Will a Sophomore Surprise in the Christophe Clement?

The feature race at Saratoga Race Course this weekend is Saturday's $500,000 Christophe Clement (G1), an important 1 1/2-mile turf test awarding a "Win and You're In" berth to the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). Formerly known as the Sword Dancer, the race has been renamed in honor of trainer Christophe Clement, who passed away in 2025. Clement won this race five times, including in 2021, 2022, and 2024. The 2026 Christophe Clement has drawn a seven-horse field without much pace on paper. #3 Ole Crazy Bone (4-1) looms as the likeliest pacesetter after leading all the way to win Saratoga's 1 3/8-mile Bowling Green (G2) last month, but in that race, he set slow fractions of :24.62, :49.54, and 1:15.22 and still proved only a nose better than the pace-pressing #5 Fort George (GB) (9-2). Stretch-running #6 Minaret Station (3-1) wasn't far behind either, finishing third by half a length while gobbling up ground down the homestretch. The lack of pace in the Christophe Clement could lend an advantage to #1 Ancient Egypt (IRE) (5-1), an up-and-coming three-year-old shipping in from Europe. Ancient Egypt has tactical speed, and he's put it to good use during his sophomore season. He opened 2026 in the 1 1/4-mile Newmarket S., in which he pressed the pace before taking over to triumph by two lengths. More recently, he's finished second by a neck in the 1 1/2-mile King Edward VII (G2) at Royal Ascot and second by a head in the 1 1/2-mile Grand Prix de Paris (G1). In both of those contests, he raced forwardly. Ancient Egypt's only poor showing this year came in the historic Derby (G1) at Epsom, in which he tired to finish eighth by 13 lengths. But he raced over soft ground that day and may not have cared for the footing. He's excelled over good-to-firm going and should find the inner turf course at Saratoga suitable. I anticipate Ancient Egypt will work out a perfect trip in the Christophe Clement. He can set or press the pace set by Ole Crazy Bone and then kick on to claim first prize at a bit of a price. He's my top choice to win. The top three finishers from the Bowling Green are all logical contenders for the minor awards. If Ancient Egypt livens up the pace of the Christophe Clement even a little, then Fort George and Minaret Station may be able to turn the tables on Ole Crazy Bone. Minaret Station in particular is intriguing; the Bowling Green marked his first start beyond 1 1/16 miles, and he was full of run down the homestretch, clocking his final quarter-mile in :22.07 per the Equibase GPS result chart. But #7 Survie (IRE) (6-1), a five-year-old mare facing males, also has a chance to factor. Survie has shown Group 1 form abroad for several seasons, running second in the 2024 Prix de Diane (G1), second in the 2025 Prix Jean Romanet (G1), third in the 2025 Pretty Polly (G1), and third in the 2026 Neom Turf Cup (G1). Survie made her North American debut in the 1 1/2-mile Glens Falls (G2) on Aug. 2 at Saratoga. Despite rating in sixth place behind pedestrian fractions of :25.54, :52.61, and 1:18.91, she unleashed a furious finish in the final quarter-mile to win by 1 3/4 lengths. According to the Equibase GPS result chart, Survie ran her final quarter-mile in :22.07. Even though the Christophe Clement field doesn't contain much pace, it's likely to unfold at a quicker tempo than the Glens Falls, which could set up Survie for an effective homestretch rally. I think she'll produce a strong showing even while wheeling back on short rest. #4 Program Trading (GB) (7-2), a three-time Grade 1 winner in 2023-24, is rounding back into form. He ended a seven-race losing streak by posting back-to-back wins in the 1 1/8-mile Monmouth S. and 1 3/8-mile United Nations (G2). But Program Trading is untested over 1 1/2 miles, and a decelerating pace in the United Nations favored the deep-closing tactics he employed. The Christophe Clement is shaping up as a tougher test. Rounding out the field is #2 Tawny Port (8-1), trained by Christophe Clement's son, Miguel Clement. Tawny Port was decisively best when last seen in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup (G2), drawing off to score by 2 1/2 lengths, but cutting back to 1 1/2 miles is a question mark. He's 0-for-10 at this distance, though he's cracked the trifecta five times, including when second to Ole Crazy Bone in the 2025 Kentucky Turf Cup (G2). Selections 1st: Ancient Egypt 2nd: Survie 3rd: Minaret Station Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Christophe Clement? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!