Pedigree takes a back seat to performance at 2-year-olds in training sales. Granted, particular attention is paid to the progeny of freshman sires but the individuals being offered must possess the build and athleticism of legitimate racehorses.
With all the scrutiny these young Thoroughbreds go through, BloodHorse MarketWatch wondered how good auction results were at predicting which freshman sires were likely to be highly ranked on a leading sires list at the end of the year.
A high average at the 2-year-olds in training sales is no certain predictor of future results at the track but is reflective of the relative quality among a sire's progeny that pinhookers and bloodstock agents perceive are among a sire's best offered at auction.
A review of the combined results from the Ocala Breeders' Sales March 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale and OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale for 2021-25 with Fasig-Tipton's The Gulfstream Sale results included for 2021-22 does show some correlation between price and future race results particularly among the sires that would ultimately rank in the top three on the BloodHorse leading freshman sires list.
The top three freshman sires ranked by average price within their sire class (minimum of two sold) for these juvenile sales during the five-year period include seven sires that would eventually rank among the top three on a BloodHorse leading freshman sires list. These seven represent 47% of the 15 sires considered.
Some consistency can be seen between these five years, with at least two of the top three freshman sires by progeny earnings for 2021, 2022, and 2025 among the top three sires by average sale price. In 2021, Gun Runner and Practical Joke ranked 1-2 on the leading freshman sires list and were among the top three of their class by average price. In 2022, it was Bolt d'Oro and Justify who ranked first and third, respectively, among the leading freshman sires. In 2025, the top freshmen were Yaupon and Maxfield , who ranked 1-2, respectively, at the end of the year. Worth noting is that Gun Runner, Justify, Bolt d'Oro, Yaupon, and Maxfield were all represented by a top-priced horse that sold for more than $1 million.
The correlation between sale average and sires list rankings is stronger if the analysis is extended to these sires' second-crop-year rankings. Looking at sires that ranked among the top three as second-crop sires picks up nine sires, or 60% of the top three by 2-year-old average price.
The sires picked up by leading second-crop sires list will surprise no one. They include the late Arrogate, Charlatan , and Omaha Beach . Arrogate and Charlatan did their best running at 3 and 4 and Omaha Beach did his best running at 3. This group could easily become 10 as Maxfield currently ranks seventh on the leading second-crop sires lists as of March 6 and we're only in the first quarter of the year.
