Cox's Confidence in Leading Change Paid Off in Travers

Despite being a 10-1 longshot while making only his third career start in the Travers Stakes (G1) Aug. 29 at Saratoga Race Course, Leading Change's victory was not much of a surprise to anyone who studied the usual progression of a Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old who broke his maiden in the late spring. The lens of hindsight reveals the signs were there that this horse was a little different. Usually one to take advantage of his allowance conditions, the two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer signaled his belief in the colt's ability when he sent Leading Change into stakes waters immediately after his maiden triumph in June, a leap of faith that paid off when the bay runner prevailed in the Indiana Derby (G3). When he was asked following that race whether he'd head next to the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) with the colt, Cox tipped his hand further when he stated that the Travers was very much on the table. Fast forward to Saturday, and that confidence paid off tremendously. The son of Gun Runner became the first horse in 157 editions to win the Travers in only his third start while jumping from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles in his three starts. READ: Leading Change Pulls the Upset in the Travers Stakes "How easy he is on himself," Cox said Aug. 30 about what made Leading Change different and allowed him to make a quicker climb up the class ladder. "His works, what he's able to do in the mornings, doesn't overdo it, stays on well. I thought he was a horse that would handle the mile-and-a-quarter, and I think the Gun Runner came through in the last eighth of a mile." The field was tough, led by Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Golden Tempo, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo, and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Renegade. Cox was very familiar with the group, having competed against them all spring with grade 1 winners Commandment, who, like Leading Change, is owned by Wathnan Racing, and Spendthrift Farm's Further Ado. That familiarity only added to Cox's confidence that Leading Change could make an impact. "This is no knock on the other 3-year-olds, but there's just no one to be scared of," Cox said. "I felt going into the race yesterday, and someone asked me who I liked, I said, 'I wouldn't be shocked if any of these horses win.' There's no dominant horse. "I'm someone that looks at numbers. Going into the race yesterday, I thought my horse was the fastest horse based off what little he had done." Purchased for $800,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Leading Change was ready to debut at Keeneland last October when, the morning of the race, he was discovered to have bone bruising, which sent him to the bench ahead of his 3-year-old year. Cox and Wathnan racing manager Case Clay knew the time required to recover would likely knock him off the Derby trail, but they thought so highly of him that they immediately put the Preakness as his target despite him having a zero in the start column. Even with Commandment and Further Ado being considered among the best of the 3-year-old crop during the spring, as Cox watched the Derby trail unfold, he couldn't help but wonder what Leading Change could do against this class. "I've always felt that this was the most talented horse in the group," Cox said. "Further Ado has always been an incredibly good work horse, and Commandment is just super honest and tries hard every time. It's a solid group of horses, and I said to someone before the Haskell, I think these three colts are as good as any three colts in the country. … All three of these definitely are, I would say, top five." The Preakness eventually fell off the radar when Leading Change returned to training "rusty," having put on weight and lost a tremendous amount of fitness. While he was shaking off that rust, Cox said he began to question whether or not the youngster was going to be the same horse he was before his break. That all changed around the Kentucky Derby when Leading Change started to come back to life in his training. He debuted June 7 with a 6 1/2-length victory at Churchill Downs. The available allowance races at the time would have asked him to run 1 mile over a turn and a half at Ellis Park or head to Saratoga against older horses. Instead, Cox chose the class jump to stay against 3-year-olds in the Indiana Derby. The whole process led to the gratifying payoff of a Travers win, Cox's second after taking it in 2021 with Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Essential Quality. The experience, though, was much different coming in with a horse who was under the radar instead of an already established champion. "Yesterday, watching that horse run was about as excited as I've ever been. It was unbelievable," Cox said. "'EQ' was champion 2-year-old, won the Belmont, and was heavily favored. When you win a race and you're favored, the pressure is off. You want to get it over with. That was something; yesterday, I really enjoyed, and it was nice to see that horse step up and perform the way we thought he could." Whether that excitement continues to the Oct. 31 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland is to be determined. Wathnan Racing is the stable of Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar. Wathnan values having its American-based runners competing in races such as the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) in February and $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) in March, having won the latter in 2025 with Cox-trained Hit Show. Cox said he'll discuss the decision with the Wathnan team in the near future once Leading Change resumes training at Churchill Downs. "I don't know if we have to go to the Breeders' Cup," Cox said. "I'm a very realistic person; I do look at numbers. Great race yesterday, but he had to fight to win and he showed that he could handle a mile-and-a-quarter. We think that's going to be something he's really going to be good at the rest of his career. "The Dubai World Cup means a lot to the Wathnan team. What we'll do is watch him come out, ship him back to Churchill. … We're looking at the Breeders' Cup Classic, but it could very well be the 2027 Classic." Commandment, Good Cheer Sidelined Another horse Cox is looking ahead to 2027 with is Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment, who had a setback in his training Aug. 27 that knocked him off the Pennsylvania Derby trail and out of racing for the remainder of the year. After scratching a scheduled Aug. 28 work, Commandment was shipped back to Kentucky. "I don't think it's major, just going to require a little time," Cox said. "We still need to do diagnostics on him. He'll be fine; it's just how much time is he going to get off. I think after talking with the Wathnan team over the last day or two, the intent is to try and campaign him in 2027." Cox still has Further Ado pointed for the $1 million feature race Sept. 19 at Parx Racing, with the Gun Runner colt breezing 5 furlongs Friday in :59 4/5 at Churchill Downs. He seeks to avenge a fifth-place finish over a sloppy sealed Monmouth Park track in the July 18 Haskell Stakes (G1), a track Cox did not think was to the colt's liking. Also hitting the sidelines is Cox's 2025 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Good Cheer, who made a triumphant return to the races in the Iowa Distaff Stakes July 10 at Prairie Meadows. She most recently breezed Aug. 22 at Churchill Downs. Cox said he has not yet spoken with the Godolphin ownership about whether she will return or be retired.