Renegade Enjoys Better Luck at Belmont Draw

When trainer Todd Pletcher talked with owner Mike Repole about possible post position landing spots for the $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1), the Hall of Fame trainer wasn't choosy. "I told Mike I'd love between 3 and 8," he said. Renegade, the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the June 6 final jewel of the Triple Crown at Saratoga Race Course, wound up with post 4 at the June 1 draw, so no problem there. Repole and Pletcher's other starter Powershift drew post 2, but the 12-1 shot has enough speed to offset getting shuffled back, so long as he breaks well. "We're happy," Pletcher said. The situation was completely different five weeks ago at Churchill Downs when Renegade was the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and he drew the treacherous rail in what was an 18-horse field. The misadventures of horses breaking from the rail in the Triple Crown opener have been well documented and probably played a role in Renegade going off as the 5-1 second choice in the betting. And the concern was warranted. Shortly after the start several horses veered in and Renegade was bumped hard and pushed toward the rail. It was a wonder the son of Into Mischief and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. did not crash into it. "It had a Mindframe feel to it," Pletcher said, referring to last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) when Repole and St. Elias Stables' Mindframe was pushed into the rail in the early stages and Ortiz was unseated in a scary scene. The trouble left Renegade, owned by Repole and breeders Robert and Lawana Low, 15th after the opening quarter-mile, and to the colt's credit, he showed some courage in mounting a strong stretch rally after he was 12th at the mile pole. Motoring past tired rivals, he seemed a winner nearing the wire, but Golden Tempo, who was last early on and rallied widest and fastest, caught him in the final strides to win by a neck as Renegade settled for runner-up honors. With a better trip, could Renegade have won? It's only conjecture at this point. "What we worried about happening from the rail happened and how can you quantify how much that affected his performance? You don't know," Pletcher said about the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner. "But it can't help to get bounced around like he did. After that, if you take out the first sixteenth of a mile, he got the trip we were hoping for, but that first part was so rough." One thing Pletcher can say for certain is that breaking from the rail in the Derby is a problem. A big problem. "I do feel strongly that the 1 post in the Derby is a disadvantage," Pletcher said. The Hall of Famer speaks from experience as since 2021, "lucky" Pletcher has saddled three horses who broke from the rail in the Run for the Roses. "What are the odds of that happening?" said Pletcher, who watched Mo Donegal finish fifth in 2022 and Known Agenda ninth (later promoted to eighth following the disqualification of Medina Spirit) in 2021 from the rail. Given what he has seen, Pletcher said he would not be averse to a system that allocates Kentucky Derby posts based on the number of qualifying points. Each of Pletcher's rail horses was coming off a win in a major, 100-point prep and had rough trips at Churchill Downs. Since the advent of the single gate, Renegade is the only 3-year-old to finish better than fifth, and no horse has won from the rail in the Run for the Roses since Ferdinand in 1986. But there is some good news about all of this. Since 2022, two of those Derby rail runners came back five weeks later to win the Belmont Stakes: Pletcher's Mo Donegal and Dornoch in 2024. Increasing that number to three on the first Saturday in June would surely be a great way to help erase the sting of the first Saturday in May when the luck of the draw worked against Renegade.