Commandment at 6-1 the Value Play of the Belmont

A year ago, the results of the Kentucky Derby (G1) were replicated at Saratoga Race Course in the Belmont Stakes (G1) when Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza finished 1-2-3, just as they had run five weeks earlier in the Run for the Roses. Another Derby trifecta won't happen when the Belmont is renewed June 6. The lack of participation from Derby show finisher Ocelli ensures that, but even beyond his absence, the complexion of the Belmont suggests a different finish. The pace in the Belmont figures to be much slower, making life tougher on late-closing Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo, who pounced from behind a race flow that assisted him and other deep closers. Of the top finishers from the Derby, second-place Renegade and fourth-place Chief Wallabee appear more likely to threaten in Saturday's 1 1/4-mile race. They each had more trouble than the winner, with Renegade hammered by incoming rivals in the opening 110 yards, and Chief Wallabee raced in traffic for much of the Derby and being jostled in search of room in the early stretch. Both command respect, though neither is my choice to win the Belmont. I'll try my luck instead with Wathnan Racing's Commandment (No. 7), whose stellar stakes form through the winter and spring has been quickly forgotten, despite just one loss as a 3-year-old when seventh in the Derby. The Into Mischief colt had a sneaky-tough trip in the Derby. Sluggishly away from the gate, he began the race a couple of lengths behind his rivals and then, under hustling, catch-up efforts from Luis Saez, raced wide around both turns. He advanced all the way from 14th into fourth before flattening out late. Trainer Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Belmont Stakes (G1) with Essential Quality, felt the colt's effort was better than it appeared. I concur. Patient handling in the Belmont under Hall of Famer John Velazquez may allow for a stronger finish—the kind of efforts exhibited from the son of Into Mischief in winning the Florida Derby (G1), Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and Mucho Macho Man Stakes—all at Gulfstream Park. He is the value on the morning line at 6-1 odds as the fourth favorite behind Renegade (2-1), Chief Wallabee (3-1), and Golden Tempo (9-2). Repole Stable's and Robert and Lawana Low's Renegade (4) is a deserving favorite, having stylishly won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park this winter and spring, only to draw the dreaded rail post in the Derby. He paid the price, with the field impeding him in a scramble for position in the race's opening stages. Beyond that, however, his trip was pretty smooth, with Irad Ortiz Jr. wisely allowing the race to come to him. His mount fired and was simply outkicked by Golden Tempo, though only by a neck. He is a threat to bounce back from a rail draw, just as Mo Donegal did in the 2022 Belmont for Ortiz, trainer Todd Pletcher, and co-owner Repole Stable. Mo Donegal is one of four Belmont Stakes winners for Pletcher, a Hall of Famer. Michael and Katherine Ball's Chief Wallabee (3) was arguably the flashiest of all the Derby competitors during morning workouts at Churchill Downs, with many observers, myself included, expecting him to improve with blinkers. But the colt, as in other route efforts, didn't explode when called upon in the stretch by jockey Junior Alvarado. He again stayed even-paced through the lane. If Alvarado, perhaps, can work out a trip in the clear, that could result in the breakthrough the colt needs to pick up more than a minor award. His Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, took the Belmont last year with Sovereignty—the eventual Horse of the Year in 2025. Klaravich Stables' Emerging Market (8), who beat Golden Tempo in taking the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in March, didn't run to his potential in the Derby after racing surprisingly close to the pace. Five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, bidding to win his first Belmont, noted that the colt lost a shoe in the Derby, speculating it may have fallen off amid jostling into the first turn. That could explain in part why he underperformed over the second half of the race. Limited experience may have further contributed to his undoing and fade to 10th. He had just two starts heading into the Derby, and he may have become rattled by the large field and circumstances that less impacted more seasoned rivals. Emerging Market, Chief Wallabee, and Renegade all have the advantage of having trained at Saratoga for the past month. Picks: 7-4-3-8