Total Performance Data Sees Hughes as Top Juvenile Fit

U. S. S. Valor would have won this race. A little controversial and I do completely understand the decision by his connections to skip the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Oct. 30 at Keeneland with his 3-year-old campaign in mind, but the data he produced when winning the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park ticked a lot of boxes. An average stride length of more than 25.5 ft, a top speed of 41.56 mph, and a clean sweep of our in-race speed metrics. Alas, there is no point wasting column inches on a horse who isn't running Friday and his defection from the race has certainly left trainer Bob Baffert with a very strong hand. Baffert has a record six wins in this race already on his CV, most recently with Citizen Bull in 2024, but is the market right this time around? Here's what our data can tell us about this year's leading contenders for the Juvenile. Bob Baffert's race to lose? Four starts, four wins. Baffert-trained Hughes has done little wrong in Southern California and sets a very good standard for the others to aim, especially as his past two wins have come in grade 1 company. He won the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park at the start of this month by over a second and was the only horse in the field to record a late speed figure above 35 mph as he pulled clear to win by six lengths under Juan Hernandez. That perhaps wasn't the deepest grade 1 race of all time and having been the fastest horse in each of the final three furlong splits, he essentially won as he liked without having to be asked for maximum effort. However, the start before that effort, he won the Del Mar Futurity by a similar margin as he stretched out to a peak average stride length of more than 25 feet for the first time as he again closed with the fastest split for each of the last three furlongs. His four rivals that day have barely beaten a rival since, but the winning time was under the TPD average time figure for a stakes winner over the track and distance and both starts have left the impression that there is more to come from this son of Into Mischief. It is often said the attributes needed to win a Breeders' Cup Juvenile are not the same as those required for the Triple Crown races a year later. If that is indeed the case, then Hughes, more than any of his rivals, looks like the 2-year-old with the necessary speed for this 1 1/16-mile trip and in a tactical race, he looks to be the most obvious winner at this stage. That would normally be enough evidence to make a case for Baffert adding a seventh Breeders' Cup Juvenile to his roster, but to ignore Salahudin would be an injustice. When this horse won the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in September, I thought there had been an error in the data recording! An average stride length of 26.67 feet, which had stretched out to a peak of 28.67 feet, surely that couldn't be right. He came up on our exceptions report, but there were no issues with the data. He is an incredibly long-striding son of Uncle Mo. For a juvenile to record data like that is exceptional and more than any other horse in the United States, he is the one that I am looking forward to most next season. Can he win a Breeders' Cup Juvenile with that size? He can. He reached a top speed of 41.74 mph when winning the Iroquois and showed far more speed than his frame might have suggested. He still has work to do to match the level of form his stablemate has shown in California and the subsequent form from those in behind him at Churchill does leave a few questions to be answered. He recorded a finishing speed of 94% in September and would clearly be suited by a strong pace, but whatever happens on Friday night, he should be finishing strongly and it would not surprise me at all if he proved to be the best of this field in a year's time. What about the Breeders' Futurity form? Ted Noffey won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in 2025 before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. We haven't seen him since so we can't really be sure what might have happened in his 3-year-old career, but the sense that I got from the data of this year's Breeders' Futurity was that the winner was very much next year's horse. American History stayed on dourly to run down the longtime leaders in the home straight, but he certainly was helped by a strong early pace. Both Coach Pope and Q B Rocket went very hard and reached the half mile pole in under :52.5 in this 1 1/16-mile test. At that pace, both were sitting ducks in the closing stages as their average stride length figures dropped significantly inside the final quarter mile. At a peak more than 26.5 feet, American History had the longest stride length in the field, but our stride frequency data would suggest that he was flat out all the way around the far turn to try and stay in touch with the leaders and stayed on past some very tired horses who both recorded finishing speeds below 90% and clocked times above 14 seconds for the final furlong. Todd Pletcher-trained American History has won both starts to date and the son of Constitution could be anything, but his top speed figures have ranked fourth and third on his two starts to date and the possibility of such a fast early pace seems much less likely Friday. Coach Pope may in fact benefit from having less competition for the lead and it is worth noting he was more than two seconds faster over the final three furlongs than the runner-up when he won his maiden from the front at Churchill Downs in September. He has to improve if he is to repel the likes of Hughes and Salahudin in the closing stages, but Coach Pope was involved in a protracted battle for the lead in the Breeders' Futurity where he averaged furlongs of :11.65 to reach the half-mile pole. That was simply too fast for any horse to sustain and it was no surprise that a future staying-type such as American History was able to run him down. The winning time of 1:44.88 still ranked only eighth of the past 10 renewals of that race, even with such a strong early pace. I would have my doubts about how that form may play out. On the balance of probability, the data would suggest that we may see a better showing from Coach Pope, but his shorter stride length will only carry him so far and he will struggle to repel the closers in the stretch. He reached a peak average of 25.74 feet when winning his maiden, but that came in a race where he was entirely within his comfort zone, and this is a much stiffer test. Much like Salahudin, American History already shapes like a horse for next year, but as well as he did to close down the leaders here last time, I think it would require a very fast early pace for him to fill the winner's spot for a third time. Could we see an upset? Earth Song is a half brother to Further Ado, who has a superb record at Keeneland, and that makes him interesting as the son of Justify switches from Belmont Park. He reached a top speed of 42.6 mph when winning on debut in a three-runner maiden at Monmouth Park, but was firmly put in his place by U. S. S. Valor in the Champagne, finishing over 1.5 seconds behind the winner despite racing on his outside down the backstretch. He is a nice prospect, but this is perhaps a step too far at this stage of his career. Similar comments may also apply to He Is No Lie, who has a lot to find with Hughes based on their meeting at Del Mar in August, where he was beaten over 13 lengths by Baffert's star. He did run the fastest final furlong in the Iroquois behind Salahudin, but the winner had a longer stride and better run-out speed and that form seems more likely to be upheld than not. If there is an outsider with a small chance, it could be Damavand for Pletcher, who has won three of the past four editions of the Juvenile. Damavand broke his maiden tag on his second start over the same track and distance as the Breeders' Futurity. The race came Oct. 4, the day after the Breeders' Futurity, but he did record a slightly faster winning time than American History, although a finishing speed of 101% suggests a much more sedate early gallop. The front pair pulled clear in the home straight and Damavand showed a great attitude to get the better of the well-backed Belzoni (second) with race-best late speed and run-out speed figures. It is a huge step up in class from a maiden to a race such as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but if settled behind the pace, Damavand could pick up some of the minor money with experience of the track in his favor. The Verdict I just can't seem to get away from Hughes. In 2027, some of his rivals may well improve past him as they step up in distance, but right now, his data look like that of a Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. He has been racing well within himself in California and yet has still won a pair of grade 1 races with ease. On both occasions, his late speed figure has been more than 3% faster than the runner-up and he shapes like a horse who will improve against stronger opposition. Unless the pace is particularly fast over the opening quarter mile, which seems unlikely, he should have too much speed for the likes of Salahudin and American History, even if they are the more likely to take a step forward as we head toward the Triple Crown races next year. The global database of sectional times, stride data, and performance metrics is available through TotalPerformanceData.com.