With each trainer considering the talents and capabilities of their horses, trainers Bill Mott and Michael McCarthy are both comfortable with the race spacing of their classic winners going into the Belmont Stakes (G1) June 7 at Saratoga Race Course.
Mott will send out Sovereignty off a five-week rest between races as the Godolphin homebred son of Into Mischief makes his first start since a clear victory over runner-up Journalism in the Kentucky Derby (G1) May 3 at Churchill Downs. That five-week spacing is in Mott's comfort zone.
Over the past five years in route races on dirt, Mott-trained horses off five weeks' rest (34-36 days) have 21 wins from 95 starts, good for a 22% strike rate. Those horses have finished in the money 48% of the time. Mott's strike rate is nearly the same when only stakes races are considered in this category with eight wins from 39 starts, good for a 21% rate. Those 39 stakes starts saw Mott finish in the money 44% of the time.
Those stats and other trainer stats in this story are provided by RaceLens, which allows subscribers to assign multiple factors in researching statistics.
The win rates outlined above are better than Mott's career win rate for all starters of 19% and 2025 win rate of 17%. The five weeks of rest for Sovereignty ahead of the Belmont is in line with today's typical approach ahead of a stakes race for 3-year-olds or older horses. Mott said trainers have developed a comfort level with more spacing in between races.
"I see a lot of good trainers that have great win percentages and win plenty of big races who like to space their horses' races four or five weeks apart," Mott said. "It gives them a chance to recover if they've had a hard race, if they've had a difficult race. You want to make sure that when they come back, that they're at their best. It's just been in the last few years, it seems like people have been more interested in spacing the horses' races."
Mott said that judging when a horse is ready for another top effort can be difficult.
"Sometimes the horse can run a big race, a hard race, or even win easily," Mott said. "Sometimes they appear to be doing well, eating well, and training well. But then sometimes they'll run a little bit of a dull race."
Mott added that another reason for the increased spacing is that trainers have the opportunity. He said with strong demand for top horses at tracks throughout the country, trainers have more options to pursue that ideal spacing.
"There's always another good race to go to. It's not like you've got three races and the season's over for them. As you continue on throughout the year, there's a lot of other races," Mott said. "So if you can space the races a little bit, and look a little further into the future, maybe it's beneficial for some spacing. It just depends on what the connections of the horses want to do."
Added spacing has proved a winning Belmont approach since the turn of the century. Since 2000, 14 horses have won the Belmont off of five weeks' rest while six have won off of three weeks' rest.
THE ROAD: Five Weeks' Rest is Best for Belmont but Three Can Work
McCarthy will send Journalism into the Belmont off a narrow victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1) where he powered through rivals late and then ran down front-running Gosger to secure a half-length win. McCarthy acknowledged that running in a grade 1 race off three weeks' rest isn't something he'd typically do, but noted that Journalism is not a typical horse.
"I think it is about this horse for sure," McCarthy said. "He carries a bunch of condition. He always eats. Attitude is good; he adjusts to his surroundings very easily. He's got a very good mind on him and I think that's very important when you go into races like this."
McCarthy has enjoyed statistical success starting horses off three weeks' rest (20-22 days) in route dirt route races over the past five years. He's had 18 starters in that category with five of those horses winning; good for a 28% win rate. This group of horses finished in the money 61% of the time.
"We've had some success doing it," McCarthy said before adding, "We've had some not so successful.
"So it's a horse-by-horse kind of a thing, and Journalism seems like he is thriving."
When just stakes races are considered under the scenarios outlined above, McCarthy is looking for his first winner but it's a small sample size of just three starters. Two of those three starters did finish in the money.
"I mean, if the horse is good, I'm good," McCarthy said, before adding with a laugh, "I'll tell you Saturday night at the quarter pole.
"As I've said, good horses, they do things so easily. Sometimes you don't know how much has been taken out of them until they're actually in the running. But he seems like he is full of vigor, eating, doing great—basically all the cliches that we say about horses. It's right there, right in front of us, so I'm excited to lead him over on Saturday."
