Will an East Coast Shipper Surprise in the Goodwood?

One of two Grade 1 races taking place during an action-packed week of Breeders' Cup prep races is Saturday's $300,000 Goodwood (G1) at Santa Anita Park, a 1 1/8-mile qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Nine horses have entered this year's Goodwood. Defending winner #9 Nevada Beach (7-5) is the morning-line favorite and likely the best of the local California runners. He won this race last year by 1 1/2 lengths over 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Full Serrano, and late in 2025 he ran well in two more graded stakes, winning the Native Diver (G3) over future Santa Anita H. (G1) winner British Isles before finishing second by a head in the Laffit Pincay, Jr. (G2) to 2025 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Nysos. But Nevada Beach hasn't raced since finishing 12th in the Saudi Cup (G1) on Feb. 14. A lengthy series of fast workouts should have him fit for a competitive return, but he's facing a couple of promising East Coast raiders in this year's Goodwood, and it's possible an upset is in the offing. Horses based outside of California have excelled in some of Santa Anita's biggest open dirt races this year. The Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) went to #7 Forged Steel (5-1), who romped by 9 1/2 lengths after previously going 0-for-10 against stakes competition in Florida, Kentucky, New York, and Arkansas. Then in the Pacific Classic (G1), out-of-state shippers Knightsbridge and #4 Original Sin (6-1) ran 1-2. As a result, I'm intrigued by the chances of #8 Caldera (5-1). The four-year-old son of Liam's Map showed promise against stakes competition last year, finishing second by a nose in the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby and second by three-quarters of a length in the 1 1/8-mile Bathhouse Row S. But Caldera has elevated his game to a new level this year. He's unbeaten and basically unchallenged in three starts this season, all racing one mile. First, he wired a $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park by 6 1/4 lengths. Then he took his game to Colonial Downs and won $50,000 and $75,000 allowance optional claimers by margins of three lengths and 2 3/4 lengths. In his latest start, Caldera raced over a blazingly fast track conducive to producing quick times. Even still, it's eye-catching that he pressed fractions of :23.08, :44.75, and 1:07.66 before taking over to prevail in 1:32.37, less than a fifth of a second off the world record for one mile on dirt. Stepping up in class and stretching back out over 1 1/8 miles are obvious obstacles for Caldera to overcome. But the flashy form he's shown this year suggests there's a chance he's matured into a serious racehorse with a bright future at the stakes level. If his 5-1 morning-line odds hold up, I'm willing to bet Caldera can spring a surprise in his California debut. #3 McAfee (15-1) is the other East Coast raider who has caught my eye. Much like Caldera, he competed admirably in stakes as a three-year-old last year, recording top-three finishes in the Peter Pan (G3), Ohio Derby (G3), and West Virginia Derby (G3) racing 1 1/8 miles. McAfee failed to fire in his first start of 2026, finishing a distant sixth in a $50,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs. But then in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Saratoga, he ran arguably his best race to date, carving out an honest pace before kicking away to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths. The fact McAfee has repeatedly performed well over 1 1/8 miles is appealing. He's also run well with inside trips in the past, so even if he's beaten to the early lead in the Goodwood, he'll have every chance to settle behind the leaders, save ground, and pounce in the homestretch. I believe there's a strong chance McAfee will outrun expectations to snag a top-three finish on Saturday, and he may even win. #6 Mr. A. P. (8-1) is another price horse worth considering for exotic wagers. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up has competed exclusively on turf in 2026, most notably winning a 1 1/16-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar. Getting back on dirt at Goodwood could potentially yield his best performance so far this year. Selections 1st: Caldera 2nd: McAfee 3rd: Nevada Beach Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Goodwood? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!