Counting Stars Faces Saratoga's History in Alabama

West Point Thoroughbreds' Counting Stars has been nothing short of perfect this summer at Saratoga Race Course, and she appears primed to sweep the 3-year-old filly series with a third grade 1 triumph in the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G1) Aug. 22. As the field of six's lone stakes winner, the 3-year-old daughter of Honor A. P. is likely to be the biggest stakes favorite of the meet and is already deemed 1-2 on the morning line. However, historically, this is exactly when Saratoga itself seems to strikes. The legendary track has earned the nickname "Graveyard of Champions" thanks to horses like Man o' War, Gallant Fox, Secretariat, and American Pharoah leading a long and talented list of horses that have fallen victim to surprise defeats in races believed they couldn't possibly lose. Counting Stars is not officially a champion yet—although after two convincing defeats of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Always a Runner has her well on the path to divisional Eclipse honors—but Saratoga has reminded over and over again there is no such thing as a sure bet. That history could be her biggest rival when she loads into post 6 for the 1 1/4-mile test, and if it strikes it would lead to a new filly honored with one of Saratoga's grade 1 garlands of flowers. Still, despite that history, dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse is not fazed, entering Saturday with belief his filly could just simply be a cut above the rest. "As we know in horse racing, something weird can always happen," Casse said. "I'm a trainer, there's always concern, but I'm not going to lose any sleep worrying about it. I feel very confident in her." In fact, the biggest concern of Casse's is just simply getting Counting Stars to Saturday as she has shown signs of being ready to go in the mornings. "She is feeling so good that she's jumping off the ground," Casse said. "Right now, she's in bubble wrap. She's as good, if not better, than she's ever been." Five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is a perfect 3-for-3 on the filly, riding her to a debut win at Churchill Downs last fall and both grade 1 victories at the Spa. In the June 5 Acorn Stakes (G1), he rated off the pace and successfully punched home for a 3 3/4-length win. In the July 25 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), he took it to his rivals early by setting the pace, dueled with Always a Runner in the stretch, and opened up to win by 4 1/4 lengths. Casse's strategy for Saturday will be simple: leave it in the rider's hands. "I like our post, I think Irad will be able to decide what he wants to do," Casse said. "If somebody decides they want to go to the lead, they can. If they don't she'll be on the lead. But we'll leave that to Irad. "She's really sharp, she's on her game. I would think she's going to be pretty eager early." The only question mark for the filly, as it will be for most of the fillies, is the 1 1/4-mile distance. However, given how she's won over 1 1/8 miles in her last two starts, Casse doesn't believe it will be any issue. Casse also finds himself in the strange position of being one of the rivals trying to write another chapter to Saratoga's storied history of upsets. He trains Measure for Gary Barber, Bridlewood Farm, and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. Measure finished third, 6 3/4 lengths behind Counting Stars in the CCA Oaks. That race was designed to be an audition to grade 1 company with an eye specifically on the Alabama's distance for the daughter of Essential Quality. Her closing kick passed the audition. "The mile and a quarter, that's going to help Measure," Casse said. "I could see, if something unforeseen were to happen and maybe Counting Stars didn't bring her 'A' game, Measure could be right there as well. I go in with a lot of confidence with Measure." Flavien Prat will pick up the ride. Missing from the field is Counting Stars' chief rival from her last three starts: Always a Runner. But as trainer Chad Brown attempts to get her back in the win column with a change of scenery in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1) Sept. 19 at Parx Racing, he sends another from his barn to take on Counting Stars in the Alabama. That job falls to My Gun's Loaded, owned by Always a Runner co-owner Douglas Scharbauer. The filly is 2-for-2 in Brown's care after taking a 7-furlong maiden race June 6 at Saratoga by 4 1/4 lengths before beating winners by 3 lengths in a 1-mile allowance optional claimer July 24 at the Spa. A daughter of Gun Runner, My Gun's Loaded's biggest task will be adding an extra quarter-mile of distance in career start No. 4. Brown noted he made the a similar jump with success when Randomized exited a victory in the 1-mile Wilton Stakes to take the Alabama in 2023. Randomized was making her fifth start in the Alabama and did have an earlier start at 1 1/16 miles. "I do believe she belongs with those fillies class-wise, but the question is jumping all the way from a mile to a mile and a quarter," Brown said. "She gives me a feel that she can do it, but it's a big jump. She's still on an upward trajectory from what I see in her development in the mornings." At 3-1 and 6-1, respectively, My Gun's Loaded and Measure are the morning line's top two threats to Counting Stars. At double-digit odds are Pantofel Stable, Wachtel Stable, and Barber's last-out maiden winner Ati Girl (10-1), who finished second in a 1 1/4-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs this spring for Hall of Famer Bill Mott; C R K Stable's A. P.'s Girl (12-1), third in the George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) this spring for trainer Peter Eurton; and Icon Racing Stable's Nycon (20-1), twice stakes-placed for trainer Whit Beckman and sixth in the CCA Oaks.