BC Classic Holds the Key to Horse of the Year Honors

For the last three years, Thoroughbred racing's Horse of the Year has arisen from somewhere other than the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). That figures to change this year. With the pre-entries for the Oct. 30-31 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland announced, the Classic boasts five entrants who would be in the driver's seat for Horse of the Year honors if they prevail in the $7 million showdown. That's how wide open the battle for the sport's biggest award stands at the moment. Reflective of that is this week's National Thoroughbred Racing Association's Top Thoroughbred Poll which finished in a dead heat in points for the No. 1 spot between Forever Young (JPN) and reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty—though Forever Young had a slight 13-11 edge in first-place votes. Susumu Fujita's Forever Young will be making just his second 2026 start in the United States in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) here, as well as the Saudi Cup (G1) overseas earlier in the year and was second in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Winning last year's Classic also speaks volumes about his abilities, and beating a classy field of rivals at Keeneland should be enough to sway Eclipse Award voters in his direction. Ditto for Godolphin's Sovereignty, who missed last year's Classic because of an illness. Sovereignty started 2026 in a disappointing manner with a second in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and then a third in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1). But when he returned to top form with a dazzling 4 3/4-length win in the Whitney Stakes (G1), he was back at the forefront of Horse of the Year talk. There have been some concerns about his training for the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic, but if he beats Forever Young and the rest of the field, it would be hard to deny him back-to-back Horse of the Year awards. Godolphin's Knightsbridge entered the HOY picture off a dominant 6 1/4-length romp in the Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) while racing as far as 1 1/4 miles for the first time. He was third in the last NTRA poll. Adding a victory in the Classic to a closing slate that already features a second in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), a 10 1/4-length score in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (G3) and the Pacific Classic would make a highly compelling case. Winchell Thoroughbreds' Magnitude was a favorite for Horse of the Year honors earlier in the year off a victory over Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup and beating Sovereignty in the Stephen Foster. But a 15 1/4-length loss to Sovereignty in the Whitney dimmed those hopes. Given that the Whitney took place at Saratoga Race Course, where he lost by 20 3/4 lengths to Sovereignty in the 2025 Travers Stakes (G1), a victory in the Classic could reduce the Whitney to a case of not liking Saratoga and catapult him from fifth in the NTRA poll into the lead for the award. Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable's Golden Tempo (seventh in the poll) will be facing his elders for the first time and if he can tag a Classic win onto victories in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1), it would make him an obvious choice as Horse of the Year. With those five in contention, it certainly paints the Breeders' Cup Classic as a highly anticipated closing act to the World Championships and the Horse of the Year race. Of course, an upset can always happen and if that quintet is upended, then the 4-year-old filly Nitrogen could claim the award with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Currently fourth in the NTRA poll, a Distaff win would give her two grade 1 wins this year plus a second to Sovereignty in the Whitney and a grade 2 win that could boost her cause. Conversely, if Fully Subscribed (11th in the poll) wins the Distaff it would give her an impressive array of three straight grade 1 wins to close the year. That might not be enough for the Horse of the Year crown, but it should make her the champion older filly or mare on dirt. Among others who could pop into the picture include Napoleon Solo (13th in the poll), who could garner consideration by adding a Classic win to a victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and seconds in the Haskell Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes. At the very least, should he beat Golden Tempo in the Classic, it would make him 2-0 versus the dual classic winner and make the race for the 3-year-old male championship rather interesting. If there's complete chaos and Deterministic (ninth in the poll) avenges a Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1T) loss to Notable Speech (GB) by winning the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T), it would give him three grade 1 wins and a record of four wins in five starts with one second that could allow him to join Wise Dan as a turf miler worthy of Horse of the Year recognition. The 3-year-old sprinter Englishman (sixth in the poll) would also have three grade 1 wins if he triumphs in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). And if all that goes awry, on Future Stars Friday, Hughes could notch a third grade 1 win by prevailing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and perhaps that will be the winning Horse of the Year hand. That seems unlikely but taking anything for granted in races as competitive as the Breeders' Cup stakes is definitely risky business.