1. Fierceness
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Pedigree: City of Light —Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Posting his first workout since capturing the March 30 Florida Derby (G1) by a record 13 1/2 lengths, Fierceness was sharp in an April 12 joint drill with graded stakes-winning turf horse and grade 3-placed dirt runner Agate Road at Palm Beach Downs in South Florida. Perched outside that rival under regular jockey John Velazquez, Fierceness finished a neck ahead of him with a half-mile in :50.28 before galloping out about a length in front. While Agate Road was urged along, Velazquez was always motionless. Less enthusiastically, at least for those who like to judge horses by the quality of the competition they keep, Hades—fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths by Fierceness in the Florida Derby—ran below expectations in finishing a distant seventh in the April 13 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland.
2. Sierra Leone
Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
Having just won the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, he is scheduled to breeze later this week there, trainer Chad Brown said. When he makes his way to Churchill Downs, likely in the days afterward, he will undoubtedly visit the starting gate for schooling, having delayed the start of the Blue Grass by balking during the loading procedure. Of course, no amount of schooling can replicate the experience of loading in front of 150,000 excited fans on Derby Day, who, as always, will provide a collective roar when the field arrives at the gate. Brown views this colt as his best Kentucky Derby (G1) hope since he began training—which is of note as he trained Good Magic , second in the 2018 Derby, and Zandon , third in 2022.
3. Forever Young
Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi
Real Steel—Forever Darling, by Congrats
Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)
The struggles of UAE Derby (G2) horses through the years have been noted in this space—they've never finished better than fifth in 19 Derby starts. So the obvious question is, what is different about this year and UAE Derby winner Forever Young? His advantage is that he is already a proven international shipper, having traveled from Japan, where he went 3-for-3, to the Middle East, where he notched two graded stakes victories. He arrived at Churchill Downs late last week and has already taken a few spins beneath the Twin Spires—giving him about three weeks of on-track preparation for the May 4 Run for the Roses.
4. Catching Freedom
Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox
Constitution —Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
The Smarty Jones Stakes and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner is not a horse that excels in the mornings, making his :48 half-mile move by himself this past Saturday noteworthy for earning high marks. Cox said the work was actually a five-furlong breeze in which he clocked him going five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 3/5. He said the colt has "really done well at Churchill." Besides favorable training there, he also broke his maiden over the Churchill main track last fall in his career debut.
Watch: Fierceness, Catching Freedom Shine in Recent Workouts
5. Just a Touch
Owner/Trainer: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Marc Detampel/Brad Cox
Justify —Touching Beauty, by Tapit
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
Not long ago, folks might have tossed him from Derby consideration, owing to the futility of unraced juveniles in the race for so long. But eventual Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 ended the long slump, the so-called "Curse of Apollo," and Mage won the 2023 Kentucky Derby after kicking off his career Jan. 28 of last year. This colt got started a day earlier, Jan. 27. Like Justify and Mage, he will also seek to win the Derby after starting just three times. Though he has a different style than Mage, Just a Touch was also second in his final Derby prep (the Blue Grass).
6. Mystik Dan
Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Valley View Farm/Kenny McPeek
Goldencents —Ma'am by Colonel John
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)
Like Catching Freedom, he worked a half-mile at Churchill Downs this past Saturday in :48. He also galloped out enthusiastically, clocked in 1:00 4/5 for five furlongs under regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. After chasing the pace and fading to fifth behind Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park to begin the year, Mystik Dan has been taken from farther off the pace by Hernandez, a change in tactics that has led to improved performances. He was an eight-length, perfect-trip winner of the Southwest Stakes (G3) in the mud before running a wide third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on a fast track. He has a win and a fifth in two starts at Churchill Downs.
