Lexington Wraps Up Road to the Kentucky Derby Series

The 2025-26 Road to the Kentucky Derby series reaches its final turn April 11 at Keeneland, where the $400,000 Lexington Stakes (G3) closes out the preps. At 1 1/16 miles, the Lexington offers one last opportunity for 3-year-olds to secure qualifying points, though the 42 points up for grabs pale in comparison to the 200-point hauls awarded in recent major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps. Distributed on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale, the race mirrors the points from earlier stops on the trail, such as the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), Southwest Stakes (G3), and Sam F. Davis Stakes. Under the points-based preference system begun by Churchill Downs in 2013, those totals determine selection into the race when the Kentucky Derby is oversubscribed beyond its 20-horse maximum field size. The Lexington has occasionally provided a late points lifeline. My Boy Jack (2018) and Tawny Port (2022) parlayed Lexington victories into berths in the Derby, where they later ran fifth and seventh, respectively. More recently, Disarm used a third-place finish in 2023 to collect 6 points—just enough to make the field—and outperformed expectations with a fourth in the Derby on three weeks rest. Seemingly, the only Lexington entrant with a shot to qualify Saturday is Confessional. The Virginia Derby third-place finisher has 15 points and, if he wins Saturday, his total will improve to 35. That's currently insufficient to make the Derby, but defections are not uncommon in the lead-up to the race. The Steve Landers Racing-owned colt returns to Keeneland, where he was a debut winner last fall. Since the auspicious first start, he ran second to eventual Holy Bull winner Nearly in a first-level allowance optional claimer Jan. 2 at Gulfstream Park, and seventh in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs before showing in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. His trainer, Brad Cox, already has three horses qualified for the Derby in Further Ado, Commandment, and Fulleffort, and "if a fourth was to jump up, we'd definitely consider it," he told publicist Jennie Rees of the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association. Confessional is not even the projected favorite to win the Lexington. Rather, it is his stablemate, Shadwell Stable's Ezum, who is pegged as the 2-1 morning-line choice ahead of Confessional at 7-2. Both Cox trainees are gray and/or roan sons of Essential Quality, a dual champion for the trainer. Ezum is a half brother to Beach Patrol, a son of Lemon Drop Kid who won three grade 1 grass races. Ezum has raced strictly on dirt, rebounding from a ninth-place finish in his Feb. 7 unveiling when sprinting 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park before blitzing maidens by 19 1/2 lengths at Colonial Downs in a follow-up start, a one-turn mile March 14. The two worked together April 4 at Churchill Downs in a breeze that convinced Cox to give them an opportunity in the Lexington. "I just wanted to get a feel for them, see where I was, where we were with them. And I liked the move," Cox said. Other Lexington horses expected to be less than 10-1 include the Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots maiden winner Corona de Oro (6-1), and the well-bred New Mexico invader The Hell We Did (8-1). One of the more intriguing entrants is the 15-1 maiden Decisive Win, who is aggressively spotted by trainer Doug O'Neill after a debut fourth March 7 at Santa Anita Park. Bet to 3-1 odds in his debut off a series of fast works, he set a contested pace before weakening to fourth behind debut winner Crude Velocity, who subsequently repeated by 6 3/4 lengths in a blazing-fast first-level allowance optional claiming race April 4 at Santa Anita. The seventh-place finisher from that March 7 maiden race, Memory, also won his next start. Three other competitors from the race lost their next outings, however. Decisive Win recently flashed his speed with a 6-furlong solo gate drill in 1:11 1/5 April 3 at Santa Anita. Decisive Win is by champion Nyquist, who became O'Neill's second Derby winner in 2016 after initial Derby success from I'll Have Another four years earlier, both for owner Paul Reddam. Decisive Win races for Great Friends Stables and Mark Davis, the original owners of multiple graded stakes winner and current Lane's End stallion Raging Torrent, whom O'Neill also trained. Steve Rothblum, agent for Mark Davis, purchased Decisive Win for $600,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Nyquist went on to finish third in the 2016 Preakness, and I'll Have Another captured that second jewel of the Triple Crown, a race seemingly more likely for a top Lexington Stakes performer to pursue after Saturday's race. Gosger was second in the 2025 Preakness after scoring in the Lexington five weeks earlier. In front by 5 lengths with a furlong to run in the Preakness, he surrendered the lead late to Journalism after that one shook clear of traffic following controversial bumping at the head of the lane.