Handicapping the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

The last U.S. Grade 1 race before the Breeders' Cup is Saturday's $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland, a 1 1/8-mile grass event for three-year-old fillies. A strong 11-horse field has turned out for the 2026 edition. There are many viable contenders with the potential to challenge for a top-three finish. That includes morning-line favorite #2 Luster (5-2), who is actually one of the trickier fillies to analyze. She boasts a near-perfect 6-5-0-1 record, but her last three wins have come over the synthetic Tapeta track at Woodbine. She's been increasingly dominant and exits a 7 1/4-length romp over Canadian-bred males in the 1 1/4-mile Queen's Plate S., but will that blowout win translate to success over the Keeneland turf? There's a good chance it will. Luster is actually 2-for-2 on turf, winning her debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Woodbine and kicking off 2026 with a powerful five-length romp in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland. Her allowance win came at the expense of Amberglen, who has won two races since then, including the Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. But the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is easily the toughest turf race Luster has tackled to date. She benefited from tracking a slow pace when trouncing Amberglen, and she could face a trickier pace setup in her return to Keeneland. Luster is a logical contender, but at 5-2, she strikes me as an underlay. Instead, I'll side with #4 Faithful Departed (7-2), who has run well--sometimes under challenging circumstances--in her last four starts on turf. During the spring at Churchill Downs, Faithful Departed rattled off back-to-back wins. She charged from eighth place to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance by three-quarters of a length, then launched a rally from midfield to take the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) by 2 1/4 lengths in the fast time of 1:46.23. Her beaten rivals in the Regret included future Del Mar Oaks (G1) winner #3 Tam Tam (4-1) and eventual Old Dominion Oaks winner #7 Storm's Wake (10-1). Following the Regret, Faithful Departed shipped twice to New York to compete in rich graded stakes. In the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Oaks (G1), she was compromised by modest fractions of :23.47, :48.82, and 1:13.17, but blazed her final quarter-mile in :22.15 per the Equibase GPS result chart to close from tenth place and finish second against #9 Kensington Lane (IRE) (8-1), who set much of the pace. Then in the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Oaks (G2), Faithful Departed encountered slow fractions of :23.85, :48.99, and 1:13.43. She finished powerfully, running her final three furlongs in :33.85 and her final quarter-mile in :22.38, but after taking the lead in midstretch, she got outkicked by Kentucky Belle in the final strides and finished second by a head. Kentucky Belle flattered the form by returning to dominate the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3) by 6 3/4 lengths. I'm optimistic Faithful Departed will receive a more favorable pace setup in her return to Kentucky. Rivals like Luster, Tam Tam, and Kensington Lane all have tactical speed, which should ensure an honest pace. Even #11 Soloist (20-1) has enough speed to get involved up front. With a fair pace to chase, Faithful Departed should be tough to hold off in the homestretch. Meanwhile, one longshot worth considering at a big price is #1 Haute Diva (30-1). A versatile filly, she's won the Cash Run S. on dirt and the Martha Washington S. on Tapeta. Haute Diva has only run three times on turf. Last year at Gulfstream Park, she trounced a one-mile maiden special weight and later ran second by a neck in a one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer. Then, on Aug. 6, Haute Diva returned to turf for the 1 3/16-mile Beverly D. (G2) at Colonial Downs. Facing older rivals, Haute Diva got squeezed between rivals at the start and dropped nearly a dozen lengths off the pace--much farther back than she usually runs. Nevertheless, she closed with interest down the homestretch to finish sixth, beaten only 4 3/4 lengths by next-out E. P. Taylor (G1) winner Gimme a Nother. Furthermore, Haute Diva finished only 2 1/4 lengths behind subsequent Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon (G3) winner Stellify. Returning to the three-year-old ranks for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup can help Haute Diva rebound, especially if she gets away to an untroubled start. Selections 1st: Faithful Departed 2nd: Luster 3rd: Haute Diva Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup? ***** Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!