Further Ado Remains on Top in Closing Derby Dozen

1. Further Ado Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY) Some pundits believe him to be a standout Keeneland performer, and not an all-around one. The opposite view is held here. While he has been spectacular in two starts over the Keeneland track surface, winning a maiden race last fall there by 20 lengths and the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) this spring by 11 lengths, the general ease of his subsequent training at Churchill Downs and his fluid stride, coupled with a past graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, suggest that another high-class effort is forthcoming. 2. Commandment Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor, by Orb Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY) Stablemate Commandment follows Further Ado in the final Derby Dozen rankings, climbing a spot, owing to Renegade's descent to fourth after drawing the dreaded inside post position for the May 2 Kentucky Derby (G1). Commandment has not wowed with his training the way Further Ado and Chief Wallabee have, but he's been solid, and in light of his reputation for being an average work horse, it seems best to evaluate him mostly on the basis of his form, which, of course, is excellent. He proved narrowly best of a talented group in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), and the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby should be to his liking. WATCH: King Gives Kentucky Derby Selections 3. Chief Wallabee Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott Constitution—A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY) If asked to identify which Derby horse has breezed best at Churchill Downs, Chief Wallabee would rank on top. He has been sensational in two local workouts while wearing blinkers, which will be added for Saturday's race. That training, coupled with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott winning at a high percentage with the angle, points to an improved performance from him in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. He was narrowly beaten by Commandment in two Florida matchups this winter without blinkers, so any progress with the equipment change puts him squarely in the Derby picture. 4. Renegade Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Todd Pletcher Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY) Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, flying to Kentucky while Derby post positions were drawn April 25, quipped that, upon hearing the news of Renegade's rail draw, he reached for the air-sickness bag. Not since Ferdinand in 1986 has a horse won from that positioning, which can be intimidating, close to the fence and with 19 horses bearing down to secure position. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.—who chose to stick with Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade rather than Further Ado (a couple weeks before post positions were drawn)—will hope for a clean break from Renegade to avoid early jostling that could take him out of position. Due to poor post position luck, he dips a couple of spots in the Derby Dozen rankings. 5. The Puma Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing, TCC Stables, Bruce Zoldan/Gustavo Delgado Essential Quality—Eve of War, by Declaration of War Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY) Those who like Commandment have to similarly appreciate Florida Derby runner-up The Puma, who ran a near-equivalent race, a nose behind the winner. He simply lost a head-bobbing photo. He had a spirited gallop over the Churchill Downs strip April 28, giving off a favorable impression. A start before the Florida Derby, he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), becoming the only horse to defeat Further Ado at a route. He had the tougher trip of the pair, though Further Ado was perhaps rusty while returning from a layoff. 6. Silent Tactic Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse Tacitus—Magical Sign, by Gun Runner Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY) Owner John Oxley, who won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with the John Ward-trained Monarchos, owns this talented prospect, who won the Southwest Stakes (G3) before runner-up finishes in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby. Interestingly, Oxley also bred Further Ado, who now races for owner Spendthrift Farm. Silent Tactic didn't seem to finish with the same gusto in his last two races as he did in the Southwest. He might be a horse who is best suited to be saved for a late-closing burst, as opposed to launching a sustained bid. Those tactics worked for 2009 Derby upsetter Mine That Bird, for example. 7. Emerging Market Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown Candy Ride (ARG)—Wild Empress, by Empire Maker Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm (KY) Flavien Prat, the Eclipse Award-winning rider the past two years, rides Emerging Market and not Florida Derby winner Commandment in the Derby, an endorsement of this colt and his potential for trainer Chad Brown. Prat's decision gave Luis Saez the opportunity to take the mount on Commandment. As for Emerging Market, he did something unique by winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) to improve to 2-for-2, though the waters get much deeper Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. Emerging Market will try to become the first Derby winner to win with only two starts since 1883 when Leonatus did it in the ninth Derby. 8. Potente Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY) When Bob Baffert trainees work quickly, they often run to those workouts. Potente will try to follow suit in the Derby after blitzing 5 furlongs in :57 4/5 April 26. The belief is Potente is the top West Coast hopeful in the Derby, though not by much. He and So Happy aren't far apart, having traded decisions in stakes this spring. Given the undistinguished performances of West Coast horses headed east this spring—Pavlovian's runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby notwithstanding—doubts remain that the California horses are on par with their counterparts from other regions. 9. So Happy Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners/Mark Glatt Runhappy—So Cunning, by Blame Breeder: Leverett S. Miller (KY) Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith flew from California to Kentucky to work So Happy last week. While the colt's 5-furlong time at Churchill Downs April 24 was a respectable 1:00 1/5, he needed some hand urging from Smith through the stretch. The two-time Derby-winning jockey describes him as a horse that will only do what's required during morning breezes. Still, he maintains a high confidence level in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner. "If he runs to the ability that I know that he has, he should run really well," Smith said. 10. Pavlovian Owner/Trainer: Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill Pavel—Mandy's Grace, by Bellamy Road Breeder: Reddam Racing (CA) The twice-raced Emerging Market is the least experienced Derby entrant in this year's race, while Pavlovian is the most experienced with 10 outings. After ordinary form much of his first eight starts, Pavlovian has turned the corner in his last two races. He prevailed in a photo in the Sunland Park Derby and then gave Emerging Market all he wanted in finishing second by a head to that rival in the Louisiana Derby. Two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill points to several key changes, including adding blinkers, working out of the gate in his final prerace breeze, and jockey Edwin Maldonado. 11. Fulleffort Owner/Trainer: St. Elias Stable and Starlight Racing/Cox Liam's Map—Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again Breeder: Athens Woods (KY) With strictly turf and all-weather form, he is a wild card on dirt in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. That lack of dirt experience kept the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner out of this space previously, but he breaks through in the closing Derby Dozen of the season, owing to how he has trained over the Churchill Downs track. His dam, the Awesome Again mare Callmethesqueeze, has also produced both grass and dirt runners, one of which, Power Squeeze, took the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1) in 2024 on the Saratoga Race Course main track. How he reacts to dirt kickback—which no workout can simulate—may determine whether this late runner fires. 12. Incredibolt Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott Bolt d'Oro—Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again Breeder: Deann Baer and Greg Baer DVM (KY) Incredibolt beats out his stablemate Albus for the final spot in the rankings based on the impression he has made locally, and with what seems to be a better draw (post 11 compared to post 2 for Albus). He is the most rested of the Derby participants, out of action since winning the March 14 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. He—like Further Ado—is also a graded stakes winner over the Churchill Downs main track, having won the Street Sense Stakes (G3) last year.