Trainer Charlie Appleby has enjoyed resounding success with his North American shippers. He's won a dozen Breeders' Cup races and 19 other Grade 1 prizes in the U.S. and Canada.
By comparison, Appleby has left a relatively small mark on the Belmont Derby (G1T) and Belmont Oaks (G1T), a pair of top-tier summer turf prizes for 3-year-olds. He's yet to win the Belmont Derby and has nabbed the Belmont Oaks only once, with Cinderella's Dream in 2024.
The story may shift in 2026. Appleby has brought well-regarded contenders to Saturday's Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks at Saratoga Race Course, and there's a chance he'll win both races.
Belmont Oaks
Appleby's candidate for Oaks glory is #8 Abashiri (5-2), a beautifully bred daughter of the undefeated Frankel out of Prix Saint-Alary (G1) winner Sobetsu, by acclaimed sire Dubawi. This makes Abashiri a full-sister to English Rose, winner of the 2024 Balanchine Stakes (G2T) at Meydan and runner-up in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T) at Keeneland.
Abashiri opened her career with a four-length maiden win over the synthetic track at Kempton Park. Then—following a six-month layoff—she switched to turf and stepped up sharply in class for the 1000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket. In a 19-horse field, she finished a respectable fifth, beaten only four lengths by Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) winner True Love.
Unsurprisingly, Abashiri stepped forward in her second start of 2026. In the Irish 1,000 Guineas (G1), she ran third by three lengths against multiple group 1 winner Precise and finished only half a length behind runner-up True Love. This form was flattered when Precise and True Love returned to finish first and third in the Coronation Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot.
Abashiri has yet to race beyond one mile, but her pedigree suggests she'll relish stretching out over 1 1/8 miles in the Belmont Oaks. Precise would be a heavy favorite in this race, so Abashiri's fine showing in the Irish 1,000 Guineas stamps her as the filly to beat in her North American debut.
For the minor awards, consider #3 Kensington Lane (10-1) at a price. The fifth-place finisher from the Irish 1,000 Guineas previously scored in the Athasi Stakes (G3) at the Curragh and is progressing in a positive direction this season for trainer Donnacha O'Brien. A top-four finish isn't out of the question.
Belmont Derby
The 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby has drawn a competitive 10-horse field. You can make a case for any entrant to crack the trifecta, and most of them wouldn't be particularly surprising winners.
Among the North American runners, I'm most attracted to #3 Remember Mamba (7-2). The son of acclaimed grass sire Kitten's Joy won his first three starts, including the Transylvania Stakes(G3T), before running a solid second in the American Turf (G1T). He was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths by Stark Contrast, whose only defeat from five turf starts came when second by three-quarters of a length to Gstaad in the 2025 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) at Del Mar.
But while I like the chances of Remember Mamba, my top choice is Appleby's #6 Pacific Avenue (6-1), a son of Dubawi shipping in from Europe.
Pacific Avenue knocked heads with some fine horses last year. He ran fourth by 3 3/4 lengths in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) against Bow Echo (IRE), an unbeaten colt who has since won the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) and St. James's Palace Stakes (G1). And he ran seventh by 6 1/2 lengths in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1), a7-furlong sprint in which the runner-up was none other than Gstaad.
This year, Pacific Avenue is 0-for-4, but he hasn't missed the trifecta. Last time out, he started as a longshot in the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (G1), but finished a respectable third, beaten four lengths by Gstaad.
I'm optimistic Pacific Avenue will improve again as it stretches out over 1 1/8 miles for the first time. His sire, Dubawi, has sired plenty of long-winded runners, including 1 1/2-mile Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) winners Rebel's Romance and Yibir. His dam sire, Shamardal, won the Prix du Jockey Club (G1) over 2,100 meters (about 1 5/16 miles). And his full-brother, Highland Avenue, scored both of his stakes wins--including the Darley (G3)—racing 1 1/8 miles.
If his 6-1 morning-line odds hold up, I view Pacific Avenue as a compelling candidate for a win bet.
For exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta, don't leave #2 Bottas (10-1) out of the mix. Last year's Pilgrim Stakes (G2T) winner was compromised by a slow early/fast late race shape when kicking off 2026 in the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G2T). Nevertheless, he closed ground to finish third, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the pace-pressing winner #8 West End Kid (3-1).
If Bottas gets a better pace setup in his second start of the season, he can step forward and challenge for a top-four finish at double-digit odds.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Belmont Oaks and Belmont Derby?
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