumph at 7 furlongs. Mark Glatt trains him for Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners.
Reigning two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, aboard Brant in all three of his races last year, is not in California Saturday but riding at Tampa Bay Downs, where he has 10 mounts, including Canaletto in the Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Chad Brown. Fellow Frenchman Florent Geroux, who piloted Plutarch to victory for Baffert in the Robert B. Lewis, pilots Brant, a $3 million purchase at the 2025 Ocala Breeders' Sales March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.
Canaletto, an Into Mischief half brother to 2022 Chilukki Stakes (G3) winner She Can't Sing and 2025 Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman, was another seven-figure buy, acquired for $1 million by M.V. Magnier and Peter Brant's White Birch Farm from Fasig-Tipton's The Saratoga Sale in Upstate New York in 2024. His ownership group includes Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith.
His Jan. 25 debut over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park was one of the best unveilings by a 3-year-old this year. After Canaletto was away alertly, Prat allowed two foes to rush up Canaletto's inside, then his mount blew past them when he let him loose en route to an 8-length score.
Drawn on the outside in the Tampa Bay Derby with a short run to the first turn, he is at risk of a wide trip unless he clears most of his eight rivals to his inside or is able to tuck in just behind the leaders
Spendthrift Farm's Further Ado also opened eyes in his maiden win, doing so when he romped by 20 lengths in his third start and first route Oct. 10 at Keeneland. The Gun Runner chestnut then repeated for trainer Brad Cox in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs Nov. 29. The Tampa Bay Derby marks his first of two planned starts as a 3-year-old before the Kentucky Derby.
Video: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2)
Besides these two, expect Repole Stable's Powershift to be well backed at the mutuel windows despite being a maiden who ran second in his only start. Though his Equibase Speed Figure came in light at 78, his close runner-up finish rated much higher on a Beyer Speed Figure scale, earning a 96. Only Further Ado has run a higher career Beyer among the Tampa Bay Derby participants, registering a 98 in his maiden win last fall before regressing to an 82 in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, who teamed with Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to win the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park aboard Class President, picks up the ride on Powershift, a son of Constitution and a half brother to multiple stakes winner and the thrice grade 1-placed Flying Connection. Velazquez piloted Verrazano and Carpe Diem to Tampa Bay Derby victories in 2013 and 2015 for Pletcher, a six-time winner of the race.
Irad Ortiz Jr., who rode Powershift first out, keeps his seat aboard Further Ado. Ortiz took last year's Tampa Bay Derby aboard Owen Almighty and the 2022 edition on Classic Causeway, both for trainer Brian Lynch.
