Reddam, O'Neill Seek Third Derby Win with Pavlovian

In the first 151 years of Kentucky Derby (G1) history, only three owners have won the race three times: Calumet Farm (8), Colonel E. R. Bradley (4), and Belair Stud (3). One thing each of those owners had in common were their loyalty to their trainer. Ben Jones, who trained six Derby winners in total, trained each of the first five winners for Calumet Farm—his son and assistant Jimmy eventually taking over the barn and winning numbers six and seven. All four of Bradley's winners were trained by Herbert Thompson, and all three of Belair's by "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons. That historical trend should be on the side of Paul Reddam at Churchill Downs May 2 as he bids for a third Kentucky Derby win with the same trainer, Doug O'Neill, who he partnered with to wear the roses in 2012 with I'll Have Another and in 2016 with Nyquist. "Doug is a lot of fun to have as a trainer," Reddam said about why the two mesh so well. "He's got a good sense of humor, a good perspective. He's an optimist, which helps, and he's probably one of the best in the business at coming up with excuses when your horse loses. It keeps you going." That optimism probably led to many excuses created by O'Neill and given to Reddam when his California-bred homebred Pavlovian was beginning his racing career. Luckily for O'Neill, he wouldn't have had much convincing to do. Pavlovian struggled with the start throughout the fall and winter. In the Golden State Juvenile at Del Mar in late October, he dumped jockey Juan Hernandez out of the gate. At Los Alamitos Race Course in December, he lunged awkwardly and got away last in the King Glorious Stakes. Then, at Santa Anita Park for his 3-year-old debut, he again left the gate with his head high in the air and bumping into his inner rival in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby. "(Pavlovian) had been a disappointment a few times because he's created big problems for himself in his races," Reddam said. "People had asked me earlier in the year, 'Do you have a Derby horse this year?' And the answer was no, we don't have anything close to a Derby horse. If you said pick a horse out of your lineup that would be your Derby horse if you had to have one, I don't think I could have come up with Pavlovian." However, that Cal Cup Derby ended up being a turning point. Urged to keep contact with the field by jockey Mirco Demuro, Pavlovian ended up making an early, wide, but bold run into contention down the backstretch. It continued around the far turn and eventually carried Pavlovian to third. "He should have stopped completely, but he managed to rumble up for third," Reddam said. "It wasn't against the toughest competition, but I thought, 'Wow, that was—in a weird way—kind of impressive." So Reddam opted, as he has many times, to trust in the trainer he's sent horses to for two decades. O'Neill had past success in the Sunland Park Derby, so they decided to test him in deeper waters. O'Neill made several key changes, adding blinkers, working out of the gate in his final pre-race breeze, and, most importantly, the addition of jockey Edwin Maldonado, who O'Neill praised for his gate skills. READ: Derby a 'Dream Come True' for Jockey Maldonado The experiment worked. Breaking well from the gate, Pavlovian stalked the pace and outdueled Express Kid to win by a nose. Then, in the Louisiana Derby (G2) with a spot in the Kentucky Derby on the line, the former poor starter broke quickest of all and made the pace, fighting hard for the full 1 3/16 miles before getting bested by just a head to Emerging Market. The light bulb seemed to go on, which could likely be attributed to the faith Reddam and O'Neill have in one another. "(Reddam and his wife, Zillah's) patience, their support, they're willing to take a chance, is all stuff you need to get lucky enough to be where we're at," O'Neill said. "The Sunland Park Derby was really Paul saying let's give him a chance. Their support and (being) willing to take a chance and always do right by the horse is a huge key to why we're here where we're at." The sudden change in Pavlovian's Derby prospects is much different than their past Derby experiences together. Although I'll Have Another was a huge 43-1 longshot when winning the 2012 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), the pair had enough confidence in him as a 2-year-old to ship him from California to New York to run in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). He would then back up his quality with a Santa Anita Derby (G1) triumph before taking the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. Nyquist was an undefeated champion as a 2-year-old, entering the Kentucky Derby as the favorite and a four-time grade 1 winner. The last time they paired for a Derby runner was with Irap in 2017, who had earned a grade 1 placing at 2, ahead of eventually breaking his maiden in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). "In 2016 (with Nyquist) we went through the front door," Reddam said. "(With Irap) I wouldn't say we went in the front door, but we went in the door just off the front. This is a completely different experience. Pavlovian came out of nowhere." The experience is also different in the fact that Pavlovian was bred and raised at Reddam's Ocean Breeze Ranch near Bonsall, Calif. His sire, Pavel, who stands at Ocean Breeze for $4,000 in 2026, was a grade 1 winner for Reddam trained by O'Neill. The dam, Mandy's Grace, was a winning daughter of Bellamy Road for Reddam and O'Neill. "Being that this horse is a homebred, that part is kind of exciting," Reddam said. "The team from our Ocean Breeze Ranch are going to come to the Derby. The outfit that does our breaking for us in Utah, John Brocklebank, he's coming. It'll be fun to hear how each one of them helped develop the horse." "I feel like the luckiest guy in the world with the crew we've got. From Kentucky to California, we have a great crew of people that have all been together a long time," O'Neill said. "To have a homebred of theirs, and to say we trained the sire and mare is pretty cool." Having been down this road before, Reddam isn't putting too much pressure on himself, knowing if it's meant to be, it will happen. He's ready to just enjoy the experience. "You just never know when is going to be your last one," Reddam said. "The way I tell people to think about the Derby is, if there are 20 horses in it, just blindly, you only have a 5% chance of winning. "My feeling is we could win, we could run last, anywhere in between. I have no idea what's going to happen. I know when they're loading in the gate, my heart will be pounding. We'll hope for the best. If a miracle happens, fantastic. If it doesn't, which is 95% likely, hopefully we have a fun day there." Should the miracle happen a third time, both Reddam and O'Neill will know how to celebrate with one another. "That would be unworldly," Reddam said of winning another Derby with O'Neill. "Paul and Zillah have been such a huge part of my career and all the men and women who work alongside us at the barn," O'Neill said. "They have been such a big part of horse racing and a big part of my life, and their fingerprints are all over Pavlovian, so it's very cool."