7. Honor Marie
Owner/Trainer: Ribble Farms, Michael Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein, Dave Fishbein/Whit Beckman
Honor Code—Dame Marie, by Smart Strike
Breeder: Royce Pulliam (KY)
Breezing April 14, he finished about a half-length ahead of workmate Anthem King with four furlongs at Churchill Downs in :48 4/5, galloping out five furlongs in 1:02. The breeze was solid, though not as eye-catching as some of the drills from other leading Derby contenders, but bear in mind he has long been an average work horse. He shows more in the afternoons when he can utilize his closing kick with success over distances twice as long as these breezes. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) over the Churchill track last fall and seems on the upside this year, coming off a runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby.
8. Dornoch
Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan
Good Magic —Puca, by Big Brown
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Rated behind horses on the inside in a quick-paced Blue Grass, he was a touch keen and did not appear entirely comfortable. A free-running trip in the clear is likely his best hope in the Kentucky Derby. Most disappointing about his Blue Grass fourth, however, was his flat finish once angled out into the clear for the stretch. He was slow to switch leads and could only pass tired leader and maiden winner Top Conor in the final furlong. The Blue Grass disappointment aside, he is a dual graded-stakes winner, and he nipped Sierra Leone last year in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in December. A full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and by Good Magic, a Derby runner-up, he has obvious pedigree appeal.
9. Just Steel
Owner/Trainer: BC Stables/D. Wayne Lukas
Justify —Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock
Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)
Though he has not won in four starts this year, he is, at this point, the top-performing Kentucky Derby entrant exiting the Arkansas Derby. This is because its winner, Muth, is currently ineligible to the Derby due to Churchill Downs Inc.'s continued ban of trainer Bob Baffert and his horses from participation at their tracks. (A judge is expected to rule on a legal challenge by Muth's owner April 19.) As for Just Steel, he managed his Arkansas Derby second with a wide trip, earning a 112 Equibase Speed Figure and also a quality performance figure with those services that take into account ground loss. Just Steel is 2-for-11 and still looking for his first win around two turns, though his pedigree and Arkansas Derby would point to future route success.
10. Resilience
Owner/Trainer: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
Conflicting signals from his April 6 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) victory. Racing with blinkers added, he defeated a suspect group—the 2-3-4 horses were all huge longshots—and the race was not a grade 1 like other major closing preps, but he did score comfortably despite early trouble. A close second on the inside entering the first turn, he was placed in tight by the leader, forcing John Velazquez to ease him back and take him to the outside. His journey was smooth thereafter, and he rolled. Looking past the Wood, his green fourth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) behind Sierra Leone was solid.
11. Stronghold
Owner/Trainer: Eric and Sharon Waller/Phil D'Amato
Ghostzapper —Spectator, by Jimmy Creed
Breeder: Eric and Sharon Waller (KY)
Many times West Coast invaders are unraced at Churchill Downs prior to the Kentucky Derby, but not him. He was part of trainer Phil D'Amato's Kentucky string last year, notching his first victory beneath the Twin Spires before he joined D'Amato's primary stable in Southern California. A top-level stakes winner in the April 6 Santa Anita Derby (G1), that race seemed more like a grade 2 this year based on its field. Stronghold was game to defeat narrow San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Imagination with Turf Paradise Derby winner E J Won the Cup in third.
12. Domestic Product
Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown
Practical Joke —Goods and Services, by Paynter
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
This late finisher is a better horse than his modest speed figures suggest. He raced in a pair of tepid-paced races this year that made fast times challenging. A class evaluation seems a better way to analyze this colt. Second in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) behind Hades when Fierceness was a lackluster third, Domestic Product subsequently won the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in a bunched finish. None of those behind him in the Tampa Bay Derby are leading players in the 3-year-old division, with the best of them being close third-place Grand Mo the First, a next-out distant third in the Florida Derby behind Fierceness.
* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.'s continued ban of trainer Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including Muth, are in the Derby Dozen. Barring a successful legal challenge by Zedan Racing Stables that would allow that colt and perhaps other Baffert runners to compete, look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course.
