Favorites Loom Large in Alabama, Pacific Classic

This Saturday, a pair of Grade 1 races contested over the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on dirt will take place at opposite ends of the United States. At Saratoga Race Course in New York, the $600,000 Alabama (G1) for three-year-old fillies is the feature attraction. Across the country at Del Mar in California, the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) has drawn a strong field. Let's handicap both races: Alabama (G1) Only half a dozen fillies are slated to face the starter in the Alabama, and it's hard to look past #6 Counting Stars (1-2) as the most likely winner. Unsurprisingly, she's my top choice. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Counting Stars has improved with every start this year. During the spring, she dominated the Fantasy (G2) by 5 1/2 lengths and ran third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Then Counting Stars took her talents to Saratoga and elevated her game to a new level. In the Acorn (G1), she stayed within 1 1/2 lengths of the pace before taking over to defeat Kentucky Oaks 1-2 finishers Always a Runner and Meaning by 3 3/4 lengths. Then in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), she led all the way and repulsed a challenge from Always a Runner to score by 4 1/2 lengths. Both the Acorn and the Coaching Club American Oaks took place over 1 1/8 miles. Counting Stars finished well in both races, recording final furlong times of :12.73 (in the Acorn) and :12.84 (in the Coaching Club American Oaks). Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Alabama shouldn't be an obstacle for Counting Stars, especially since the Alabama field contains little pace on paper, affording Counting Stars the opportunity to secure an uncontested lead. For the minor awards, #4 My Gun's Loaded (3-1) is a logical contender. The Chad Brown trainee has dominated both of her starts at Saratoga this year, winning a seven-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths and a one-mile $55,000 allowance optional claimer by three lengths. However, #2 Ati Girl (10-1) is also worth considering at a bigger price. The daughter of Nyquist has already raced over 1 1/4 miles on dirt, finishing second in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. On that occasion, Ati Girl was disadvantaged by trying to close ground against slow pace fractions of :23.84, :49.18, and 1:14.77, but she never stopped trying and was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths while clocking her final quarter-mile in a strong :23.93 per the Equibase GPS result chart. Ati Girl recently broke her maiden in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga in which she tracked the pace in third place before taking over to triumph by 2 1/2 lengths. Her tactical speed should come in handy against this largely paceless Alabama field, so there's a chance Ati Girl will chase Counting Stars all the way around the track and hang on for a top-two finish. Pacific Classic (G1) I have long held the opinion that #11 Knightsbridge (5-2) is a seriously talented racehorse. I viewed him as a potential 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender after he dominated his debut at Churchill Downs by 10 1/2 lengths, but repeated layoffs largely kept Knightsbridge out of the stakes ranks until the end of 2025. Since then, Knightsbridge has shown flashes of sheer brilliance. At Gulfstream Park, he rattled off daylight wins in the Mr. Prospector (G3), Fred W. Hooper (G3), and Gulfstream Park Mile (G3) over distances from seven furlongs to one mile. He won the latter race by a staggering 11 1/4 lengths even after chasing blazing fractions of :23.53, :45.33, and 1:09.28 without any run-up distance. According to the Equibase GPS result chart, he ran his second quarter-mile in :21.64. Knightsbridge misfired in his next start, tiring to finish sixth in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1). But he showed signs of returning to form in the one-mile Metropolitan H. (G1), finishing second against 2025 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Nysos while edging 2025 Preakness (G1) winner Journalism for second place. Then, on July 18, Knightsbridge made his two-turn debut in the 1 1/8-mile Monmouth Cup (G3) at Monmouth Park. The result? A gate-to-wire victory by 10 1/4 lengths. Setting sharp pace fractions of :23.38, :46.57, and 1:10.63 did nothing to tire Knightsbridge, as he clocked his final three furlongs in a swift :36.88 to reach the finish line in a blazing 1:47.51. As a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by Preakness winner Bernardini, Knightsbridge has the pedigree to shine around two turns. His achievements racing one mile or less notwithstanding, it's possible Knightsbridge has been crying out for longer distances all this time. I'm willing to bet Knightsbridge can deliver another giant performance in the Pacific Classic and secure first prize. Among the rest of the entrants, #7 Hit Show (6-1) is an obvious contender. He's a veteran graded stakes performer who has performed well over 1 1/4 miles (or its metric equivalent), winning the 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1) and finishing second in the recent Suburban (G2) at Saratoga. A top-three finish looks well within reach for this capable Brad Cox trainee. But don't underestimate #3 Finger (8-1), a three-year-old son of Gun Runner shipping in from Japan. He handled 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) when taking the Tokyo Derby on Japan's National Association of Racing (NAR) circuit, and while the Pacific Classic is a much tougher race on paper, Finger wouldn't be the first Japanese raider with NAR form to outrun expectations in North America. Marche Lorraine upset the 2021 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) at 49-1, and Mandarin Hero came within a nose of winning the 2023 Santa Anita Derby (G1) at 8-1. Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Alabama and Pacific Classic? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!