The odds for the Kentucky Derby Future wager were released on Oct. 27, with the lowest-priced individual being Ted Noffey (10-1), who is also almost certain to start as the favorite Oct. 31 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
The 2-year-old event that supplied this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty, has already been contested, however. That is the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes (G3), which was run over 1 1/16-miles at Churchill Downs. It was in last year's Street Sense that Sovereignty first flashed his credentials as a possible classic contender, concluding a three-race juvenile season by storming from last to first to score by 5 lengths over Tiztastic and Sandman.
Incredibolt prevailed in this year's edition of the Street Sense, also making his third start and similarly trailed the field in the early stages before powering through the stretch for a 1 1/2 lengths tally over the favorite Universe. Unlike Sovereignty, who broke his maiden in the Street Sense, Incredibolt came into the race already a winner, having taken a mile maiden race at Churchill Downs at the end of September. In his only other outing, Incredibolt finished a staying-on fourth in a 6-furlong maiden at Ellis Park.
The son of Spendthrift Farm's Bolt d'Oro comes from a branch of the Northern Dancer male line through Sadler's Wells, which principally through Sadler's Wells himself and his son Galileo, has been a dominant force in the European classics, but has yet to supply a winner of one of the U.S. Triple Crown events. Bolt d'Oro traces back to Sadler's Wells through the imported Irish champion 2-year-old El Prado, who became the leading North American sire in 2002 due to the accomplishments of his son Medaglia d'Oro , who later sired Bolt d'Oro. El Prado did get two colts who placed in legs of the Triple Crown: Paddy O'Prado, who took third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (G1), and Medaglia d'Oro, who contested all three legs in 2002, finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, eighth in the Preakness Stakes (G1)—both won by War Emblem—and second, beaten half a length by Sarava, in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Medaglia d'Oro has never been represented by a colt who has made the first three finishers in a Triple Crown event, but he did sire Rachel Alexandra and Plum Pretty, both of whom captured the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Bolt d'Oro owned top-class form at 2 and 3. He won three of four starts as a juvenile, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and FrontRunner Stakes (G1), and also took third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). At 3, he added wins in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) on the disqualification of McKinzie , who had reached the line a head to the good, and the Santa Anita Derby (G1), after the first past the post, Justify , was disqualified for a medication violation. On his last two starts, Bolt d'Oro finished 12th in the Kentucky Derby after chasing the early pace through the first mile, and 11th and last in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1).
As a sire, Bolt d'Oro got off to a fast start by earning the 2022 leading freshman sire title with more than $2.7 million in progeny earnings. Now a fourth-crop sire, he is responsible for 20 stakes winners, including Tamara, who won the Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1) and Chillingworth Stakes (G3), and is a leading contender for the upcoming Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1); Major Dude, a multiple graded stakes winner of over $1.4 million on the turf; Ruby Nell, whose successes include the Buena Vista Stakes (G2T) and Autumn Miss Stakes (G3T); Instant Coffee, who took the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and Lecomte Stakes (G3); and the Eight Belles Stakes (G2) captress Look Forward; as well as other graded scorers Boppy O, Bold Discovery, and Destino d'Oro.
Incredibolt is out of Sapphire Spitfire, a three-time winning daughter of Awesome Again, who has produced four winners from five foals, including Fire On Time, a winner of six races, whose placings include a second in the 2023 Winning Colors Stakes (G3). Sapphire Spitfire, incidentally, is the second Awesome Again line mare to produce a stakes winner for Bolt d'Oro, as this year's Busher Stakes winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up, Drexel Hill, is out of a mare by Awesome Again's son, Daaher.
The second dam, Sapphiresndiamonds, is a half sister to the stakes-placed Checkupfromzneckup, the dam of the 2021 Dogwood Stakes (G3) scorer Carribean Caper, and is out of the Unbridled mare, Unbridled Lassie, an allowance winner who also took third in the 2001 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1).
The fourth dam, Lassie Connection, won three races, but more importantly was by Seattle Slew out of Lassie Dear, making her a full sister to Charming Lassie, the dam of 2000 champion older horse Lemon Drop Kid, and a three-quarters sister to 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, both of whom earned classic laurels in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Lassie Connection is also half sister to the outstanding European sprinter Wolfhound, and to Weekend Surprise, dam not only of A.P. Indy, but also of 1990 Preakness Stakes victor Summer Squall.
Lassie Dear, a daughter of Buckpasser, won a pair of black-type races, including the Villager Stakes (G3), and she is ancestress of 67 stakes winners, that also include 2008 European champion older horse Duke of Marmalade; 2011 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) hero Court Vision; Ruler of the World, who took the 2013 Epsom Derby (G1); the 2018 Metropolitan Handicap captor Bee Jersey ; Happy Saver , who took the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1); Profondo, winner of the 2021 Spring Champion Stakes (G1) in Australia; and Raging Sea, whose triumphs include the 2025 La Troienne Stakes (G1) and 2024 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1).
The family is usually identified by the name of Lassie Dear's granddam, Missy Baba—who also produced Raja Baba, the leading North American sire in 1980—or her dam, the imported Uvira II, heroine of the Irish Oaks in 1941.
In this pedigree, the descent through Lassie Dear is more than merely academics. Looking at the pedigree of Incredibolt's granddam, Sapphiresandiamonds, we can note that she is by Mineshaft, a son of A.P. Indy, and therefore has the similarly bred brother and sister A.P. Indy and Lassie Connection 2x2. Since Incredibolt's sire, Bolt d'Oro, is out of a mare by A.P. Indy, his pedigree features the relatives 3x4x4. This pattern would significantly increase the chance of Incredibolt having received nuclear DNA that is a good match for the mitochondrial DNA he would have received through his tail-female line (in this case the Lb1a haplotype).
