With Paladin Out, Renegade Up to First in Derby Dozen

1. Renegade Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Todd Pletcher Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY) That was a "wow" performance in the March 28 Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. Eventual runner-up Silent Tactic had a perfect trip, advancing to take command at the head of the lane, and Renegade cruised on past, winning by 4 lengths. Renegade's time for 1 1/8 miles, 1:49.70, resulted in a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, both career highs. As good as this colt was in late 2025, when he placed behind Paladin in the Remsen Stakes (G2), his two starts as a 3-year-old have demonstrated significant progression—leading to him vaulting to the head of the Derby Dozen class with Paladin sidelined. Watch: A New No. 1: King Reviews Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby 2. Commandment Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor, by Orb Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY) Saturday's Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park did not unfold favorably for a closer, and yet he still found a way to come out on top. Still, his nose win over The Puma could have gone either way depending on a head bob, and Chief Wallabee was only a half-length back in third, illustrating how competitive the group from Florida is. The Florida Derby was a classy race, with four horses competing who were ranked in last week's Derby Dozen. One of those, Nearly, has fallen out of the rankings because of his late fade in the Florida Derby and having only 35 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby (G1). 3. Chief Wallabee Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott Constitution—A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY) Though he was third best in the Florida Derby, his future is bright, with upside as he gains experience. He still appears to be learning. Chief Wallabee appeared loaded when stalking the pace in the Florida Derby under jockey Junior Alvarado, but could only offer a mild late punch. "As well as he was traveling on the bridle, when Junior released him, he thought he would probably quicken a little more," Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said. "But, you know, it's only his third race, and they've got to learn to do that. He's getting more experience, and it wasn't a bad race. It was a good race." 4. The Puma Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado Essential Quality—Eve of War, by Declaration of War Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY) Not only does he run for many of Mage's connections, but he shares other similarities with the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner. Mage also was second in the Florida Derby, beaten a length by Forte. (A Derby showdown between Forte and Mage didn't occur when the former was a regulatory veterinarian scratch from the Derby because of a foot bruise.) Just as Mage ran well in defeat in the Florida Derby, so did The Puma, who was away last and raced wide. The race came down to a photo finish so close that, even after watching slow-motion replays, most didn't know for certain who the winner was until the placing judges posted the official results. The Puma's style does seem to result in wide trips. 5. Class President Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC/Pletcher Uncle Mo—Top Quality, by Quality Road Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY) The Rebel Stakes (G2) winner returns in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. That's a race Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has captured four times, most recently with Tapit Trice in 2023. Class President's presence in the Blue Grass gives him about five weeks off since his nose defeat of Silent Tactic in the March 1 Rebel, providing a little more recovery time compared to preps contested this past weekend, where Pletcher ran other horses. Compared to Saturday's Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), it also gives Class President a crack at a grade 1 before Kentucky breeders. 6. Silent Tactic Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse Tacitus—Magical Sign, by Gun Runner Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY) Whether you watch the Arkansas Derby once or five times, it is impossible to conclude that Silent Tactic was anything but second best to Renegade. The latter was superior, at least at Oaklawn Park when racing 1 1/8 miles on the last Saturday in March. Not since Authentic won the COVID-19 postponed Derby in 2020 has the Kentucky Derby winner captured his start right before the Derby. A couple of the last-out prep runners-up (Mage, Sovereignty) didn't have to face the victorious opponents because physical setbacks kept the winners from competing. 7. Emerging Market Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown Candy Ride (ARG)—Wild Empress, by Empire Maker Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm (KY) With Paladin out, he is now trainer Chad Brown's top hope for the Derby (with another in Wood Memorial starter Iron Honor). Though Emerging Market was only a head in front of runner-up Pavlovian in the March 21 Louisiana Derby (G2) and a length ahead of show finisher Golden Tempo—both of whom will likely be 20-1 or more on Derby Day—this colt still warrants respect. Not many horses experience immediate success in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, a ship to a new track, and a stretch out in distance. Yet he handled all of those things. But he likely needs to improve a few more lengths if he is to defeat the demanding company he will face in the Derby. 8. Further Ado Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Cox Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY) Spendthrift Farm—which had the misfortune of having reigning 2-year-old champion male Ted Noffey sidelined this spring—could still make the Derby with this colt, who won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G1) last fall at Churchill Downs. Saturday's Blue Grass is a race in which he seemingly has no excuses. His fastest race came at Keeneland as a juvenile when he romped by 20 lengths in his first route, and he now has a start under his belt at 3 after a comeback second to eventual Florida Derby runner-up The Puma in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). 9. Potente Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY) He and fellow Bob Baffert-trainee Cherokee Nation respectively drew posts 2 and 1 for Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1). At least Potente is a horse that can come from off the pace if others outsprint him for position in the run to the first turn. Cherokee Nation, on the other hand, seems to be a colt that wants to run in the clear, meaning he will likely need an alert start and hustling tactics from his rider to secure such a spot. Potente, unbeaten in two races, again battles Robusta and So Happy, who were 2-3 behind him when he took the March 7 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. 10. Pavlovian Owner/Trainer: Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill Pavel—Mandy's Grace, by Bellamy Road Breeder: Reddam Racing (CA) The Sunland Park Derby winner and Louisiana Derby runner-up aims to become just the fifth California-bred to win the Derby, and first since California Chrome in 2014. While California Chrome was dominant in the state-bred ranks, this colt certainly wasn't last year and this winter, but his two races in open stakes in February and March—coming after the re-addition of blinkers—were highly encouraging. The shades have also sharpened his speed. 11. Incredibolt Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott Bolt d'Oro—Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again Breeder: Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY) Encouraged by how he rebounded from a sixth in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) to capture the March 14 Virginia Derby. Shaking clear of traffic in the stretch, he finished powerfully to notch a 4-length win. As one would expect for an ungraded, one-turn race in March, that race did not draw the cream of the 3-year-old division, but Incredibolt gets credit for style and ease of victory. Let's also acknowledge his success around two turns and over the Churchill Downs surface, having taken the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes (G3) there last year. 12. Reagan's Honor Owner/Trainer: West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo, and Gabriel Duignan/Cherie DeVaux Honor A. P.—Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro Breeder: David Ingordo & Jerry Moss (KY) Without any existing Derby points, he essentially needs a 1-2 finish in Saturday's Blue Grass to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The Blue Grass provides a class test after he dusted first-level allowance competition at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 19 after breaking his maiden there. He's been fast against lesser competition. In winning that allowance, he zipped 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.02, just off eventual grade 1 winner Olympiad's track-record time of 1:42.01 in the 2022 Mineshaft Stakes (G3).