Keeler Johnson’s Kentucky Derby 152 Selections

As I type these words, the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is barely more than 48 hours away. Thanks to also-eligible entrants, a full field of 20 horses is expected to contest Saturday's 152nd Run for the Roses. Through the years, I've handicapped a dozen Kentucky Derbys on Unlocking Winners. My picks have recorded four wins and two seconds, which works out to a 33% win rate and a 50% in-the-money rate. I nearly caught a fifth winner in 2019, but missed out after Maximum Security was disqualified for causing interference. Here's how I see the 2026 Kentucky Derby shaping up: Top Choice #6 Commandment (6-1) Only one horse in the Kentucky Derby field has posted triple-digit Beyer speed figures on multiple occasions: Commandment. He earned a 101 when taking the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a 100 when conquering a tough field in the Florida Derby (G1), and those numbers are all the more impressive when you consider the challenging circumstances Commandment faced. In the Fountain of Youth, Commandment saved ground throughout over a Gulfstream Park main track that seemed generally unkind to inside runners through the winter. Despite sticking to the inside for the run down the homestretch, Commandment successfully outkicked the wide-rallying Chief Wallabee to triumph by a neck. Then in the Florida Derby, Commandment trailed a small field through slow fractions of :48.80 and 1:13.00 and appeared to have too much ground to make up. But by clocking his final three furlongs in a fast :36.52, he outkicked The Puma (who made an earlier move into the slow pace) and Chief Wallabee to score by a nose. Commandment isn't completely without tactical speed, but I suspect he'll drop into the back half of the Kentucky Derby field during the early stages of the race. That could be beneficial since I anticipate the pace will be fast, with UAE Derby (G2) runner-up #17 Six Speed (50-1) sprinting hard up front while closely pursued by #16 Pavlovian (30-1) and perhaps #4 Litmus Test (50-1). A fast pace should play to Commandment's strengths. A performance similar to his Florida Derby effort--in which he posted relentlessly consistent splits of :24.55, :24.65, :24.27, :24.21, and :12.31--should allow Commandment to storm down the Churchill Downs homestretch and record his fifth consecutive win. Secondary Contenders In rough order of preference, these are the four horses I'll emphasize alongside Commandment in exotic wagers. I'll play them on top of saver vertical exotics and consider using them as backup in multi-race wagers like the Pick 4. #7 Danon Bourbon (20-1) I'm deeply intrigued by Danon Bourbon, a Japanese raider with an unblemished 3-for-3 record. He has tactical speed, but his best weapon is his powerful finishing kick. He ran the final 600 meters (about three furlongs) of his first three starts in :36.1, :36.6, and :37.3, and he did so while racing distances from 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) to 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles). Like Commandment, I expect to see Danon Bourbon drop farther off the Kentucky Derby pace than usual, but if he handles the change in tactics, he has the late kick to make an impact down the Churchill homestretch. #9 The Puma (10-1) Since I like Commandment, I have to like The Puma, who finished only a nose behind my top choice when second in the Florida Derby. The Puma has improved by leaps and bounds since debuting on Jan. 10. He defeated Further Ado in a hard-fought edition of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), then ran a gallant race in the Florida Derby. He trailed early, made a mid-race move into the slow pace, took the lead in midstretch, and just barely failed to hold off Commandment. The Puma is bred to shine over 1 1/4 miles, and one more step forward could make him a dangerous win threat under the Twin Spires. #1 Renegade (4-1) It's hard to knock anything Renegade has accomplished this year. The rapidly improving son of Into Mischief trounced the Sam F. Davis S. by 3 3/4 lengths (with The Puma six lengths back in third place), after which crushed the Arkansas Derby (G1) by four lengths in an eye-catching performance. In the Arkansas Derby, Renegade blazed his final three furlongs in :36.57 and his final furlong in :11.84. Even accounting for Oaklawn's downhill homestretch, Renegade's final furlong time is eye-catching. Drawing the rail unfortunately complicates Renegade's path to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle, but since he's a deep closer, I'm optimistic he can drop back and avoid the worst of potential traffic issues. #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1) Chief Wallabee has held his own against fierce competition in three career starts. He debuted in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, in which he charged from just off the pace to beat The Puma by 1 1/2 lengths. Then he ran second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth and third by half a length in the Florida Derby. In the Florida Derby, Chief Wallabee tracked the early pace in third place, lost a bit of ground, and then battled back while racing in tight quarters between Commandment and The Puma to fall just short of victory. If the addition of blinkers sharpens his focus and unlocks a career-best performance, Chief Wallabee has the potential to challenge for first prize in the Kentucky Derby. Possible Contenders In order of post positions, the following five horses are ones I'll use in the underneath slots of vertical exotic wagers like the trifecta. However, I won't bet combinations that require more than one of these horses to finish in the top three or four, and I don't plan on using them in multi-race wagers. #8 So Happy (15-1) So Happy has shown flashes of significant talent, and the 100 Beyer he earned when taking the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by 2 3/4 lengths is eye-catching. However, he received a perfect trip tracking a speed duel in third place, and I'm not certain he'll relish stretching out over 1 1/4 miles. #14 Potente (20-1) Potente has come a long way in a short time. In his second start, the lightly raced colt rallied to defeat So Happy and others in the San Felipe (G2). Then in the Santa Anita Derby, he got caught up in a speed duel before staying on to finish second behind So Happy. Drawing in the outer half of the Kentucky Derby field should allow Potente to revert to the stalking tactics he employed in the San Felipe, and fast recent workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in :57 4/5 at Churchill Downs) may help him to maximize fitness and deliver a career-best performance on Derby Day. #15 Emerging Market (15-1) The Louisiana Derby (G2) wasn't the fastest prep race from a Beyer speed figure perspective, but you have to give credit to Emerging Market for getting up in the shadow of the wire to win the 1 3/16-mile race in only his second career start. It's uncommon for horses with only two starts to enter the Kentucky Derby, and you have to go back to Leonatus in 1883 to find the last horse who won the Derby with such a light racing record. But Emerging Market is obviously talented, and five of trainer Chad Brown's nine Derby starters have finished in the top five, so Emerging Market can't be counted out of the mix. #18 Further Ado (6-1) Further Ado was breathtaking in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, staying within 1 1/2 lengths of the pace before taking over to dominate by 11 lengths with a 106 Beyer. But he didn't beat the toughest field, and it's worth noting he's 2-for-2 at Keeneland and 1-for-4 at all other tracks. Last fall, Further Ado trounced a Keeneland maiden special weight by 20 lengths with a 98 Beyer before coming back to earth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, beating a modest field by 1 3/4 lengths with an 82 Beyer. Part of me wonders if Further Ado will regress while facing a deep field at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby. #19 Golden Tempo (30-1) Of the Louisiana Derby runners, the one I like best is Golden Tempo. After dropping 8 1/2 lengths off the Louisiana Derby pace, he clocked his final three furlongs in a sharp :37.19 to finish third by one length against Emerging Market. As a son of Curlin out of the Bernardini mare Carrumba, Golden Tempo is bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles, and a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby could land him a top-four finish at enticing odds. It's worth noting deep-closing Louisiana Derby alumni crack the Kentucky Derby top four with surprising frequency. Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 152nd Kentucky Derby? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week! ***** The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.