Three Heating Up: Prep Winners Impress Across the Globe

1. Renegade At the beginning of last week, Renegade and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Paladin were 1 and 1A on my Kentucky Derby (G1) list. I thought they had separated themselves from the field a bit, and Renegade's 4-length romp in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) March 28 at Oaklawn Park did nothing to dissuade me regarding his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. He was last of eight through a half-mile in a moderate :47.80 and overpowered seven opponents with a closing quarter-mile in :24.02 and a final eighth in :11.84. Simply put, he was flying late in a 1 1/8-mile dirt race. He improved to a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 5 points to a new top of 98. With Paladin sidelined through summer at least with a condylar fracture, Renegade looks like the best 3-year-old of the class and he's peaking at the right time for trainer Todd Pletcher. 2. Danon Bourbon What did I think about Danon Bourbon before last weekend? I'd have said, "I prefer Woodford Reserve." Slight exaggeration, but you get the drift. His facile 3 1/2-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes March 28 at Nakayama Racecourse boosted his career record to 3-for-3 by a combined margin of 18 1/2 lengths, with the victories coming at about 1 1/8 miles, about 1 3/16 miles, and again at about 1 1/8 miles. He looked like a winner from start to finish in the Fukuryu, stalking the pace from third while nicely settled under jockey Atsuya Nishimura before launching his winning bid approaching the stretch. He easily reeled in runner-up Don Erectus (JPN) and pulled away while striding out impressively. A $450,000 purchase at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Danon Bourbon is from the first crop of grade 1 winner Maxfield out of the winning Tapit mare Wild Ridge, who is a half-sister to three stakes winners including grade 2 winners Cazadero and Dubyuhnell. It's fair to question the quality of competition, but I'm buying the talent. 3. Commandment This week's Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile was a comprehensive analysis of Commandment following his nose victory over The Puma in the Florida Derby (G1) March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He utilized a powerful late charge—a final three-eighths of a mile in :36.52 and a final quarter-mile in :24.38—to complete the last-to-first rally. Prior to the Florida Derby, the bay colt by leading sire Into Mischief outkicked Chief Wallabee by a neck to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Feb. 28, so he's a proven fighter and a fast finisher for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox. He's now earned back-to-back triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures and he's 4-for-5 lifetime with a win on the main track at Churchill Downs. Commandment is a legitimate win contender May 2. Also Eligible I thought runner-up The Puma and third-place finisher Chief Wallabee ran very well in defeat in the Florida Derby. In fact, I'm elevating The Puma off a game second in which he was incredibly unlucky to lose a head bob. I thought he needed the experience with only three prior starts and one win, and he should now be better prepared for the Kentucky Derby from a foundation and maturity standpoint. I've always really liked Chief Wallabee, but the one knock I have with him (something I'll pull from friend Pete Denk and his colleague Kerry Thomas's Thomas Herding reports) is that he seems to buddy up when confronted and looks content to race with the competition rather than being driven to pass them. … Silent Tactic also ran well in a runner-up finish to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. His final quarter-mile in :24.92 probably would have been good enough to win most races on the Derby trail this winter-spring and he remains a big threat to finish in the top three in the Kentucky Derby. … Wonder Dean (JPN) delivered a career-best effort to win the UAE Derby (G2) March 28 at Meydan, collaring pacesetter Six Speed in the stretch and then grinding away to a 2 1/2-length win. He punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with the win, and a 3-year-old from Japan warrants respect. That said, I did not think this was an especially strong cast for the UAE Derby, and Dubai to Louisville, Ky., is a daunting path.